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January 9, 2007

Future Shock

Boston Red Sox Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
Very Good Prospects
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
3. Michael Bowden, rhp
Good Prospects
4. Jason Place, cf
5. Daniel Bard, rhp
6. Bryce Cox, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Dustin Pedroia, 2b
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Justin Masterson, rhp

1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
DOB: 8/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Angelina (Texas) JUCO
What he did in 2006: 2.62 ERA at Low A (103-78-29-117); 1.13 ERA at High A (16-11-4-23)
The Good: Every part of game took a step forward in 2006. Fastball bumped up from low-to-mid 90s, curveball moved into plus status, changeup remained outstanding as ever and control got better. Added all up, this is a tremendous leap.
The Bad: The biggest concern is just of a regression. By the end of 2006, he had no major issues – throwing three-plus pitches for strikes with clean mechanics. He's yet to really be tested, and some would like to see him put a few pounds on to help his stamina.
The Irrelevant: While Buchholz set new single-season records for ERA (1.05) and strikeouts (129) during his one year at Angelina, he has a long way to go to become the most famous alumni. That honor goes to Mark Calaway, better known as professional wrestling's "The Undertaker."
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An early-rotation starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – During trade talks in the offseason, most teams were asking about Buchholz over anyone else, and he seems to be unavailable on any level. The Red Sox might skip him to Double-A to avoid the California League.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
DOB: 9/11/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Oregon State
What he did in 2006: .299/.379/.418 at Low A (281 PA); .308/.387/.434 at AA (225 PA)
The Good: Prototypical leadoff hitter/centerfielder. Excellent bat speed and good pitch recognition allows him to lace line drives all over the field. He's a 70 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and knows how to use it – excellent base stealer and outstanding range in the outfield.
The Bad: Power ceiling is limited. Hit for a good average and draws a good numbers of walks, but neither skill is overwhelming enough to project as a real impact player, as opposed to simply good. Below-average arm.
The Irrelevant: While this has probably changed since he received his $1.4 million signing bonus, Ellsbury listed his favorite restaurant on his college media guide bio as The Olive Garden. Live it up a little, Jacoby.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An every day leadoff man/centerfielder. Wait, I already said that.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Ellsbury is moving quickly, as there is a need for a player like him in Boston. Depending on roster shenanigans, he'll start the year at Double- or Triple-A and should be up before the season is out.

3. Michael Bowden, rhp
DOB: 9/9/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Illinois HS
What he did in 2006: 3.51 ERA at Low A (107.2-91-31-118); 9.00 ERA at High A (5-9-1-3)
The Good: Nice combination of size and skill. 89-92 mph fastball is brought up a grade for Bowden's ability to command the pitch, and his curveball gives him a second plus offering. Big-bodied and maintains his stuff well into the later innings.
The Bad: Like many young arms, Bowden never needed a changeup in high school and is still trying to get a feel for the pitch. Scouts don't like his multi-stage delivery and would like to see smoother mechanics. Has tendency to gear up in pressure situations and overthrow.
The Irrelevant: Work on the warm-up: Opposing hitters batted .303 against Bowden in the first inning, but .211 thereafter.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-rotation innings eater.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Bowden is two years younger than Buchholz and not as polished a product, so the Red Sox will take it a little slower with him. He'll begin the year at High Class A.

4. Jason Place, cf
DOB: 5/8/88
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, South Carolina HS
What he did in 2006: .292/.386/.442 at Rookie level (132 PA)
The Good: True high-risk/high-reward player his all five tools and a head start over most with his profile thanks to good understanding of the strike zone. Plus power and speed, solid defensive skills in center and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Swing is long with an uppercut, and he'll likely always strike out a lot. He was able to lay off breaking balls in the Gulf Coast League, but questions remain as to how he'll deal with more advanced versions that are more consistently thrown for strikes.
The Irrelevant: In the four games he played as a designated hitter, Place went 5-for-10 with six walks (.688 OBP).
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An exciting outfielder with the ability to beat teams in many ways.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very high – Place was seen as somebody who would struggle initially as a pro, but after impressing in his debut, expectations are skyrocketing and his full-season debut will be one to watch.