August 28, 2006

Prospectus Today

The Stealth MVP

by Joe Sheehan

First, there was Albert Pujols. Pujols hit .346/.509/.914 in April with 14 homers, inspiring mounds of copy about what a superstar would look like in the nominal post-steroids era, as well as speculation that he could make a run at the single-season home-run record. After all, it’s been five years.

On June 3, however, Pujols injured his right oblique and missed two weeks. Since returning from that injury, he’s been a great player, but not one having a season for the ages or a lock for an MVP award. He hit 25 homers in 185 AB before going on the DL; he’s hit 13 in 230 ABs since, and while he’s still maintaining his high batting average and OBP, the diminished power has impacted his value.

With Pujols stepping back from history to merely be amazing, the floor was open, and Carlos Beltran danced on. Already off to a terrific start, Beltran strung together three 1000-OPS months through the summer, sprinkling in a series of highlight-reel moments that made Mets fans forget his struggles in 2005. The Mets’ center fielder is the best player on the best team in baseball, a pretty good working definition of a Most Valuable Player.

For many, the discussion of National League Most Valuable Player comes down to these two players. Without dismissing their credentials—I’m likely to choose one or the other to top my ballot—I’m here to argue that there’s a third name who’s being overlooked, a player who has been about as valuable as those two players but who gets no mention when discussing postseason hardware:

                   AVG   OBP   SLG   EqA    VORP    FRAR   WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Albert Pujols     .323  .424  .665  .345    65.4      19     8.8
Carlos Beltran    .286  .390  .633  .328    62.8      25     9.0
Player X          .340  .429  .590  .338    66.0      18     9.0

If you’re of a mind to consider the context of a player’s performance, note that he’s been the best player on a team that is just three games out of the wild card, easily the biggest reason why this team—picked to be the worst in the NL by many—is playing relevant games this deep into the season. He’s accumulated more batting runs (BRAR) than any two of his teammates combined, making him arguably more important to his lineup than either of the other players are to theirs. Back at his original position, he’s played surprisingly good defense, on par with the work of two guys who might win Gold Gloves this year.

There’s just no good reason why Miguel Cabrera isn’t getting more attention this year. His performance is on par with the consensus two best players in the league, he’s helped put the Marlins into the playoff picture, and he’s a young star who’s already been part of a champiosnhip team and is just entering his peak. He’s even come up big as the games have taken on more meaning: he’s hitting a ridiculous .400/.449/.744 in August, helping the Fish to a 14-10 month and a legitimate chance at the wild card. You can’t even make the Jermaine Dye case against Cabrera, the argument that while he probably deserves to be mentioned as a downballot guy, he’s not really a candidate for the top spot. Cabrera has done just as much on the field as Pujols and Beltran have, and deserves just as much consideration as those two are getting.

Unlike the AL, the NL has just these three players as MVP candidates. The next-best hitters in the league are Lance Berkman and Chase Utley, both about a win behind the big three. Brandon Webb started the year as an MVP candidate, but he’s fallen back from those lofty heights; there are no pitchers in the conversation.

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