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No Bang Off the Bench? (08/09)

August 9, 2006

Prospectus Hit List

Week of August 6th

by Jay Jaffe

RkTeam
Overall W-L
Week W-L
Hit List Factor
Trend
Comment

1


Tigers
75-36
5-2
.631
Flat
Three Cheers for Pitching Depth: having just crossed the 130-inning barrier in his last outing, Justin Verlander misses a start due to fatigue, but Wil Ledezma picks up the slack with 5.2 innings of shutout ball. Smart move, because such rest is the key to building a winner, reminds Will Carroll. With the Tigers continuing their stranglehold on the AL Central and holding the Hit List's top spot for the eighth straight week, Rany Jazayerli traces the highs and lows of the Dave Dombrowski regime, noting that the team is on pace to exceed even the 29-game improvement they made from 2003 to 2004, and that good scouting has uncovered gems that the stats might have missed. A must-read.

2


Yankees
66-42
5-1
.609
Up
If you were weeping for the Yankeess as they soldiered on without Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, and a competent fifth starter, you can officially stop now. The new-look lineup, with Bobby Abreu (.400/.464/.520 for the week), Craig Wilson (.313/.313/.438) and Cory Lidle (6 IP, 1 ER in his sweltering debut) rolls over opponents by a combined margin of 31-14, winning the 11th series of their last 13, taking over first place from the Red Sox and opening up their widest lead (two games) of the season. Abreu still hasn't homered in his last 157 ABs, but he's hit in his last five games and is seeing a robust 4.71 pitches/PA (better than his MLB-high 4.47 with Philly)--another tough hitter to grind opposing pitchers down. Jim Baker checks out the benefits of teams with high walk counts, while Will Carroll points out that Matsui is still weeks from returning.

3


Mets
66-44
3-3
.580
Down
With an eye towards the opening of their new ballpark in 2009, not to mention that cable TV moolah, the Mets lock up the young left side of their infield (currently ranked 11th and 12th in the NL in VORP); Jose Reyes signs a four-year, $23.5 million extension, while David Wright inks a six-year, $55 million pact. Fine deals given that PECOTA sees the 23-year-old duo's Marginal Values Above Replacement Player (MORP) over the next four years as well beyond that: $33.3 million for Reyes, $57.7 million for for Wright. On the field, the week's highlight is John Maine, who extends his scoreless string to 23 innings, out of just 39 overall.

4


White Sox
65-44
4-2
.578
Up
The Sox are just 8-13 since the All-Star break, but at least they've gotten their first winning week of the second half out of the way. They're in a brutal stretch of schedule, having played 15 of their 21 second-half games against opponents with winning records. The forecast calls for more of the same: winners in 17 of their next 21 games as well, but with seven of those against the Tigers and six against the Twins, they might shake up the Central a bit. Jon Garland has been pitching better since the ASB (3.42 ERA, compared to 5.37 before) by cutting down on the big flies (0.34 HR/9, down from 1.57), but sound the alarm bells for Jose Contreras; he's been struggling (4.93 ERA vs. 3.38 before) as his strikeout rate has plummeted dramatically (.183 K/PA to .104).

5


Red Sox
65-45
3-4
.571
Down
David Ortiz racks up his fifth walk-off hit this season, and becomes the first Boston hitter to bash 40 homers in three straight years. But even with a pair of walk-off wins against the Indians, it's a rough week for the Sox. Their lack of deadline activity looks more conspicuous as they surrender first place to the revamped Yankees, then lose Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli to injuries, forcing the emergency acquisition of Javy Lopez--not to be confused with the team's spot(ty) lefty, Javier Lopez. The 35-year-old backstop isn't hitting much this year (.265/.314/.412 with Baltimore, 0-for-19 so far with the Sox), and he's caught just 24 games now, yielding 20 steals in the process. Overall, he's at -0.2 WARP. Hell, Ken Huckaby can give you that with Corky Miller stapled to his ass.

