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March 28, 2007

Spring Fever

Hitter Breakouts in Spring Training, 2007

by John Perrotto

A few weeks back, we took a look at how people inside the game viewed spring training statistics and found they saw almost no relevancy in the numbers from the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues. Usually, there isn't much of a reason to put a lot of stock into the numbers compiled during the small sample size of exhibition play.

However, there is one statistic that can be an indicator of potential success for the upcoming season. John Dewan, founder of STATS Inc., has determined that a hitter with a positive difference between his spring training slugging percentage and his lifetime slugging percentage of .200 more correlates to a better than normal season.

Similarly, according to Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority, 14 of the 24 players who fell into that category last season went on to have an above-average season. Among them were Cincinnati catcher David Ross (.833 spring SLG, .406 career SLG), Minnesota right fielder Michael Cuddyer (.844, .428), New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes (.781, .395), Toronto (then Boston) infielder Eric Hinske (.810, .430), and Blue Jays catcher Gregg Zaun (.750, .375).

Ross was truly a breakout player in 2006; playing for his fourth team in a little more than a year, he hit .255/.353/.579 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI in 90 games for the Reds. That was quite a surprise coming from a player who had never had more than 10 homers or 18 RBI in his previous four major-league seasons. Those 21 homers ranked fifth among major-league catchers, just behind Atlanta’s Brian McCann (24), Baltimore’s Ramon Hernandez (23), the New York Yankees’ Jorge Posada (23) and San Diego’s Mike Piazza (22). Ross had 152 fewer at bats than any of the other four.