Lies, Damned Lies

Defining a Market, Part Two

by Nate Silver

I hope yesterday's part one didn't lose you guys, because now for the (comparatively) fun part: our team-by-team breakdown. In addition to the attendance and TV estimates from my model, I have provided a comparison to the Mike Jones figures, and also the raw census data from each team’s primary MSA. The numbers in parenthesis represents a team’s relative market share (with 100 representing league average) and its rank among the 30 clubs in that category.

New York Yankees
Attendance Sphere: 17.9M (304, 1st)
TV Sphere: 21.9M (247, 1st)
MSA: 18.8M (327, 1st)
Mike Jones: 16.6M (262, T-1st)
States Won (TV): New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Puerto Rico

New York Mets
Attendance Sphere: 14.3M (244, 2nd)
TV Sphere: 15.5M (174, 3rd)
MSA: 18.8M (327, T-1st)
Mike Jones: 15.5 (244, 2nd)
States Won (TV): None. There are microregions where they’re preferred to the Yankees, but not enough to win them any states.

The Yankees are baseball’s one and only hegemon, and they can steal fans away from other East Coast cities that are just an Acela ride away from New York. Giving them a bonus credit for 10 percent of Puerto Rico’s viewing audience is piling on, but the model thinks that their superior influence rating allows them to outshine the Marlins on the island. That might not be unrealistic, given Puerto Rico’s connections with New York City.

The Yankees have some slight geographic advantages in addition to their higher influence rating, as they’re a slightly shorter commute from both Westchester County and Northern New Jersey, enough to make up for any advantages the Mets might have on Long Island.

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