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December 8, 2006

What the Numbers Say

The Rule 5 Draft

by Clay Davenport

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These are purely statistical impressions from the Rule 5 draft, as we sort out who's where and why. The players' statistics are translated with an eye towards future performance--not nearly as in-depth as PECOTA, but the system in play generally does well, and will help give us a sense as far as what's possible for these guys.

Ryan Goleski                   Born 3/19/82 Age 24   Bats R   Throws R  Height 6'3"  Weight 225
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2003 Mahoning_Val NYP 251  66  12   1  10  16  61  36  33   1   3  189 .263 .309 .438  .250  30   8 266  56-RF   2
2004 Lake_County_ SAL 527 141  21   3  25  42  89  70  84   3   5  399 .268 .322 .461  .264  72  23 274 117-RF  -5
2005 Kinston_____ Car 472  83  15   1  13  28 125  45  50   4   2  396 .176 .223 .294  .187  30 -18 191 110-RF  -5
2006 Kinston_____ Car 130  38   5   0   9  19  30  25  36   1   1   97 .292 .379 .538  .305  25  14 304  37-RF   1
2006 Akron_______ Eas 331  92  18   1  18  32  77  47  62   3   2  246 .278 .342 .502  .283  53  23 285  82-LF   2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors       602 147  25   2  26  48 134  78  93   4   5 1328 .245 .301 .425  .252  73  20 258 321-RF  -6  84-LF   2

I don't know what happened in 2005, but that was a totally different player from the one who came before, and it really distorts the total line; his EqA without it is .272. It will be interesting to see if the big improvement in plate discipline last year holds up; knowing the A's are clearly betting yes. All in all, I'd say it's a good pick.

Joakim Soria                        Born 5/18/84 Age 22     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'2" Weight 170
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2005 MexicoCyDiab Mex  30   5   70.3   65   29    7   30   60  3.71   5   3   0   8.3  0.9  3.8  7.7  3.71  4.28    0   -6   14
2006 Ft_Wayne____ Mid   7   0   10.3    7    5    3    3    6  4.35   1   0   0   6.1  2.6  2.6  5.2  4.35  6.81   -4    1   -9
2006 MexicoCyDiab Mex  39   0   38.7   32   15    3   11   30  3.49   2   2  13   7.4  0.7  2.6  7.0  3.49  3.49   -2    1   10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors   76   5  119.3  104   49   13   44   96  3.70   8   5  13   7.8  1.0  3.3  7.2  3.70  4.24   -6   -4   10

This pick is one I really like, with all due caveats about translating the Mexican League and Mexico City--as far above Denver as Denver is above Albuquerque--in particular. This is a really exciting translation, which means he can miss by a substantial amount and still be a useful major leaguer.

Josh Hamilton                  Born 5/21/81 Age 25   Bats L   Throws L  Height 6'4"  Weight 205
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
1999 Princeton___ App 241  75  19   2  11   9  35  34  34   8   2  168 .311 .336 .544  .292  39  19 339  51-CF  -3
1999 HudsonValley NYP  72  11   1   0   0   1  11   4   4   0   0   61 .153 .164 .167  .127   2  -3 148  16-CF   5
2000 CharlestonSC SAL 397 114  22   2  18  22  60  59  56   8   4  287 .287 .326 .489  .274  56  26 309  77-CF   1
2001 Orlando_____ Sou  89  16   5   0   0   5  18   5   4   1   0   74 .180 .221 .236  .172   5  -4 185  13-CF   0
2002 Bakersfield_ Cal 216  62  12   1  10  16  38  28  39   7   1  159 .287 .332 .491  .282  33  13 301
2006 HudsonValley NYP  52   9   0   0   0   3  13   3   2   0   0   43 .173 .218 .173  .145   2  -4 141
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors       617 167  34   3  23  33 102  78  81  14   4  798 .271 .308 .447  .262  80  29 293 157-CF   3  23-RF  -2

That Hamilton always had potential is undisputed, although his translations never worked out to more than "good." The odd-even "pattern" in his stats suggests a .280 EqA for the coming season, which would have the Reds overjoyed. I'm kidding when I say that; expecting a guy who had a pretty good (but not great) year in the California League five years ago to do anything is like buying a long out-of-the-money option. You're probably throwing money away, but if the black swan comes and makes it work then you look like a genius...a rich genius.

