Printer-friendly

March 29, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Projected Standings, AL and NL West

by Nate Silver

We’ve reached the conclusion of our three-part PECOTA miniseries. This last time around I’ll take a look at the teams in the Western part of the country, and make some predictions that could buy you a lot of baseball cards if they come true.

The ground rules are as follows: for each club, I’m going to identify one player for whom I think the PECOTA forecast looks low (“Take the Over”) based on statistical, injury, or scouting information that isn’t picked up by the system (or where that doesn’t work, based on general gut-feel). We’ll do the same thing for a projection that looks too optimistic (“Take the Under”). Finally, I’ll present an adjusted overall W-L forecast based on these sorts of factors, as well as ‘meta’ variables like the strength of a team’s management, its depth, and its disposition toward or against making trades (“The Verdict”). One exception to this rule: I’m also going to point out one PECOTA projection that might be out of line with the expectations of other forecasters, but where I think the system is getting it right (“Sticking to My Guns”).

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76)

Take the Over: PECOTA is penalizing Casey Kotchman for an extremely poor performance in limited playing time in 2006 that was caused in part by his mononucleosis. I maintain that he’s an overrated player—even his 90^th percentile forecast limits him to .293/.360/.439, which is about average for a first baseman. But he also won’t be as bad as PECOTA’s .249/.308/.348 forecast line, and if he is, there’s no way he’ll get 350 plate appearances with the Angels.