Printer-friendly

Contact Author

March 5, 2007

Positional Health Reports

Closers

by Will Carroll

There's a lot of red here. On a percentage basis, it would appear that it’s harder to be a closer or even a reliever than it is a starter, yet there remains a giant gap in our knowledge. There’s no evidence, no study, and barely even any anecdotal evidence that says that starting is harder than relieving from a physical standpoint, or vice versa. In fact, many are now suggesting that the abilities to do both may be so individuated and changing that it will be nearly impossible to discover any meaningful generalizations.

What we’re chasing here is a better measure of fatigue. Keith Woolner, Rany Jazayerli, and before them, Craig Wright have all sought statistical models that proxy fatigue somehow. As good a counting stat as PAP is-–and Keith’s essay in Baseball Prospectus 2007 brings it even further, proving something I discussed in last year’s pitching development article–-it’s not going to beat an EMG test. If you can figure out how to get someone to pitch with all those wires (and get a team to loan you their pitchers), you’ll be ahead of the game. Until then, we’re really just guessing. We’re seeing players that failed as starters, trying to wishcast vague psychological models to ascribe that always-elusive 'makeup,' and letting inconsistency, inefficiency, and volatility decide the end of games.

Normal risk is , elevated risk is , and high risk is . Very rarely, a near-impervious player crops up; he gets a . For more on the system, please check out the introduction.

Joel Pineiro : When I ran these at the start of February, the idea was that Joel Piniero would be the closer. Now, no one in Boston seems quite so sure. Signed due to something Allard Baird saw in him during an exile to the bullpen, Piniero has never been able to stay healthy as a starter. Moving someone to the pen seems to be an all-or-nothing proposition–-a pitcher either takes to it like a duck to water or continues to break down. Given that, this yellow is actually something of a positive for Piniero.

Mariano Rivera : The failing of the system is that a DL stint is a DL stint is a DL stint to where it's concerned. Rivera will get tired at some point, maybe have some shoulder or elbow tenderness, and then Joe Torre will let Scott Proctor or Kyle Farnsworth close for a week, which will remind everyone just how good Rivera is. The DL stint is nearly inevitable, a yearly ritual almost. It barely impacts Rivera’s value.

B.J. Ryan : To a man, pitching coaches hate Ryan’s delivery; he was rushed through the minors because the Reds were convinced his arm would blow up. He’s good enough that until it does, you throw him out there and hope that when it does, you have a backup. He’s a perfect metaphor for the current Blue Jays team.