Sean White                          Born 4/25/81 Age 25     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'4" Weight 215
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2003 Danville____ App  14  10   49.0   55   36    4   25   14  6.61   2   3   1  10.1  0.7  4.6  2.6  6.24  5.67    0   -5  -22
2004 Rome________ SAL  13   1   35.7   43   37    8   15   10  9.34   1   3   0  10.9  2.0  3.8  2.5  9.59  6.76    0    6  -36
2004 Myrtle_Beach Car  18  10   68.0   63   47    4   30   25  6.22   3   5   0   8.3  0.5  4.0  3.3  6.09  4.64   -6    8  -15
2005 Myrtle_Beach Car  18  18   95.3  116   62    9   35   36  5.85   4   7   0  11.0  0.8  3.3  3.4  5.76  4.95    9   -9  -11
2005 Mississippi_ Sou   8   8   49.3   45   32    4   19   21  5.84   2   3   0   8.2  0.7  3.5  3.8  5.66  4.99   -6    5   -4
2006 GCL_Braves__ GCL   3   0    6.7    4    1    0    1    3  1.35   1   0   0   5.4  0.0  1.4  4.1  1.35  2.95   -2   -1    4
2006 Mississippi_ Sou  21  16  101.7  127   74    6   47   46  6.55   4   7   0  11.2  0.5  4.2  4.1  6.90  4.51   17   -2   -9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors   95  63  405.7  453  289   35  172  155  6.41  17  28   1  10.1  0.8  3.8  3.4  6.41  5.01   12    2  -13

He looks to have been extremely hit-unlucky (+17 delta-hit) this past year, but even so I can't muster up any excitement for a guy whose peak K rate is 4.1 on a scale where 6.0 is major league average, and that's before mentioning his having more walks than Ks. Those numbers make it hard to believe he could even switch to relief and be useful.

Alfredo Simon                       Born 5/8/81 Age 25     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'4" Weight 230
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2003 Lakewood____ SAL  14   7   66.3   70   45   11   32   35  6.11   2   5   1   9.5  1.5  4.3  4.7  6.24  6.05   -2    4   -4
2004 Clearwater__ Fla  22  21  128.0  137   74   29   46   65  5.20   6   8   0   9.6  2.0  3.2  4.6  5.20  6.53   -9   -1   -4
2004 San_Jose____ Cal   6   6   29.3   48   29   14   16   12  8.90   1   2   0  14.7  4.3  4.9  3.7  8.90 10.04    4   -5  -29
2005 Norwich_____ Eas  43   9   90.3  106   66    9   29   37  6.58   3   7  13  10.6  0.9  2.9  3.7  6.68  4.78    6    5  -20
2006 San_Jose____ Cal  18   7   34.0   49   34   14   17   20  9.00   1   3   0  13.0  3.7  4.5  5.3  8.74  8.80    3    1  -36
2006 Fresno______ PCL  10  10   53.7   75   40   10   19   27  6.71   2   4   0  12.6  1.7  3.2  4.5  7.38  5.83   10   -4  -11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  113  60  401.7  485  288   87  159  196  6.45  15  29  14  10.9  1.9  3.6  4.4  6.57  6.41   12    0  -13

Whatever this guy throws, opponents hit it. Hard. And often. There is nothing here to make me believe he can be a useful major leaguer.

Jesus Flores                   Born 10/26/84 Age 22   Bats R   Throws R  Height 6'1"  Weight 180
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2005 Hagerstown__ SAL 322  62  10   0   8  11  80  27  34   1   1  264 .193 .220 .298  .183  19 -12 201  70-C   -9
2006 St_Lucie____ Fla 440 116  24   1  28  27 106  67  73   1   0  328 .264 .317 .514  .277  66  36 295 102-C   13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors       619 145  27   1  30  31 151  77  89   2   1  596 .234 .278 .426  .244  70  28 261 173-C    3

What he did in Florida last year strongly suggests he'll be a quality major league hitter. While the lines above have six years of growth built into them, even without them he still projects to hit well enough to be a decent backup catcher. The Nats expect nothing in 2007 and are looking more at 2009-10, which means they really should hang on to this guy.