6


Twins
65-45
5-2
.567
Up
The Twins have surged into the Wild Card picture (overall Postseason Odds: 31.6 percent) but the same pitching that led the charge is showing signs of wear. Most notably, a sore elbow forces AL VORP leader Francisco Liriano to skip a start, this after a 12-K performance against the Tigers. Brad Radke is dealing with a torn labrum and intermittent impingement--mostly successfully, considering he's yielded just a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts (80.2 IP) since May 29. Johan Santana has been slowed by back spasms and hamstring cramps; he's yielded a 4.91 ERA since the beginning of July (44 IP) though he's still first in the AL in SNLVAR (5.3) and second to Liriano in VORP (50.3, compared to 51.7). Kevin Goldstein wonders if Double-A phenom Matt Garza will be called up to join the rotation down the stretch. Late note: yes on Garza, with Liriano to the DL. Gulp...

7


Blue Jays
58-53
1-5
.550
Down
Whaddaya know, but Shea Hillenbrand was right: the ship IS sinking. The Jays lose eight in a row and 10 out of 12, essentially snuffing their slim Postseason Odds; they're down to 2.1 percent. So much for any notions of an improved rotation; since the All-Star break, Jays starters besides Roy Halladay have averaged just 5.09 IP/GS while yielding a 5.69 ERA. As if that's not bad enough, this week it's the offense going down the tubes, surrendering the league lead in Equivalent Average after scoring just 16 runs while hitting .212/.284/.354.

8


57-54
3-4
.540
Up
A rough week for the Angels, as they lose ground in the AL West race and may have to go the rest of the way without Bartolo Colon, who's got a partially torn rotator cuff. The AL's defending Cy Young winner has been a shadow of his former self (5.11 ERA, 1.75 HR/9, .123 K/PA, 0.1 SNLVAR compared to 3.48 ERA, 1.05 HR/9 and .173 K/PA, 6.7 SNLVAR last year). Luckily, rookie Joe Saunders has stepped in with aplomb, allowing just three runs in 21 IP. The in-season boost he and Jered Weaver have provided has helped the Halos to the third best SNLVAR in the AL (13.8) despite such drags as Colon and Jeff Weaver. Meanwhile, in the department of Told Ya So, Howie Kendrick is riding a 16-game hitting streak (.409/.426/.606).

9


Dodgers
56-55
6-0
.526
Up
Having lost 13 of 14 immediately after the All-Star break, the Dodgers rally back by winning nine straight to reclaim a share of second place in the NL West; their Postseason Odds have bounced back to 43.1 percent. Patch or no, Greg Maddux tosses a rain-curtailed six no-hit innings in his Dodger debut, while Chad Billingsley continues to improve; he's yielded just seven runs over his last five starts (29 IP), though his K/BB ratio remains an unsightly 35/41. At the plate, Andre Ethier keeps raking; thanks to a 10-game hitting streak, he's at .349/.394/.565 for the year, while carrying the team's second-best VORP at 26.2.

10


Rangers
56-56
4-3
.522
Down
Mark Teixeira clubs four homers in a three-day span; he's already got nine in the second half, matching his entire first-half output. Teixeira is locked in, hitting .309/.458/.654 with 21 UIBB in 107 PA since the All-Star break, compared to .275/.353/.445 with 34 UIBB in 397 PA prior. On the hill, it's a wild week for Adam Eaton as he blanks the Twins for six frames in his second start off the DL, then gets ejected in the first inning of his next start for throwing behind Juan Rivera after a Garret Anderson homer. The Rangers certainly need Eaton to step up, particularly with last week's acquisition, Kip Wells, already about to miss a start; the rotation's 10.4 SNLVAR is fourth-worst in the AL, and that's no way to go through a pennant race.

