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December 21, 2006

Future Shock

St. Louis Cardinals Top Ten Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, cf
Good Prospects
2. Jaime Garcia, lhp
3. Adam Ottavino, rhp
4. Bryan Anderson, c
5. Daryl Jones, of
Average Prospects
6. Chris Perez, rhp
7. Blake Hawksworth, rhp
8. Mark McCormick, rhp
9. Cody Haerther, of
10. Tyler Greene, ss

1. Colby Rasmus, cf
DOB: 8/11/86
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Alabama HS
What he did in 2006: .310/.373/.512 at Low A (341 PA); .254/.351/.404 at High A (225 PA)
The Good: One of many outstanding high school outfielders from 2005's first round, Rasmus is a long, loose athlete with both tools and baseball skills. Excellent bat speed and a frame with room for bulk allow him to project for 20+ home runs annually. Good pitch recognition. Plus runner with plenty of range in center field.
The Bad: Has problems with lefthanders, particularly ones with good breaking balls, and can be busted inside. Tendency to get over-aggressive on the basepaths and in the field.
The Irrelevant: Colby's already been to Yankee Stadium – standing on the field with Andy Pettitte after leading his team to the Little League World Series in 1999.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A center fielder who bats second and puts up 20/20 seasons (or better) annually.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – Rasmus has a high ceiling, and he's already put up some impressive numbers despite holes in his game. He'll begin 2007 with a return to the Florida State League.

2. Jamie Garcia, lhp
DOB: 7/8/86
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Signed: 22nd round, 2005, Texas HS
What he did in 2006: 2.90 ERA at Low A (77.2-67-18-80); 3.84 ERA at High A (77.1-84-16-51)
The Good: While it's early, Garcia is arguably the steal of the 2005 draft. Highly advanced for age and pounds the strike zone with a low 90s sinker and plus curve. Flashes a good change at times, and mixes all of his pitches well. Groundball pitcher with a ground-to-fly ratio of nearly three-to-one.
The Bad: Body is mature and filled out, leaving little room for projection. Missing a dependable swing-and-miss pitch in the arsenal.
The Irrelevant: For some reason, batters in the third inning went just 15-for-85 (.176) against Garcia, with 14 singles and a double.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation workhorse.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Garcia will start at Double-A as a 20 year old, and could get a brief major league audition by the end of the season if all continues to go well.

3. Adam Ottavino, rhp
DOB: 11/22/85
Height/Weight: 6-5/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, Northeastern University
What he did in 2006: 3.14 ERA at Short Season (28.2-23-13-26); 3.44 ERA at Low A (36.2-28-19-38)
The Good: Big, athletic righthander who can get into the mid-90s with his fastball while sitting at 90-93 mph. Will show a plus slider and a solid changeup every time out. Maintains stuff deep into ballgames.
The Bad: Secondary pitches come and go. Slider has tendency to flatten out leaving him susceptible to lefties. Needs to be more aggressive and pitch inside more often. Pitches up in the zone too often.
The Irrelevant: During a three start run in April, Ottavino threw a 14-strikeout no-hitter against James Madison, followed that up with 13 strikeouts over nine innings in an extra-inning loss to Old Dominion, then whiffed a career-high 16 over eight shutout innings against William & Mary.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – Ottavino is a classic college righthander who should move quickly but maybe doesn't offer the most projection. He'll likely begin the year in the Florida State League, and could get some time in Double-A by the end of the year.

4. Bryan Anderson, c
DOB: 12/16/86
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 4th round, 2005, California HS
What he did in 2006: .302/.377/.417 at Low A (433 PA)
The Good: Offensive-minded catcher with quick, compact swing. Knows how to wait for his pitch and then laces line drives to all fields. Rarely strikes out and has no platoon issues. Praised for his on-field leadership. Strong arm.
The Bad: Level swing and contact-oriented mechanics leave limited power ceiling. Not a great athlete and a below-average receiver, leading the Midwest League with 17 passed balls.
The Irrelevant: Anderson played his high school ball at Simi Valley in Southern California – the same school that produced Jered and Jeff Weaver, and well as former big leaguers Tim Laker and Scott Radinsky.
In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A starting big league catcher, maybe in the mold of Jason Kendall.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Few doubt Anderson's ability to hit for average, but he needs work on most other aspects of the game. That work will begin in the Florida State League.