Edward Campusano                    Born 7/14/82 Age 24     Bats L     Throws L   Height  6'4" Weight 175
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2004 Boise_______ Nwn  14   5   31.3   42   35   11   20   12 10.05   1   2   0  12.1  3.2  5.7  3.4  9.48  9.25    0    5  -29
2004 Lansing_____ Mid   9   1   15.7   22   11    6    9    9  6.32   1   1   0  12.6  3.4  5.2  5.2  6.32  8.92    1   -3  -15
2005 Peoria______ Mid  19   0   26.7   26   14    1   17   14  4.72   1   2   0   8.8  0.3  5.7  4.7  4.72  4.84    0   -2   -6
2006 Peoria______ Mid  26   0   26.7   22    8    1   12   24  2.70   2   1  12   7.4  0.3  4.1  8.1  2.70  3.55    0   -1   14
2006 W_Tennessee_ Sou  18   0   24.7   25    8    4    8   23  2.92   2   1   2   9.1  1.5  2.9  8.4  2.92  4.08    2   -4   13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors   86   6  125.0  137   76   23   66   82  5.47   7   7  14   9.9  1.7  4.8  5.9  5.33  6.03    3   -5   -5

Campusano busted out nicely this year, with a huge jump in Ks and greatly reduced walks. I normally hate to bet on someone sustaining a breakout, unless the scouts can give me a good, specific explanation for why the breakout happened. I don't know if they have something on him or not.

Jared Burton                        Born 6/2/81 Age 25     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'5" Weight 224
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2002 Vancouver___ Nwn  13   5   36.0   37   32    1   18   18  8.00   1   3   1   9.2  0.2  4.5  4.5  8.00  4.39    1    7   -9
2003 Kane_County_ Mid  15   2   29.0   25   14    6    9   19  4.34   2   1   0   7.8  1.9  2.8  5.9  4.03  6.15   -5    1   -4
2004 Modesto_____ Cal  10   3   29.3   37   22   12   26   14  6.75   1   2   0  11.4  3.7  8.0  4.3  6.44 10.57   -2   -6  -19
2005 Stockton____ Cal  52   0   54.7   44   24    3   25   39  3.95   3   3  15   7.2  0.5  4.1  6.4  4.12  4.21   -5    1   -2
2006 Midland_____ Tex  53   0   73.7   73   42   10   30   43  5.13   3   5   0   8.9  1.2  3.7  5.3  5.13  5.26   -3    0  -15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  143  10  222.7  216  134   32  108  133  5.42  10  14  16   8.7  1.3  4.4  5.4  5.38  5.68  -14    3  -10

I can't say I'm impressed. These numbers look like a pretty generic minor league reliever, with a strong, consistent delta-hit being the only thing really in his favor.

Lincoln Holdzkom                    Born 3/23/82 Age 24     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'4" Weight 240
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2002 Kane_County_ Mid  30   0   29.7   25   15    1   35   25  4.55   1   2   8   7.6  0.3 10.6  7.6  4.55  5.87   -1   -3   19
2003 Greensboro__ SAL  43   0   53.0   47   32    2   32   41  5.43   2   4   2   8.0  0.3  5.4  7.0  5.43  4.59   -1    6    6
2003 Jupiter_____ Fla  13   0   14.0   11    8    0    8   13  5.14   1   1   1   7.1  0.0  5.1  8.4  5.14  3.66    0    2   14
2005 Jupiter_____ Fla   9   0    9.0    7    8    0    7    5  8.00   0   1   0   7.0  0.0  7.0  5.0  8.00  4.75   -1    3    0
2006 AZL_Cubs____ AZL   5   1    8.0   11    5    0    4    4  5.62   0   1   0  12.4  0.0  4.5  4.5  5.62  3.96    3   -2  -17
2006 Daytona_____ Fla   2   0    5.3    3    0    0    3    3  0.00   1   0   0   5.1  0.0  5.1  5.1  0.00  3.62   -1   -1    5
2006 W_Tennessee_ Sou  18   0   31.3   27   10    1   11   17  2.87   2   1   0   7.8  0.3  3.2  4.9  2.87  3.61   -2   -2   -1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  120   1  150.3  131   78    4  100  108  4.67   7  10  11   7.8  0.2  6.0  6.5  4.67  4.49   -3    3    6