11


Padres
58-53
3-3
.518
Flat
Chan Ho Park endures a scary bout of intestinal bleeding, but blood transfusions from Katie Peavy (Jake's wife) and team massage therapist Kelly Calabrese (Keith Hernandez's nemesis) help save the day. Prior to the illness, Park had endured a tough stretch on the mound (5.92 ERA in July), but he's hardly the only Padre starter struggling; Chris Young is averaging just 5.28 IP/GS while yielding a 6.25 ERA since June. Good news: Peavy has strung together three decent starts in a row (19.1 IP, 4 ER, 17 K) and six Quality Starts in his last nine. At the plate, Adrian Gonzalez has been hitting .348/.397/.607 since June 1; his 25.6 VORP is second on the team.

12


Indians
47-63
2-5
.515
Down
Burial Grounds: a typical week for the 2006 Indians, who are outscored by just one run for the week, yet lose five one-run games (including two walk-offs to the Red Sox). Thanks to a bullpen that's the worst in the majors with -2.568 WXRL, the Tribe is now 9-19 in one-run games, a big reason why they're a whopping 15.1 games below their third-order win projection. The toughest love is for rookie Fausto Carmona, who blows three saves in a row--he's yet to convert one successfully and is already out as closer--yielding 11 runs in 2.2 innings while while being hung with the loss four times in a seven-day span. Oof.

13


Athletics
60-51
5-1
.505
Up
Despite a lower back strain that DLs Bobby Crosby and back spasms that slow Mark Kotsay amid a 13-game hitting streak, it's a healthy week for the A's. The remedy: their rivals up north, the Mariners, who they've now beaten 12 straight times. In all, the A's have won nine of 11 to open up a three-game lead on the Angels and up their Postseason Odds to 48.3 percent. Despite a fever, Milton Bradley continues his post-DL tear with a .316/.381/.632 line. Speaking of which, Frank Thomas is hitting .294/.419/.532 since being activated on June 30. On the hilll, Dan Haren has been lights out lately, yielding four runs and posting a 16/3 K/BB in his past 23 innings, with two of his three starts coming against the Red Sox and Angels--not too shabby.

14


Rockies
54-56
4-2
.503
Up
Natural's Not It: after stumbling to a 1-8 record to start the second half, the Rockies have put together back-to-back winning weeks (8-5) by snuffing out opposing offenses to the tune of a 2.42 ERA; Byung-Hyun Kim, Jeff Francis and Jason Jennings have posted a 1.15 ERA in 62.2 innings in that span. That's not really the way it should be, argues Joe Sheehan, who studies the Coors Field numbers and concludes there's something rotten in Denver: overzealous humidor usage. Rox pitchers have improved relative to years past, but the dampening of the scoring environment might be setting a dubious precedent, worries Sheehan. It sure isn't helping the Rockies' offense; even after adjusting for the low-scoring context, their hitters' .249 EqA is last in the majors.

15


Cardinals
60-50
2-4
.500
Down
After a 10-3 burst to start the second half, the Cardinals endure their second eight-game losing streak of the season. Jeff Weaver has been brutal since returning to the NL--more brutal than as an Angel, even--surrendering 18 runs in 18.2 frames through his four starts, but Tony LaRussa, who's got a thing for dogs, vows to keep him in the rotation. Fortunately for the Cards, Jeff Suppan has been picking up the slack (1.95 ERA in 32.1 second-half innings), Mark Mulder is progressing in his rehab assignment, and Chris Carpenter appears to have dodged a bullet--though not the grounder that bruised his thumb--and will take his turn on schedule. Meanwhile, Albert Pujols proves he's human by going all of 33 at-bats without a homer. Somewhere, a Jason Tyner bobblehead is crying.

