One of the items in Baseball Prospectus 2007 that has attracted a good deal of comment is the table on city populations titled, “Pittsburghers, Take to Your Beds!” The government divides the country into Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and we used these as shorthand for baseball team markets. The table, which appears in the Pirates team essay, was used as a component of an argument that the Pirates’ protestations of small-market status as the cause of their 14 consecutive seasons with a losing record was overstated and inaccurate, and poor drafting and player development was more to blame.
Of course, Pittsburgh is a small market club. The real question is how small relative to the other markets. Here’s a revised and updated version of the population section of the “Take to Your Beds!” table:
MSA POP ---------------------------------------------------------------- New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 18,747,320 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 12,923,547 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 9,443,356 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,823,233 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5,819,475 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,422,200 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,280,077 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,214,666 Toronto, Ontario 5,113,149 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 4,917,717 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 4,488,335 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,411,835 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,152,688 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 3,865,077 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,203,314 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,142,779 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 2,933,462 St. Louis, MO-IL 2,778,518 Baltimore-Towson, MD 2,655,675 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,647,658 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Pittsburgh, PA 2,386,074 Denver-Aurora, CO 2,359,994 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 2,126,318 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 2,070,441 Kansas City, MO-KS 1,947,694 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1,512,855
As in the book, these are estimated population figures generated by the U.S. Census Bureau through July 2005. The Canadian figure is for 2006. We’ve also included Canadian census data (from Statistics Canada), though it’s important to note that population figures for cities such as San Diego, Detroit, and Toronto do not include people who live nearby in Mexico, Canada, or upstate New York (respectively) who would logically be considered part of the local market.
In terms of raw population, Pittsburgh is low on the list and slipping; in April 2000, the Census Bureau pegged the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area as hosting a populace of 2.43 million; over 45,000 have left town since. That makes Pittsburgh one of two population losers among major league cities since 2000 (Toronto figure is for 2001):
MSA 2005 POP 2000 POP CHANGE --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pittsburgh, PA 2,386,074 2,431,087 -45,013 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 2,126,318 2,148,143 -21,825 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1,512,855 1,500,741 12,114 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,411,835 4,391,344 20,491 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,152,688 4,123,740 28,948 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 4,488,335 4,452,557 35,778 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 2,070,441 2,009,632 60,809 St. Louis, MO-IL 2,778,518 2,698,687 79,831 Baltimore-Towson, MD 2,655,675 2,552,994 102,681 Kansas City, MO-KS 1,947,694 1,836,038 111,656 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 2,933,462 2,813,833 119,629 Philly-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,823,233 5,687,147 136,086 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,203,314 3,043,878 159,436 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,142,779 2,968,806 173,973 Denver-Aurora, CO 2,359,994 2,179,240 180,754 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,647,658 2,395,997 251,661 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 9,443,356 9,098,316 345,040 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,422,200 5,007,564 414,636 Wash.-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,214,666 4,796,183 418,483 New York-Northern NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 18,747,320 18,323,002 424,318 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Toronto, Ontario 5,113,149 4,682,897 430,252 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 12,923,547 12,365,627 557,920 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,280,077 4,715,407 564,670 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 3,865,077 3,251,876 613,201 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 5,819,475 5,161,544 657,931 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 4,917,717 4,247,981 669,736
Should the current rate of decline sustain through the next census, it’s very possible that the Denver MSA could surpass Pittsburgh. Still, it would require a major exodus from the area for Pittsburgh to reach the bottom of the rankings.
Population isn’t the only indicator of a market that can sustain a ballclub. The people have to be able to afford tickets. That brings us to another dimension, per capita personal income:
PER CAPITA
MSA PERSONAL INCOME (Dollars)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 51,964
Wash.-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 49,530
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 48,158
Toronto, Ontario 46,352
New York-Northern NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 45,570
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Denver-Aurora, CO 42,574
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 42,083
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 41,661
Baltimore-Towson, MD 40,846
Philly-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 40,468
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San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 39,880
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 39,052
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 38,439
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 37,862
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 37,694
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Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 37,075
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 36,917
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 36,293
Pittsburgh, PA 36,208
St. Louis, MO-IL 36,174
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Kansas City, MO-KS 35,859
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 35,618
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 35,542
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 35,009
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 33,008
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 32,536
These figures are projected for 2005 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis-it takes the government awhile to generate this data, so in some cases we have to look back rather than use up-to-the-minute statistics.