Intriguing. Holdzkom has a good profile across the board, with the glaring exception of a) walks and b) nearly two full seasons gone missing. There's certainly enough there to warrant a flyer.

Adam Donachie                  Born 3/3/84 Age 22   Bats R   Throws R  Height 6'1"  Weight 215
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2004 BurlingtonIA Mid 235  39   3   0   1  17  36  13  17   3   1  203 .166 .224 .191  .165  11  -8 171  64-C    3
2005 High_Desert_ Cal 356  84  14   1  12  36  70  49  37   1   0  274 .236 .308 .382  .241  39  14 254  92-C   12
2006 High_Desert_ Cal 218  48   7   0   7  26  41  26  17   0   1  177 .220 .301 .349  .230  22   6 237  61-C    5
2006 Wichita_____ Tex  97  16   3   0   2  17  19  18   9   0   1   83 .165 .287 .258  .204   8  -1 208  29-C    0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors       588 122  18   1  14  62 108  69  52   3   2  736 .208 .283 .312  .219  52  20 227 245-C   20

A very good defensive catcher who can't hit. The lines are quite comparable to Brad Ausmus over the same time period:

         Majors       586 140  19   1   6  64  72  55  59   5   4  966 .239 .318 .306  .229  56  25 228 359-C   17

Nick Debarr                         Born 8/24/83 Age 23     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'4" Weight 225
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2002 Princeton___ App  11   6   49.3   61   35   11   15   14  6.39   2   3   0  11.1  2.0  2.7  2.6  6.93  7.02   -1   -3  -10
2002 HudsonValley NYP   4   3   16.3   21   10    6    3    8  5.51   1   1   0  11.6  3.3  1.7  4.4  6.06  8.73   -1   -2    6
2003 CharlestonSC SAL  27  20  135.3  161  105   21   47   60  6.98   4  11   0  10.7  1.4  3.1  4.0  7.12  5.59    6    2   -1
2004 Bakersfield_ Cal  26  10   63.3   58   44   11   67   28  6.25   2   5   0   8.2  1.6  9.5  4.0  6.39  8.72  -11   -4   -7
2006 Visalia_____ Cal  40   0   69.3   63   30    5   19   38  3.89   5   3   6   8.2  0.6  2.5  4.9  3.76  4.08   -4   -1   -3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  108  39  333.7  364  224   54  151  148  6.04  14  23   6   9.8  1.5  4.1  4.0  6.20  6.24  -11   -8   -3

Debarr missed all of 2005, came back in 2006 as a reliever and did well. That fits a Chris Britton profile, although the sub-par K rate would scare me away.

Jason Smith                    Born 7/24/77 Age 29   Bats L   Throws R  Height 6'3"  Weight 200
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2003 Durham______ Int 514 137  18  11  17  17 118  76  69  11   7  393 .267 .292 .444  .249  61  15 250  87-SS  -4  27-2B  -3
2004 Toledo______ Int 122  32   7   2   3   6  24  17  13   4   1   93 .262 .292 .426  .249  14   3 248  32-3B  -1
2004 Detroit_____ AL  155  38   7   4   6   9  33  22  21   1   2  124 .245 .291 .458  .249  19   4 249  28-2B   0
2005 Toledo______ Int 190  41  10   1   5  11  49  22  23   6   3  159 .216 .255 .358  .219  18   0 217  16-1B  -1  11-3B   1
2005 Detroit_____ AL   57  10   1   2   0   1  14   4   2   2   1   52 .175 .203 .263  .179   4  -3 179
2006 ColoSprings  PCL 144  37   8   4   4  13  39  23  21   2   1  111 .257 .314 .451  .261  19   6 258  27-3B   3
2006 Colorado____ NL   99  25   1   0   5   7  25   9  13   3   0   74 .253 .315 .414  .256  12   4 256  13-2B   2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Majors       315  74   9   6  11  17  72  35  36   6   3  253 .235 .283 .406  .242  35  12 242  47-2B   1  17-SS   2
         Minors       620 158  27  12  19  30 147  88  81  15   8  755 .256 .289 .427  .248  72  22 247  97-SS  -7  79-3B   4
         Total        619 155  25  12  19  31 146  83  78  14   7 1008 .251 .287 .422  .246  71  20 246 114-SS  -5  88-3B   5

