The 2006 Draft was generally seen as a week one going into
June, as only the group of college pitchers really garnered any excitement from
the scouting community.
However, the performances of this year’s first-round
selections have many people already wondering if the talent level was
underrated, particularly among the offensive players. Let’s take a look at
this year’s picks and how they are doing as we enter the final week of the
minor league regular season. For the most part, we’re looking at a lot of
surprisingly good performances.
Here are the basic statistics for each talent quadrant; EXP
means expectations, with a plus-sign for those that have performed better than
expected, a minus-sign for those that have disappointed and the column is left
blank for those that have been par for the course.
High School Hitters Pick, Player, Team LVL AVG OBP SLG AB BB SO EXP ------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. Billy Rowell, Orioles R .329 .422 .507 152 25 47 + 14. Travis Snider, Blue Jays R .325 .412 .567 194 30 47 + 15. Chris Marrero, Nationals R .309 .374 .420 81 8 19 - 20. Chris Parmelee, Twins R/A- .277 .365 .518 166 24 52 + 23. Max Sapp, Astros SS .237 .322 .314 156 20 34 - 24. Cody Johnson, Braves R .184 .260 .281 114 12 49 - 25. Hank Conger, Angels R .319 .382 .522 69 7 11 + 27. Jason Place, Red Sox R .292 .386 .442 113 17 35 +
The prep hitting class pales in comparison to last year’s
bounty of tools-laden outfielders, but for the most part, they’ve well
outperformed expectations, and we’ve definitely found some real prospects in
unexpected places. Both Rowell and Snider were all but unanimously seen as the
top two high school hitters in the draft, but many saw them as raw talents from
non-baseball hotbeds that would need some time to adjust to pro pitching.
Instead, Rowell has hit .375/.462/.625 in 24 August games, while Snider was
making a run at the Appy League Triple Crown before being shelved with
tendonitis in his wrist. Like Snider, Conger was off to a torrid pace in the
Arizona League before breaking a bone in his hand, while Place was seen as
another raw talent who could struggle early. Instead, he showed a surprisingly
mature approach in the Gulf Coast League. Sapp’s numbers are tempered by an
assignment to the New York-Penn League instead of the club’s Appy League affiliate,
and playing against mostly college players has proven a little bit too
challenging. The only really bad performance here belongs to Johnson, who
going into the draft had a love-him-or-hate-him reputation, with some teams
seeing him as a first-round talent, and others having him completely off their
board. While it’s far too early to write him off (just look at the GCL debuts
of future stars like Derek Jeter or Chipper Jones), the biggest
concern for Johnson was contact, and with a strikeout for every 2.3 at-bats,
significant improvements will need to be made. The real steal here might be
Parmelee, who earned tabs as the best high school hitter in California based on
his approach and power. He’s limited defensively, but his bat is looking to be
plenty enough so far.
Final Tally
Above Expectations: 5
Below Expectations: 2
Push: 1
High School Pitchers Pick, Player, Team LVL ERA IP H BB SO EXP ----------------------------------------------------------------- 7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers R 1.95 37.0 28 5 54 + 12. Kasey Kiker, Rangers SS 4.15 43.1 35 32 41 16. Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers R 5.68 31.2 28 24 33 - 18. Kyle Drabek, Phillies R 7.71 23.1 33 11 14 - 22. Colton Willems, Nationals R 3.38 16 23 3 8 - 26. Bryan Morris, Dodgers R 4.76 56.2 61 34 74
This group is the only disappointment so far, but there are
two mitigating factors. First off, Clayton Kershaw, according to those who
have seen him, has enough potential to makes up for any failures otherwise.
Secondly, the rest of these guys are power arms (finesse high school pitchers
don’t go in the first round) with the ability to turn things around. As you
can see by the numbers, Kershaw has been outstanding by any measurement, and
the stuff matches the performance. Kiker gets the same mulligan Sapp gets for
pitching in the Northwest League–other than the walks, he’s held his own
against players mostly two-to-three years older than he is. If you remove
Kershaw from the equation, the one thing the group has in common is control
problems, except for Willems who has also given up many hits with few strikeouts
in a small sample. Few walks and few strikeouts are a much less attractive
indicator than a high total of both, although it is a small sample and he was
shut down with shoulder fatigue. I include Morris here because while he was
drafted out of a junior college, he’s just 19, so he’s closer to a high school
pick than a college one. His statistical profile is more unique and more
difficult to assess as he’s allowed a high number of base runners while
striking out nearly 12 per nine innings.
