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October 28, 2006

Prospectus Today

Game Last

by Joe Sheehan

Four reasons why we have an 83-78 team as World Champion this morning:

1. The Cardinals bullpen, which consists of Braden Looper and six guys who combined don’t make what Looper does, was virtually unhittable in October in high-leverage situations. Adam Wainwright, Josh Kinney, Randy Flores and Tyler Johnson—the four guys who pitched when the games were in doubt--allowed one run in 29 postseason innings, striking out 37 and walking nine.

   In September, when the Cards were going in reverse, those guys had an ERA of 4.45. Their peripherals were comparable, but the struggles of Johnson and Flores in matchup roles contributed heavily to the Cards’ near-collapse. Those two guys got critical outs in almost every one of the Cardinals’ 11 wins this month. The improvement in the bullpen is the biggest reason why the Cards went 11-5 in October.

   It’s fair to wonder what would have happened had Jason Isringhausen been healthy enough to continue pitching. Isringhausen would have remained the closer, and perhaps a critical game or two would have been lost along the way. Isringhausen’s injury allowed--or forced, if you prefer--Tony La Russa to put the later innings into the hands of inexperienced pitchers. Extrapolate for yourself the importance of a veteran closer versus just having guys who can pitch.

2. The Cardinals’ defense, above average in the regular season, was terrific in October. They beat the Mets largely by reducing hits on balls in play to a bare minimum. Against the Tigers, they did it again, allowing a .233 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers never walk—just eight times in the World Series—and with the hits taken away, they were left with far too few baserunners to actually produce runs.

3. In addition, the Cardinals’ pitchers took away the Tigers’ one consistent weapon: the home run. The Tigers hit 203 homers during the season and another 13 in taking out the Yankees and A’s in four games apiece. They hit four in five World Series games.

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