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August 17, 2006

Future Shock

Position Breakdown: Left-Handed Starters

by Kevin Goldstein

Left-handed pitchers are always at a premium, and the reasons are obvious. While studies vary, it's generally accepted that 10-15% of the population is left-handed, yet in any one year 25-30% of the pitching population is southpaw. This means lefthanders have more than twice the chance to make it to the big leagues as a pitcher than righties, so parents: start tying that right hand behind your child's back as soon as possible. This also explains why it's hard to find lefthanders with the same stuff as the top righthanders, as we are selecting more from a much smaller pool. So in summary, righthanders are generally better pitchers than lefthanders, but a good lefty is more valuable. OK, enough of that, onto the sinistras.

1. Scott Elbert, Dodgers

Age: 21.0 H/9: 5.88 BB/9: 4.86 K/9: 11.03

This is another one of those mid-to-late first-round picks that allows Logan White's status as a scouting legend to grow. In 2003, he got Chad Billingsley with the 24th pick, and the next year, he drafted Elbert with the 17th overall selection. Elbert tore through the Florida State League this year in the first half of the season, and was almost untouchable in his last seven games:

 IP    H  R  BB  SO   ERA
-------------------------
30.2  14  3  16  44  0.88

Now that's how you get to Double-A before your 21st birthday. Not that the Southern League has been much more of a challenge, as opposing hitters are batting .176 off Elbert, who has also registered 55 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. Elbert entered the year with very good stuff, but it's gotten better all around this season. His fastball now consistently sits at 90-93 and touches 95 mph, while he has also shown the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games. His slider is a plus pitch if you are only measuring break, but as you can see by the walk rate, he has trouble throwing it for strikes at times. He's the rare tue power lefty, he's coming very quickly and he could be on the Chad Billingsley development path, landing in the majors by mid-2007 if his current run of success continues.