16


Reds
57-54
2-4
.497
Down
A lackluster week leaves the Reds unable to capitalize on the Cardinals' slump, and with the unhelpful Gary Majewski (-1.419 WXRL) and Brandon Claussen (-3.1 VORP, 0.7 SNLVAR) both down (the latter done for the year), Wayne Krivsky decides the solution is... Ryan Franklin? Greaaaat, another mediocre flyball pitcher for a park that punishes same, though to be fair, Franklin's GB% this year (48.1) is well above his 37, 38, and 42 percent performances of years past. And at least the Reds didn't tap thoroughly useless Wayne Franklin, unlike some teams we could name. As for the division's cornrow gap (discussed in the context of the Cards' acquisition of Ronnie Belliard last week), Bronson Arroyo's headed for a new 'do to help him find his groove: the Bo Derek look in search of win number 10.

17


Diamondbacks
56-55
3-4
.493
Down
Having already discarded his older half brother after just nine starts, the Diamondbacks trade prospects for Livan Hernandez in an attempt to bolster their shaky rotation. Caveat emptor: Hernandez's 5.34 ERA is the highest of his career, and though he's averaging just 6.11 IP/GS, 0.75 below his career norm, he's still topping our Pitcher Abuse Points chart, as he's done for the past two years. To be fair, he's pitched better lately, with five Quality Starts in a row (33 IP, 12 ER, 4 BB, 23 K). The Snakes are in a bind because Brandon Webb--tops in the majors in SNLVAR (5.8) and VORP, making him arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now--is dealing with a mild flexor tendon sprain (mild if it's not your pennant hopes) and will miss his next start. Without him, fuhggedaboutit--this staff's ERA is 5.10.

18


Giants
53-58
2-4
.486
Flat
Garbage Time: another lackluster week sends the Giants--losers of 11 out of 13--sliding further down the NL West standings. Barry Bonds is ejected for arguing a called strike, and Generic Telecom Company Park fans pelt the field with trash, to the point that the visiting Rockies take cover. After missing a couple of games due to a swollen knee, Bonds breaks out of a 1-for-19 slump with six hits in four games, including homer number 723 prior to his ejection. But the rest of the offense has ground to a halt, hitting .261/.304/.391 and averaging just 3.69 runs per game during the slide, with recent acquisition Shea Hillenbrand (.240/.255/.380) one of the more conspicuously egregious offenders, and Pedro Feliz (.196/.260/.304) reminding us all that he's just really bad.

19


Braves
51-59
3-3
.485
Up
You Ain't Goin' Nowhere: After peddling him at the trade deadline, the Braves try to deal Andruw Jones via waivers on the eve of his gaining 10-and-5 rights. But despite being claimed (Astros? Angels?), the 29-year-old Jones (hitting .274/.357/.523 and with one year and $13.5 mil left on his contract) is staying put. The rest of the Braves aren't going anywhere either, not after skidding to a 4-9 record since they got within hailing distance of .500. For starters, the rotation is simply too thin; since the All-Star break, Tim Hudson, Jason Shiell and Chuck James have yielded an 8.79 ERA while averaging just 4.69 innings per start, and the staff outside of John Smoltz has combined for just 5.8 SNLVAR overall. Revamped bullpen or no (and with retreads like Wayne Franklin, Chad Paronto and Tyler Yates down there, we'll vote no), that's just not going to cut it.

20


Mariners
53-57
2-4
.484
Down
Pain in the A: against the rest of baseball, they've played .536 ball, but the Mariners can't beat Oakland; they've lost 12 straight to the A's after being swept over the weekend. After a 10-run outburst on Monday, the offense manages just 17 runs for the rest of the week, continuing a larger trend which has seen the M's score just 4.29 runs per game since the All-Star break on meager .264/.314/.385 hitting. Adrian Beltre's looked almost lifelike (.287/.361/.540 in the second half), but Ichiro Suzuki (.290/.333/.323) and Raul Ibanez (.225/.289/.388) have been punchless, and the Eduardo Perez/Ben Broussard duo acquired from the Indians has been doing a pretty scary Carl Everett impression (.208/.291/.333).

