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January 24, 2007

Future Shock

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Brandon Wood, ss
2. Nick Adenhart, rhp
Very Good Prospects
3. Erick Aybar, ss
4. Sean Rodriguez, ss
5. Hank Conger, c
Good Prospects
6. Stephen Marek, rhp
7. Jeff Mathis, c
Average Prospects
8. Terry Evans, cf/rf
9. Hainley Statia, ss
10. Jose Arredondo, rhp

1. Brandon Wood, ss
DOB: 3/2/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Arizona HS
What he did in 2006: .276/.355/.552 at AA (522 PA)
The Good: Skinny frame belies outstanding power and offers scary projection for what is already a plus-plus skill. Remarkably strong wrists fire the barrel of the bat through the zone in whip-like fashion, and balls fly off contact with outstanding backspin and loft. Improving approach led to career-high walk total. Excellent fundamentals in the field and on the basepaths. Above-average arm.
The Bad: Wood's swing is designed for one thing: power. Strikeouts will always be an issue, but he has enough raw hitting skills to bat .270-.290 in the majors. Average runner who positions himself well in the field, but might be a little short range-wise to stay in the middle of the infield.
The Irrelevant: Over the last two seasons, Wood has 162-game seasonal averages of 61 doubles, six triples and 44 home runs.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An All-Star run producer who could push 100 extra-base hits annually.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low. The Angels have a logjam at shortstop and a gaping hole at third base, where Wood would fit nicely. They insist he's still a shortstop for now, but he'll likely begin 2007 at Triple-A, where they most likely already have a shortstop in Erick Aybar.

2. Nick Adenhart, rhp
DOB: 8/24/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 14th round, 2004, Maryland HS
What he did in 2006: 1.95 ERA (106-84-26-99), 3.78 ERA at High A (52.1-51-16-46)
The Good: Brilliant late pick by the Angels, who were able to select one of the top pitching talents in the draft and manage his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Tall and long-armed, Adenhart's 91-95 mph fastball has late sinking action, and his changeup is among the best in the system. Breaking ball shows hard bite at times and his control and command are excellent. Arm held up for a full season with no complaints and frame offers good projection.
The Bad: Adenhart's curve can flatten out at times. He has a tendency to fall in love with his fastball, when his secondary pitches are effective offerings that would be even more effective if he used them more.
The Irrelevant: Between May 19 and August 13, Adenhart went 15 consecutive starts without giving up a home run.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter and occasional All-Star.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. With a healthy, productive 2006, Adenhart established himself as one of the better right-handed prospects around. Just 20, he'll begin the year back in the California League.

3. Erick Aybar, ss
DOB: 1/14/84
Height/Weight: 5-11/160
Bats/Throws: S/R
Signed: Dominican Republic, 2002
What he did in 2006: .283/.327/.413 at AAA (368 PA), .250/.250/.325 at MLB (40 PA)
The Good: On the excitement scale, Aybar ranks among the best in the game. He's an outstanding contact hitter with surprising pop coming out of compact frame. Aybar is a plus-plus runner, and he's a Web Gem-worthy fielder with outstanding range and a rocket arm.
The Bad: Aybar has made little progress over the past two years in harnessing his skills. He remains over-aggressive at the plate, reckless on the base paths and out of control defensively.
The Irrelevant: Aybar hit .370 when batting third in the lineup, but just .259 elsewhere.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An All-Star shortstop that is above average both at the plate and in the field.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Higher than it should be. Aybar is blocked by Orlando Cabrera at shortstop, but at the same time, he still has work to do in the consistency department to be considered for the everyday job. He'll go back to Triple-A in 2007, but also is one of the Angels' top trading chips.

4. Sean Rodriguez, ss
DOB: 4/26/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 3rd round, 2003, Florida HS
What he did in 2006: .301/.377/.545 at High A (523 PA), .354/.462/.662 at AA (79 PA), .000/.000/.000 at AAA (2 PA)
The Good: Pure hitting ability finally caught up with already outstanding secondary skills, leading to a breakout season. Above-average power and a patient approach allow him to have value far beyond his batting average. Solid defender with a good arm.
The Bad: Scouts don't like Rodriguez's herky-jerky hitting mechanics, but can't complain about the results. Rodriguez began the year looking for--and swinging at--early fastballs, but he returned to his patient ways in the second half without any drop in production. He's an average runner, and few think he'll be able to stay at shortstop.
The Irrelevant: Rodriguez' full name is Sean John Rodriguez, yet he is not a hip-hop mogul with his own record company and clothing line.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A valuable offensive player who can play multiple positions.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Rodriguez will stay at shortstop for now, and will begin 2007 back at Double-A.