Smith's a well-traveled minor league veteran who can play every position and hit like a utility infielder. There are no surprises here; WYSIWYG.

Kevin Cameron                       Born 12/15/79 Age 26     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'1" Weight 192
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2003 Quad_Cities_ Mid  39   0   57.7   61   40    6   45   32  6.24   2   4   1   9.5  0.9  7.0  5.0  6.40  6.11    1   -1   -9
2004 Ft_Myers____ Fla  22   0   30.7   23   17    2   16   13  4.99   1   2   0   6.8  0.6  4.7  3.8  5.28  5.09   -6    3  -18
2004 New_Britain_ Eas  26   0   46.0   49   24    1   24   31  4.70   2   3   2   9.6  0.2  4.7  6.1  4.70  3.96    5   -3    0
2005 New_Britain_ Eas  43   0   76.3   80   47   13   34   36  5.54   3   5   4   9.4  1.5  4.0  4.2  5.54  5.85   -3    0  -23
2006 Rochester___ Int  40   0   65.0   57   30    3   28   49  4.15   4   3   6   7.9  0.4  3.9  6.8  4.02  3.77   -1    2    4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  170   0  275.7  270  158   25  147  161  5.16  12  17  13   8.8  0.8  4.8  5.3  5.19  5.01   -4    1   -9

A career minor league reliever, for good reason as far as one can see.

Jay Marshall                        Born 2/25/83 Age 23     Bats L     Throws L   Height  6'5" Weight 185
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2003 Bristol_____ App  10  10   37.7   46   22   11   19   18  5.26   2   2   0  11.0  2.6  4.5  4.3  5.26  8.11   -1   -6  -10
2004 Bristol_____ App  11  11   53.7   76   42   20   12   21  7.04   2   4   0  12.7  3.4  2.0  3.5  7.21  8.17    2   -3  -11
2004 Great_Falls_ Pio   4   2   14.7   21   11    5    7    7  6.75   1   1   0  12.9  3.1  4.3  4.3  6.14  7.60    2   -2  -16
2005 Great_Falls_ Pio  29   0   42.0   39   24    7   10   19  5.14   2   3   7   8.4  1.5  2.1  4.1  5.57  5.48   -6    5  -17
2006 WinstonSalem Car  58   0   61.0   50   15    4    9   28  2.21   6   1   2   7.4  0.6  1.3  4.1  2.36  3.69   -9   -4   -5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  112  23  209.0  232  114   47   57   93  4.91  13  11   9  10.0  2.0  2.5  4.0  5.04  6.27  -12  -10  -11

The low K rate still scares me, but this guy's other stats are truly eye-popping. He has outstanding control, and this year he looks to have been nearly unhittable. He's only a year above rookie ball, another thing that scares me. A look beyond these numbers says he is absolute death to left-handers, and that makes this a pretty reasonable gamble.