21


Phillies
53-57
4-3
.477
Up
Chase Utley's hitting streak ends at 35, and soon after it, so does a stretch in which the Phils win nine of 11 to keep their thin playoff hopes (now 7.7 percent) alive. David Dellucci is thriving in the post-Bobby Abreu lineup--11-for-21 with a pair of homers since the trade, bringing him to .335/.397/.627 for the year. And speaking of slugging above .600--we don't do that often enough around here--Ryan Howard (.291/.377/.621) has joined the club after hitting six homers in a ten-game span, one that includes a game in which he was walked five times by the Marlins (once intentionally); Howard's third among NL first basemen in VORP (41.9). Not slugging .600 but still worth a mention: 33-year-old rookie catcher Chris Coste (.357/.400/.560).

22


Astros
53-58
4-2
.471
Up
Seven weeks into Roger Clemens' latest comeback, the Astros finally post a winning record for the week. Not that the Rocket should be blamed; he's put up a 2.32 ERA in 54.1 innings and is virutally tied for second on the team in SNLVAR (2.3). As for newcomers who aren't setting the world on fire, Aubrey Huff is hitting just .263/.366/.400 as an Astro so far. Morgan Ensberg's return to the lineup means that critics can go back to beating him like a redheaded stepchild. Despite the low batting average, Ensberg's .240/.392/.490 performance is pretty decent; his Marginal Lineup Valule Rate (0.156) is third on the team and miles better than Huff's 0.021, and his .291 EqA is eighth among major-league third basemen.

23


Marlins
51-60
3-4
.470
Flat
Despite his team's 40-29 record since May 21, manager Joe Girardi apparently comes close to losing his job after a clash with owner Jeffrey Loria. Cooler heads prevail, but is anybody really surprised to see the game's most horsebleep owner--he's got competition, but nobody else has alienated two cities worth of baseball fans--try to ruin a good thing? After a strong start to the second half, the Fish are floundering, having lost seven of 10. Particularly struggling: Dan Uggla (.228/.277/.413 since the break, just in case you had him confused with Rogers Hornsby), Jeremy Hermida (in the throes of a 2-for-29 slump), Joshua Johnson (4.82 ERA since the break, more than double his once league-leading mark) and Randy Messenger (12 ER and 25 baserunners in 9 IP since the break, -0.482 WXRL overall).

24


Brewers
52-59
2-4
.448
Down
Oh, Sheets: having already endured their ace's prolonged absence, the Brewers could be forgiven for holding their breaths when Ben Sheets left his August 5 start after just one inning, but the cause is cramping, not tearing. With the Brewers falling even further out of contention after another losing week, the team should let Sheets take his time to get sorted; Zach Jackson's just a phone call away in Music City, USA, and it's not like the rest of the rotation has been putting up Wild Card-caliber performances (5.35 ERA since the break, and an unimpressive 12th in the NL in SNLVAR overall). With Carlos Lee gone, J.J. Hardy done for the year and Rickie Weeks certainly looking that way, there's no sense in going to the whip, and if that puts the Brewers in yet another "Wait Till Next Year" mode, at least the future is still brighter than the present.

25


Nationals
49-62
3-3
.445
Up
After failing to move any of his hurlers at the deadline, Jim Bowden manages to sneak Livan Hernandez through waivers at a time when the big man is pitching his best ball of the season. In return, he gets a pair of prospects his AGM Mike Rizzo oversaw in his previous guise as the D-Backs' VP of Scouting Operations. With the current edition of the team going nowhere slowly, it's all about the future, and while Bowden pays lip service to it including Alfonso Soriano, the obvious signs point to the contrary. Turning to the present, it's worth noting that the Nats are 11-10 in the second half thanks in part to a .369 OBP, best in the NL. Alfonso Soriano (.464, to go with an .815 SLG) and Nick Johnson (.441) lead the way, and new guys Felipe Lopez (.385) and Austin Kearns (.395) haven't exactly hurt the cause.

