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May 21, 2007

JAWS Returns

Cooperstown Musings

by Jay Jaffe

It's the middle of May, and the annual Hall of Fame voting ritual is as far from the mind as it may reasonably get. Still, questions about Hall of Famers and their potential peers--some of them topical, some more timeless--keep finding their way to my in-box, while my big ol' spreadsheet rarely leaves the recently opened documents list on my iMac. In the process of rounding up some of the better questions to come my way, I've taken the time to create a long-overdue glossary entry for JAWS, where the system is succinctly defined, and where I can stash the current positional standards for easy reference. Those of you in need of a brief refresher are invited to start there.

Rocket Returns

Given the recent news of Roger Clemens' impending return to the Bronx, it's been asked how everyone's favorite 45-year-old mercenary Humvee driver sleeps at night measures up among the all-time greats. The JAWS answer, based on the January 2007 set of numbers (which may not exactly match those on the current DT cards), show Clemens #2 in career WARP3 and #3 in seven-year peak. Note that this score incorporates Clay Davenport's adjustment for AL DH-era pitchers, costing Clemens a handful of WARP off his raw total of 199.6:

Player            Career   Peak    JAWS
Walter Johnson     200.9  104.6   152.8
Roger Clemens      192.9   83.5   138.2
Cy Young           178.2   83.3   130.8
Greg Maddux        165.6   81.9   123.8
Pete Alexander     153.6   88.3   121.0
Warren Spahn       156.0   74.8   115.4
Tom Seaver         147.8   73.7   110.8
Lefty Grove        137.8   80.8   109.3
Randy Johnson      136.6   78.1   107.4
Christy Mathewson  131.2   82.7   107.0

Note that the version that's on the DT cards show the Rocket at 199.8 WARP3, with the Big Train at 203.2. Based on these numbers, I think one can say fairly conclusively that Clemens is the greatest pitcher of the postwar era. Beyond that, the differences in usage patterns, integration, equipment, and rule changes to the game over the past century throw the doors to the "Greatest of All Time" debate wide open.