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January 29, 2007

Future Shock

New York Yankees Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Philip Hughes, rhp
2. Jose Tabata, rf
Very Good Prospects
3. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
4. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
5. Dellin Betances, rhp
Good Prospects
6. Kevin Whelan, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Tyler Clippard, rhp
8. J. Brent Cox, rhp
9. Ian Kennedy, rhp
10. Alberto Gonzalez, ss

1. Philip Hughes, rhp
DOB: 4/24/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, California HS
What he did in 2006: 1.80 ERA at High A (30-19-2-30), 2.25 ERA at AA (116-73-32-138)
The Good: The total package, making him the best pitching prospect in the game. His 92-96 mph fastball has good movement to go along with outstanding location, and his hard curveball gives him a second major-league-quality out pitch. His change-up is at least average, and has nice fade and deception. His size is ideal and his mechanics are nearly flawless.
The Bad: 2006 was Hughes' first season with no health problems, and he was treated with kid gloves at the end of the season. He's yet to prove that he can hold up under a full-season workload, although he was as dominant as ever at the end of the year.
The Irrelevant: In the first inning of games, opposing hitters facing Hughes hit .125 (11-for-88) with 34 strikeouts.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An absolute ace--a legitimate No. 1 on any team.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – The Yankees insist that they want Hughes to begin the year in Triple-A, but if he's lights-out in spring training, it will be hard to send him down. No matter what happens in March, he should be up before the All-Star break.

2. Jose Tabata, rf
DOB: 8/12/88
Height/Weight: 5-11/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Venezuela, 2005
What he did in 2006: 298/377/420 at Low A (363 PA)
The Good: Plus hitting skills and a mature approach well beyond his years. With outstanding bat speed and excellent hand/eye coordination, Tabata projects through the roof offensively based on what he's already been able to do at such a young age. He's a tick-above-average runner and a solid outfielder with a good arm.
The Bad: While nobody questions Tabata's ability to hit for average down the road, his power projection is a matter of some debate. Some feel that his pure hitting skills are enough to project for plus power, with others are concerned that his smallish frame will limit him to no more than 15-20 home runs annually.
The Irrelevant: In 2006, Tabata hit .261 with the bases empty, and .331 with runners on base.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A star corner outfielder, but whether he competes for batting titles or slugging titles is still up in the air.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. Tabata will begin the season in the High-A Florida State League as an 18-year-old. There's no reason to rush him.

3. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
DOB: 9/23/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Nebraska
What he did in 2006: Signed too late to make his debut.
The Good: Projected as a top pick early in the college season, injury issues dropped him to the supplemental first round. He's already looking like a draft-day steal. Chamberlain blew away scouts in the Hawaiian Winter League, pumping out mid-90s fastballs and plus sliders. He's a big-bodied power pitcher with the much-desired combination of plus stuff and plus command.
The Bad: Chamberlain at times borders between big-bodied and fat, and conditioning will always be an issue. He needs to improve the arm action on his change-up. He can be guilty at times of falling in love with his fastball, and needs to mix in his secondary pitches more often.
The Irrelevant: Chamberlain is a Native American and a member of the Winnebago Tribe of Nebraska.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average starting pitcher.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – After dealing with tendonitis during the college season, Chamberlain showed, in Hawaii, what he's capable of when fully healthy. He'll begin the year in Tampa and will be moved to Double-A once the weather warms up.

4. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
DOB: 5/28/83
Height/Weight: 6-6/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 31st round, 2001, Connors State (Oklahoma) JUCO - DNF
What he did in 2006: 1.76 ERA at AA (71.2-47-27-86), 3.86 ERA at AAA (51.1-50-20-43)
The Good: He's the best prospect the Yankees received in the Gary Sheffield trade. Scouts love Sanchez's arm and arm strength. His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97-98 when he dials it up, while his slider gives him a second plus pitch. He gets a nice downward plane on his pitches, so that batters find it hard to get any sort of lift on his offerings.
The Bad: Five years into his professional career, Sanchez has never thrown more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues. He's had problems staying in shape, and he loses velocity and break on his pitches as games get into the middle innings, leaving many to project him as a reliever.
The Irrelevant: In the first four innings of games, batters hit .172 off Sanchez, but .301 thereafter.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A power pitcher – role to be determined by need.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – The Yankees insist that Sanchez will remain a starter, which means he's beginning the year at Triple-A Scranton.