26


Orioles
50-62
2-4
.435
Flat
The Orioles unload one disgruntled veteran, Javy Lopez, but no matter; there's still Tons O' (as in Oriole) Suck here, particuarly on the pitching staff, which has surrendered 35 homers since the All-Star break (1.62 HR/9), while the O's themselves have hit just 14. Leading the way is Russ Ortiz (7 IP, 5 HR), making him the obvious choice for Monday's start in the absence of Kris Benson (sidelined by elbow tendonitis). Rodrigo Lopez--no happy camper himself at the trading deadline, though it was a real bear market for starters with 6.57 ERAs--surrenders four in one game, just to disabuse anybody of the notion that he's waiver bait. Speaking of waiver bait, for what earthly reason is Fernando Tatis--last useful circa 2000--on this roster? Oh, right, it's all part of Peter Angelos' annual "74 Wins or Bust" campaign.

27


Cubs
47-64
4-3
.425
Flat
What is this, the official Save Dusty's Job Telethon, or just the ol' Dead Cat Bounce? With a string dying to be played out, the Cubs have won 10 of 14. Mark Prior and Rich Hill get their ERAs out of Boeing territory, the former by notching his first W of the season, the latter by whiffing 15 in his two starts. The Cubs could use that kind of help in the rotation, considering they're third to last in the NL in SNLVAR (10.1). The real story out of Chicago is the concern that Aramis Ramirez will opt out of the final two years and $21.5 million of his contract; his second-half tear (.354/.432/.768 ) and recent hustle are suddenly cause for alarm. Meanwhile, there's talk that the team is interested in re-signing Juan Pierre despite the role of his slow start in murdering this season. We can't make this stuff up, people.

28


Pirates
42-70
2-4
.411
Flat
Well, you might as well hand the First Annual Montgomery Burns Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence to Dave Littlefield now, because who knows what the next week may bring. Shawn Chacon wins his first start as a Pirate, while Xavier Nady hits .364/.417/.500 for the week; Littlefield's trading-partner suckers on the Yankees, Mets, Tigers and Rangers can't possibly have it so good, especially with this team posting a winning record (12-10) since the All-Star break... Turning to news that doesn't involve heaping more scorn and derision on the Pirates, rookie Tom Gorzelanny has reeled off three Quality Starts in a row, allowing a total of four runs in 21 innings after shutting out the Cubs for eight innings.

29


Devil Rays
47-65
4-3
.408
Up
An impressive week for the Rays as they split a series with the Tigers, then take two out of three against the Red Sox, without having Scott Kazmir to push those big, mean Bostons around. Kazmir's arm feels "perfect", and he'll be back in the rotation later this week. Meanwhile, the Rays decide they've had enough with Elijah Dukes' Durham bull, suspending the troubled prospect for 30 days after a series of incidents and possibly ending his playing days in the organization. Kevin Goldstein still sees Dukes as one of the most talented corner-outfield prospects around, but admits that "any future in baseball at all is in doubt." Ouch.

30


Royals
38-73
1-6
.361
Down
If you were thrown off by that seven-week stretch of near-.500 ball the Royals played, worry not; they're back to stinking on ice, adding another 28 runs this week to their already MLB-leading deficit (now -166). But there's good news to be had. Luke Hudson has racked up five good starts in a row (30.2 IP, 12 ER). New acquisition Ryan Shealy has already bopped his first home run as a Royal. Alex Gordon's progress, in conjunction with Mark Teahen's resurgence (.307/.393/.568 since being recalled in June), gives the team a pleasant problem to solve. And after 88 games, Mike Sweeney finally comes off the DL, creating the opportunity for another round of that favorite parlor game, Guess When Mike Sweeney Goes Back on the DL (August 19 is the guess here).


The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jay's other articles. You can contact Jay by clicking here

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