We can use the Bureau’s 2003 figures to track the change in per capita income in major league cities over time:
MSA PER CAPITA 2003
PERSONAL INC. PCPI CHANGE PCT CHANGE
(dollars)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 49,530 43,913 5,617 12.8
DC-VA-MD-WV
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 51,964 46,652 5,312 11.4
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 45,570 40,679 4,891 12
Island, NY-NJ-PA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 48,158 43,345 4,813 11.1
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 39,880 35,620 4,260 12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore-Towson, MD 40,846 36,757 4,089 11.1
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 39,052 35,304 3,748 10.6
Los Angeles-LB-Santa Ana,CA 36,917 33,318 3,599 10.8
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 36,293 32,762 3,531 10.8
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, 40,468 36,971 3,497 9.5
PA-NJ-DE-MD
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver-Aurora, CO 42,574 39,212 3,362 8.6
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, 42,083 38,836 3,247 8.4
MN-WI
Pittsburgh, PA 36,208 32,987 3,221 9.8
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 41,661 38,447 3,214 8.4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 37,075 34,109 2,966 8.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 32,536 29,609 2,927 9.9
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 37,862 34,949 2,913 8.3
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 35,542 32,651 2,891 8.9
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 35,618 32,738 2,880 8.8
Kansas City, MO-KS 35,859 33,191 2,668 8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tampa-St. Petersb.-Clearwater, FL 33,008 30,341 2,667 8.8
St. Louis, MO-IL 36,174 33,667 2,507 7.4
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 38,439 35,967 2,472 6.9
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 35,009 32,739 2,270 6.9
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 37,694 36,330 1,364 3.8
Toronto, Ontario 46,352 N/A N/A N/A
Finally, using data from Nielsen Media Research we can check on Pittsburgh’s health from the point of view of television households:
MSA TV HOUSEHOLDS % of US ---------------------------------------------------------------------- New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 7,366,950 6.616 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 5,611,110 5.039 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 3,455,020 3.103 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 2,941,450 2.642 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 2,383,570 2.141 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2,378,660 2.136 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 2,372,030 2.130 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 2,272,120 2.041 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 2,205,510 1.981 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 1,982,120 1.780 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 1,938,320 1.741 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,755,750 1.577 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1,725,000 1.549 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1,724,450 1.549 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 1,678,430 1.507 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 1,538,620 1.382 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 1,537,500 1.381 Denver-Aurora, CO 1,431,910 1.286 St. Louis, MO-IL 1,228,980 1.104 Pittsburgh, PA 1,163,150 1.045 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Baltimore-Towson, MD 1,097,290 0.985 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1,030,020 0.925 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 913,280 0.820 Kansas City, MO-KS 886,910 0.797 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 882,990 0.793 Toronto, Ontario N/A N/A
As with all of these studies, Pittsburgh comes out in the bottom half of the standings. The city lacks the advantages of many or most other major league hosts. Yet if the Pirates are not viable, then the same can be said of several other cities. None of them, however, are threatening to make a run at the 1933-1948 Phillies‘ record of 16 consecutive losing seasons.
In fact, although the Phillies of 1933-1948 were perhaps the most abjectly miserable, least talented team of all time, the Pirates’ losing streak is more astounding as a feat of baseball incompetence. The Phillies were the second team in a two-team town, trying to survive the worst economic crisis in American history and World War II. They had no television revenue and early radio revenues were miniscule. There was no amateur draft, they had limited funds for a farm system, and participated in baseball’s conspiracy against African-Americans. They had no access to players from Japan, Puerto Rico, or the Dominican Republic, only the occasional light-skinned Cuban. There were no major league free agents. Until 1938, they played in the Baker Bowl, a miserable little ballpark which lacked the revenue-generating amenities of modern stadia. After 1938 they played at Shibe Park, a somewhat nicer, albeit decaying ballpark which lacked the revenue-generating amenities of modern stadia. Revenue sharing was not yet a glint in Bud Selig’s pants.
In contrast, baseball hands everything to the Pirates on a silver platter, including a traditionally soft division, which is why they’ve won 44 percent of their games over the last 14 years rather than the Phillies’ 36 percent. They can take credit for so very little of what they have accomplished, while so much of the blame is rightly theirs to carry.
Perhaps someday they’ll acquire competent management and will learn to build through the draft. Until then, Pittsburghers really should take to their beds. It’s usually more fun than watching a bland team lose, and a local baby boom would remove one of the props by which team management alibis its lack of performance.
Thank you for reading
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