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November 1, 2006

Future Shock

The CBA and the Draft

by Kevin Goldstein

When the summary of the new collective bargaining agreement was released during the World Series, some minor changes in the free agent compensation rule were noted, but only two lines covered some significant new changes to the amateur draft. Those 61 words have sent some shockwaves through the scouting and player development departments of several teams, as it's fairly clear that the draft will never be the same. To get a sense for how the industry is reacting to these new rules, I spoke to several scouting directors, front office personnel, area scouts, and agents to get their initial thoughts on the new player development landscape.

The Deadline

The biggest changes revolve around a new signing deadline, as all draft picks other than college seniors must sign by August 15th or the team loses their draft rights and the player enters the next year's draft pool. This has many implications, but on its most basic level, it means no more extended holdouts. No longer will we see protracted negotiations going into the following season, a tactic often used with success by top college players such as Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, and Luke Hochevar. This year's top unsigned pick, righthander Max Scherzer, was selected with the tenth overall pick by Arizona; he will effectively become the last draftee to use this tactic.

"The player has the same options he had before, but this creates a positive sense of urgency on both sides," said one scouting director. "Before kids could string things along, or even enroll in college and not attend class and it was a complicated thing to monitor. This clarifies the process, so it's a good thing for both sides."

End Of An Era

With the deadline applying to all but college seniors, the draft-and-follow is dead. In the past, the signing deadline was one week before the following year's draft, unless the player attended classes at a four-year college. This allowed for the draft-and-follow, officially designated as "DFE": draft, follow, and evaluate. The process allowed teams to select a player who might be low on polished skill but high on projection, and then monitor his progress for a season at junior college before signing him the following year. The system created precious few hitting stars, but several top-of-the-line pitchers, including recent stars Mark Buehrle, Rich Harden, and Roy Oswalt. Despite these recent success stories, members on both sides of the negotiating table seem happy to see the system go away.