Alejandro Machado              Born 4/26/82 Age 24   Bats B   Throws R  Height 6'  Weight 185
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2003 Huntsville__ Sou 161  34   4   1   0  13  22  13  12   7   1  131 .211 .274 .248  .202  12  -2 206  38-2B   0
2003 Wichita_____ Tex 296  83  16   4   2  31  42  56  31  13   6  224 .280 .350 .382  .261  39  17 271  75-2B   8
2004 Brevard_Cnty Fla 193  66  11   2   1  18  25  32  18   8   4  137 .342 .399 .435  .290  31  14 298  38-SS  -6
2004 Harrisburg__ Eas 357  93   5   3   4  36  35  49  24  14   8  281 .261 .332 .325  .239  39  10 243  74-2B   4  12-SS   1
2005 Pawtucket___ Int 387 109  16   2   3  32  43  58  42  18   4  288 .282 .339 .357  .254  47  15 257  63-2B  -3  39-SS   3
2006 Pawtucket___ Int 378  95  12   4   5  50  45  49  34  17   5  293 .251 .343 .344  .251  46  12 253  58-SS  -2  44-2B  -4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Majors         5   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0   0    4 .200 .333 .400  .257   1   0 259
         Minors       590 160  21   5   5  60  71  86  54  26   9 1354 .271 .341 .350  .254  71  30 258 298-2B   6 148-SS  -4
         Total*       590 160  22   5   5  60  71  86  53  26   9 1358 .271 .341 .351  .254  71  30 258 299-2B   5 148-SS  -4

A speedy albeit powerless middle infielder. He shouldn't be the worst second baseman in the majors, and he shouldn't be any worse than the Puntos, Castros, Abernathys, and Rivases that have littered recent Twin infields.

Levale Speigner                     Born 9/24/80 Age 26     Bats R     Throws R   Height  5'11" Weight 170
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2003 Elizabethton App  22   0   28.0   37   21    4    6   15  6.75   1   2   3  11.9  1.3  1.9  4.8  6.43  4.53    5    0  -15
2004 Quad_Cities_ Mid  22   0   29.7   30   18    2   20   15  5.46   1   2   5   9.1  0.6  6.1  4.6  5.46  5.67   -1    0  -13
2004 Ft_Myers____ Fla  22   1   44.7   51   20    7   17   30  4.03   3   2   1  10.3  1.4  3.4  6.0  4.23  5.15    3   -7   -5
2005 New_Britain_ Eas  23  23  140.7  158   92   21   34   58  5.89   6  10   0  10.1  1.3  2.2  3.7  5.82  5.43   -1    4   -6
2005 Rochester___ Int   2   1    7.7   14    7    0    1    4  8.22   0   1   0  16.4  0.0  1.2  4.7  8.22  2.94    5    0   -4
2006 New_Britain_ Eas  40   0   57.3   63   32    9   17   23  5.02   3   3  10   9.9  1.4  2.7  3.6  5.49  5.49   -1   -2  -23
2006 Rochester___ Int   9   0   12.0   16    8    1    5    6  6.00   0   1   0  12.0  0.8  3.8  4.5  6.00  4.96    3   -1  -20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  140  25  320.0  369  198   44  100  151  5.57  14  21  19  10.4  1.2  2.8  4.2  5.62  5.27   13   -6  -11

While there's nothing much to see here, if he can really manage a 5.50 ERA in the majors, he could be the Nationals' chief set-up man by June.

Jim Ed Warden                       Born 5/7/79 Age 27     Bats R     Throws R   Height  6'7" Weight 195
Year Team         Lge   G  GS    IP    H    ER   HR   BB   K   DERA   W   L  SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA  PERA DELH DELR STUF
2002 Kinston_____ Car   7   7   29.3   41   34    7   39   18 10.43   0   3   0  12.6  2.1 12.0  5.5 10.43  9.39    5   -1    1
2003 Lake_County_ SAL  14  13   61.3   62   43   14   57   31  6.31   2   5   0   9.1  2.1  8.4  4.5  6.16  8.65   -8   -1   -5
2003 Kinston_____ Car   7   7   23.0   37   28   10   31   13 10.96   0   3   0  14.5  3.9 12.1  5.1 10.96 12.77    3   -3  -21
2003 Akron_______ Eas   1   1    4.0    6    4    0    6    1  9.00   0   0   0  13.5  0.0 13.5  2.2 11.25  7.65    1    0  -14
2004 Lake_County_ SAL  41   1   50.0   50   27   11   34   33  4.86   3   3   8   9.0  2.0  6.1  5.9  4.86  7.27   -4   -4  -13
2004 Akron_______ Eas   4   0    5.3    7    7    1    8    3 11.81   0   1   0  11.8  1.7 13.5  5.1 11.81  9.99    1    1  -13
2005 Kinston_____ Car  46   0   62.7   80   47   14   38   40  6.75   2   5   2  11.5  2.0  5.5  5.7  6.61  7.55    5   -5  -20
2006 Akron_______ Eas  55   0   56.3   41   32    5   35   29  5.11   3   3   6   6.6  0.8  5.6  4.6  4.95  6.43  -14    5  -13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              minors  175  29  292.0  324  222   62  248  168  6.84  10  23  16  10.0  1.9  7.6  5.2  6.78  8.16  -11   -8  -12

