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October 1, 2006

Locking it Up

Does Clinching Early Help?

by Mike Carminati

Drive a nail home and clinch it so faithfully that you can wake up in the night and think of your work with satisfaction, a work at which you would not be ashamed to invoke the Muse.
--Henry David "Clyde" Thoreau

New York is abuzz with the prospect of another Subway Series, and who can blame them? Though both New York teams took very different routes--the Mets dominated the ignoble National League all season, while the Yankees needed a late-season surge and a five-game sweep of the rival Red Sox to take charge of the AL East--they both were the first in their respective leagues to clinch a playoff spot.

On September 18, the Mets shut out the Marlins, 4-0, and had a 91-58 record, a 14 1/2-game lead, and 13 games left in the season, thereby clinching their first NL East title in 18 seasons.

One day later, the Yankees clinched the AL East title for the ninth straight season with a 3-2 win over the Blue Jays. It has become so commonplace that all the media could do is goggle at the Yankees actually welcoming supposed pariah Alex Rodriguez to their celebration. The Yanks had a 92-59 record, an 11-game lead, and 11 games left in their season.

The Mets became just the 39th team in baseball history to clinch a division or league title with at least 13 games remaining in the season and the first since the 105-win 2004 Cardinals. Keep in mind that the Mets had to keep their champagne on ice during a three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Pirates. The Mets could have been just the 17th team in baseball history to clinch a title with 16 or more games remaining (the last being the 2002 Braves).

Meanwhile the Yankees became the 75th team ever to clinch a title with 11 or more games left to play. That's the third most games that they have had in hand while guzzling the champagne for their current title run. They had 12 games remaining when they clinched in 2001 and 19 in their epic 1998 season. In all three cases, the Red Sox were the last team eliminated. (By the way, the earliest the Yankee franchise has ever clinched was in 1941: with 20 games remaining, they eliminated the White Sox.)