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January 10, 2007

Prospectus Today

Two Fortysomething Ex-Yankees

by Joe Sheehan

When I was in New York over the Christmas holidays, I went out for a night with Derek Jacques and his brother, Jeff. I've known them for 20 years, and they're the two biggest Yankee fans I know, so the conversation naturally turned to the Bombers and the potential Randy Johnson deal. I was pretty enthusiastic about it, as long as trading Johnson gave the Yankees access to the Diamondbacks' deep reserve of talent. Even if the top-tier guys, players like Chris Young and Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson, would be unavailable, that still left a bevy of A-/B+ prospects to choose from.

The primary focus of our pool-hall debate was whether to do a deal that saved money or brought in talent. I came down firmly on the side of the latter; it would mean more to the Yankees in the long run to pick up a lot of Johnson's remaining salary if doing so allowed a greater return in the trade. If leveraging the organization's revenue advantage in the market had shown mixed results, doing so to replenish the farm system seemed like an approach with merit.

In the end, the Yankees and Brian Cashman went the other way, dealing away much of their financial obligation to Johnson—they’ll pay just $2 million to the D'backs—but not getting a very attractive package in return. Of the four players acquired in the deal, exactly zero were in Kevin Goldstein's list of the D'backs' top ten prospects. In a deep system like that of the Diamondbacks, even that might not be damning, but a look at the players headed east shows that the Yankees simply didn't get much back for the tall lefty.

Luis Vizcaino is a serviceable reliever, a good #3 man in a contender’s bullpen. There's not that much difference between him and Kyle Farnsworth, and he’s been more consistent over the past few years. The two pitching prospects in the deal are largely of a kind, college righthanders who are longer on command and skills than raw stuff, and who project as back-end guys in the majors. Both Russ Ohlendorf and Steven Jackson were '04 draftees, and both put up strong strikeout-to-walk ratios and low home-run rates at Double-A Tennessee last year, but mediocre strikeout rates for that level. That's not a combination that bodes well for 2007 at Triple-A or any kind of MLB future. The infielder, Alberto Gonzalez, is a poor man's Erick Aybar, a contact-hitting shortstop without much power. Suffice to say that Derek Jeter's job—hell, Miguel Cairo's job—is safe.

It's not easy to make a deal with the Diamondbacks and not come out of it with some upside, but that's what the Yankees have done. They've added to their stash of college-draftee pitchers—remember, they took Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain in last year's draft—who don't project as stars, and added a utility-infield prospect and some relief help.

This wasn’t even the best package of guys you’ve never heard of; the Yankees, staring at a hole at first base, would have been better off working Scott Hairston, Chris Carter or Brian Barden into this deal than taking Vizcaino or Gonzalez. The Diamondbacks have no room for any of them, they can all hit and all are better short-term fixes than Rule 5 pick Josh Phelps.