Final Tally
Above Expectations: 1
Below Expectations: 3
Push: 2
College Hitters Pick, Player, Team LVL AVG OBP SLG AB BB SO EXP ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Evan Longoria, Devil Rays SS/A+/AA .320 .369 .617 222 19 40 + 8. Drew Stubbs, Reds R .255 .367 .402 184 26 56 13. Tyler Colvin, Cubs SS .278 .323 .453 234 15 48 17. Matt Antonelli, Padres SS .286 .426 .360 189 46 31 +
Easily the weakest link in this year’s draft, but while
Longoria was the third pick in the draft, nobody expected him to reach Double-A
in just 36 games and slug 17 home runs in 222 at-bats. The performance has created a sudden logjam
in the system at third base now that B.J. Upton has moved there as well. I gave
Stubbs neither a plus nor a minus as his scouting reports were so mixed; there
are many who thought he’d dominate the Pioneer League, and many who thought
he’d immediately crash and burn as a pro. A strikeout for roughly every three
at-bats is a concern, but he’s showing all sorts of secondary skills. Nobody,
not even the Cubs, thought Colvin was the 13th best player in the
draft, but he was a solid talent who was part of a much larger draft strategy
who has had a decent debut. While Antonelli has shown virtually no power, his
extreme on-base skills give hope that if even just the gap power he had at Wake Forest shows up, he could have plus value as a defensive stalwart at third base.
Final Tally
Above Expectations: 2
Below Expectations: 0
Push: 2
College Pitchers Pick, Player, Team LVL ERA IP H BB SO EXP -------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Luke Hochevar, Royals A- 0.00 9.1 4 2 10 + 2. Greg Reynolds, Rockies A+ 3.09 43.2 47 14 27 - 4. Brad Lincoln, Pirates R/A- 4.54 23.2 31 7 19 - 5. Brandon Morrow, Mariners R 2.45 11.0 8 8 11 6. Andrew Miller, Tigers A+ 0.00 5.0 2 1 9 + 10. Tim Lincecum, Giants SS/A+ 2.02 26.2 13 9 49 + 11. Max Scherzer, D'backs Has Not Signed 19. Brent Sinkbeil, Marlins SS/A- 3.27 57.2 51 21 51 21. Ian Kennedy, Yankees Signed - Has Not Pitched 28. Daniel Bard, Red Sox Has Not Signed 29. Kyle McCulloch, White Sox R/A+ 3.30 51.2 51 21 45 30. Adam Ottavino, Cardinals SS/A- 3.61 57.1 47 28 55
Here’s where the bulk of the top talent was, as five of the
first six picks were college arms, and there have been some impressive
performances. Hochevar has looked surprisingly strong after sitting out a
year, and I give Miller a plus because while five dominant innings in the
Florida State League doesn’t shock anybody, he’s been impressive enough for the
Tigers to call him up to the big leagues, and the club is insisting that he’ll
get more than junk innings. The three other picks among those top five have
been unimpressive. I give Morrow a pass because of elbow soreness, and while
Reynolds has done a fine job of preventing runs from crossing the plate, his
peripherals are poor. Lincoln has also pitched poorly, adding fuel to the
argument that you don’t give nearly three million dollars to sub-six-foot
pitchers unless they have stuff like Tim Lincecum. This brings us of course to
the guy known by the scouting community as “Seabiscuit.” I don’t
think anyone is surprised to see Lincecum pitching well, but he’s struck out 49
of the 103 batters he’s faced, and I don’t think anyone expected that level of
domination. Sinkbiel, McCulloch and Ottavino are all solid college arms who
have pitched well, and then there are the three incompletes. Kennedy
didn’t officially sign until earlier this month, and Bard is expected to sign
soon, within the next five days according to some. That leaves Scherzer, where
negotiations between Arizona and agent Scott Boras are moving at a snail’s
pace, with former scouting director Mike Rizzo’s departure to accept an
Assistant General Manager position with the Nationals possibly complicating
matters.
Final Tally
Above Expectations: 2
Below Expectations: 2
Push: 8
Adding It Up
Above Expectations: 10
Below Expectations: 7
Push: 13
While on the surface, a 10-7 advantage doesn’t look like much,
the fact that many of those playing above expectations have greatly exceeded
them increases the gap. This group is nowhere near the 2005 parade of future
stars, but it’s also far from the
2000 nightmare that some projected going in.
Thank you for reading
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