Already 27, sidearm conversion has at least gotten his translated walks below six. Woo-hoo.

Josh Phelps                    Born 5/12/78 Age 28   Bats R   Throws R  Height 6'3"  Weight 225
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2003 Toronto_____ AL  395 105  16   1  21  43 106  59  68   1   2  293 .266 .358 .471  .282  62  24 283
2004 Cleveland___ AL   76  23   5   0   6   5  18  14  11   0   0   53 .303 .346 .605  .307  14   7 307
2004 Toronto_____ AL  294  69  12   2  13  20  66  39  53   0   0  226 .235 .296 .422  .245  34   5 245  11-1B  -1
2005 Durham______ Int 225  54  12   2  12  14  50  31  29   0   1  173 .240 .292 .471  .254  28   6 252  19-1B  -1
2005 Tampa_Bay___ AL  156  43   7   0   6  15  43  22  28   0   0  116 .276 .345 .436  .271  22   7 271
2006 Toledo______ Int 471 147  24   3  26  35 115  66  96   5   1  333 .312 .365 .541  .303  84  44 299  87-1B   2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Majors       596 155  26   2  30  54 151  87 104   1   1  688 .261 .335 .460  .271  85  28 272  22-1B  -3
         Minors       607 177  31   4  34  43 144  85 111   4   2  512 .291 .344 .526  .292 100  45 288 106-1B   1
         Total        601 165  28   3  32  49 148  86 107   2   1 1200 .274 .339 .489  .280  91  35 279 128-1B  -2

Now this is a pick I like. While everything in the Rule 5 is a gamble of one kind or another, there's generally a far better chance of a used-to-be coming back than there is of a never-was breaking through...so much so that I'd rate him the Most Likely to Succeed of this class. That said, he's been disappointing before, and he still has the plate discipline of Tommy Lasorda in an authentic trattoria.

Ryan Budde                     Born 8/15/79 Age 27   Bats R   Throws R  Height 5'11"  Weight 205
Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBA  SA    EQA EQR  Val Pk  Defense
2002 R_Cucamonga_ Cal 315  69  14   1   5  21  52  34  33   1   1  250 .219 .268 .317  .209  25   1 213  74-C    8
2003 R_Cucamonga_ Cal  51  10   2   1   1   2  10   5   4   0   0   42 .196 .222 .333  .201   4  -1 203  12-C    0
2003 Arkansas____ Tex 346  67   7   1  11  33  72  43  38   1   1  283 .194 .264 .315  .207  28  -1 209  73-C    3
2004 R_Cucamonga_ Cal 372  73   8   0   8  20  77  36  33   2   2  306 .196 .241 .282  .189  24 -13 189  64-C  -11  12-1B  -1
2005 Salt_Lake___ PCL 199  38   7   2   5   7  38  21  20   2   1  163 .191 .222 .322  .191  13  -5 192  42-C    0
2006 Salt_Lake___ PCL 220  43  10   0   8  19  51  28  29   1   1  178 .195 .275 .350  .218  20  -1 218  37-C   -2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors       609 122  19   2  16  41 123  67  63   3   2 1244 .199 .254 .314  .203  46  -1 204 308-C   -2  29-1B  -2

Like Adam Donachie, except for the part about being good defensively. For those who refer to the last man taken in a draft as Mr. Irrelevant, I couldn't agree more.

Related Content:  Team Age,  Age 27,  2003,  Rule 21(d),  Rule 5 Draft,  Quad-a

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