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January 26, 2007

Future Shock

Minnesota Twins Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Matt Garza, rhp
Very Good Prospects
2. Glen Perkins, lhp
Good Prospects
3. Chris Parmelee, of/1b
4. Kevin Slowey, rhp
5. Alexi Casilla, ss/2b
Average Prospects
6. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
7. Eduardo Morlan, rhp
8. Paul Kelly, ss
9. Alexander Smit, lhp
10. David Winfree, 3b

1. Matt Garza, rhp
DOB: 11/26/83
Height/Weight: 6-4185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Fresno State University
What he did in 2006: 1.42 ERA at High A (44.1-27-11-53), 2.51 ERA at AA (57.1-40-14-68), 1.85 ERA at AAA (34-20-7-33), 5.76 ERA at MLB (50-62-23-38)
The Good: Everything came together for 2005 first-round pick that rocketed from High A to the majors in his full-season debut. Fastball gained a few ticks, moving to a 92-95 mph plus offering that touches 97, breaking balls gained bite, changeup came around, and command took a big step forward. All of these improvements added up to one massive step forward and a ranking among the best pitching prospects in the game.
The Bad: Garza's tough big-league debut was attributed to a tired arm as the workload from his first full season took its toll. He's still learning how to mix in all of his pitches, particularly in hitters' counts.
The Irrelevant: Just three years ago, Garza went 1-6 with a 9.55 ERA as a freshman at Fresno State, getting torched for a .558 slugging percentage, including eight home runs in 43.1 innings.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: Everything is there for Garza to become an All-Star.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – While the signing of Ramon Ortiz gives the Twins a fallback plan, there are still available jobs in the Twins' 2007 rotation, and Garza is likely to earn one.

2. Glen Perkins, lhp
DOB: 3/2/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, University of Minnesota
What he did in 2006: 3.91 ERA at AA (117.1-109-45-131), 2.08 ERA at AAA (4.1-6-5-3), 1.59 ERA at MLB (5.2-3-0-6)
The Good: Local product has established himself as a an excellent power lefthander, sitting at 90-94 mph and striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings, as hard curveball gives him a second out pitch. Big-bodied and durable.
The Bad: Perkins' size can work against him at times, as he doesn't get a lot of movement on his fastball and it lacks much of a downward plane. He still struggles at times to throw strikes, particularly with his breaking ball. He's an extreme flyball pitcher.
The Irrelevant: Of the 11 home runs Perkins surrendered in the minor leagues last season, five of them came in the fourth inning, despite the fact that opposing hitters batted just .178 (14-for-75) against him in that frame.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – While Garza is more likely than Perkins to earn a starting role in Spring Training, Perkins also has a legitimate shot at the No. 5 job.

3. Chris Parmelee, of/1b
DOB: 2/24/88
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, California HS
What he did in 2006: 279/369/532 (179 PA), 227/370/273 at Low A (27 PA)
The Good: Considered one of the best high school power prospects in the draft, Parmelee surprised even the Twins with his quick ability to transform his plus-plus raw power into game power. Smooth swing mechanics, natural loft and a mature ability to recognize pitches he can drive instantly makes him the top offensive prospect in the system.
The Bad: Parmelee needs his bat to carry him, as other than a decent arm, most of his other tools are pedestrian. He's not especially athletic and is a pretty bad outfielder – with an expected move to first base wasting a good arm.
The Irrelevant: In seven pro at-bats with the bases loaded, Parmelee had three hits – a pair of triples and a grand slam.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order slugger.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – With highly regarded first-round picks Matt Moses and Denard Span hitting a wall of late, Parmelee becomes the system's next hope at developing an impact bat to join Mauer and Morneau. He'll make his full-season debut at Low Class-A Beloit.

4. Kevin Slowey, rhp
DOB: 5/4/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2005, Winthrop University
What he did in 2006: 1.01 ERA at High A (89.1-52-9-99), 3.19 ERA at AA (59.1-50-13-52)
The Good: The best command-and-control artist in the minors, as evidenced by a strikeout-to-walk ratio of greater than 7-to-1. Has the ability to place his 88-91 mph rising fastball with laser-guided precision, while also keeping batters off balance by taking a bit off of it without any change in movement or location. Mixes in a curveball and changeup, both of which are average offerings brought up a notch due to pinpoint accuracy.
The Bad: Slowey's pure stuff is middle-of-the-road, which already ran him into occasional trouble in Double-A, and leaves many observers wondering what his major league out pitch will be.
The Irrelevant: Slowey's final college game of his career was a memorable 13-strkeout performance in which he outdueled Mets prospect Mike Pelfrey in a NCAA Regional 2-1 win over Wichita State.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A very good No. 3 starter, though scouts' projections on him range wildly from future star to back-of-the-rotation starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Slowey has little room for projection, but also has little room for a big league job in 2007. He'll likely start the year at Triple-A, but should make his big-league debut at some point in the season.