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July 31, 2006

Prospectus Today

The Abreu Deal...and the Interesting One

by Joe Sheehan

Maybe “Stand Pat” wasn’t such a bad idea after all.

Pat Gillick, who picked up the moniker for his lack of trading activity during stints with the Blue Jays and Mariners, made a deal yesterday that benefited a team he worked for 30 years ago: the Yankees. By trading Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to New York in exchange for four of the Yankees’ downlist prospects, Gillick set his Phillies on a rebuilding path while potentially locking up a postseason spot for the Bronx Bombers.

Christina Kahrl has already shared her take on the trade, and I’m largely in agreement. This was a salary dump, nothing more, and pointing to C.J. Henry’s youth and athleticism, or the upside of two Venezuelans playing five levels from the majors, doesn’t begin to change that evaluation. You can point to Abreu’s limited list of acceptable destinations as a handicap, but Gillick has been trying to clear Abreu’s salary from his books from the moment he took the job, and combined with the trade of Jim Thome, he’s cleared close to a third of the Phillies’ 2007 payroll. To what end is unclear: this isn’t a great free-agent winter and the Phillies are going to be more than a quick fix from contention, anyway. If some of this money goes towards locking up Chase Utley and Ryan Howard with Indians-style contracts, that’s something, but the Phillies have to add around those two if this trade is to have any payoff.

How’s that taxpayer-funded ballpark working out for you, Philadelphia?

It’s more apparent what this deal does for the Yankees: it scares the hell out of the Red Sox. Set aside Abreu’s power outage and Lidle’s averageness, and consider the playing time the two will be assuming. Aaron Guiel (.214/.290/.536) and Andy Phillips (.242/.276/.406) will be sitting down so that Abreu’s .277/.427/.434 can play, with Bernie Williams (.280/.326/.428) losing some playing time now and the rest when Hideki Matsui returns. It’s 100-150 points of OBP; if Abreu doesn’t hit another homer and plays right field like Jim Leyland after two packs, he’s still worth two wins between now and October.

It breaks my heart to say this—I’m the guy who calls the 1996-2000 Yankees not the “Derek Jeter” teams but the “Bernie Williams” ones—but Williams isn’t a useful player any longer, recent hot streak notwithstanding. I was wrong about his career path; if you look in the BP annuals, you’ll see frequent references to how Williams could add power late in his career, especially once he left center field. That never happened; Williams just dropped off at 34 and then again at 36, and he’s now not even an adequate extra outfielder. Objectively, Guiel—with lefty sock and good corner defense—has more on-field value to this team. That’s not how it will play out, but it’s a damning criticism of the player Williams is today.