The short week after the All-Star break creates an opportunity here at Hit List Central. Rather than cycle through another team-by-team roundup after just three or four games–I’d rather saw off my tongue I love doing this column, but not that much–I decided to step back and examine the rankings from a few different vantage points.
First, a reminder. Perhaps the single most common lead-in to a piece of the Hit List-related reader mail I receive is something along the lines of “How can you rate ______ (that high/that low/ahead of my team), you (moron/imbecile/jerkass)?” Last week it was somebody complaining about the Royals being behind the Cubs and Pirates. Ever see beer foaming out of a Prospectus author’s nose? It’s not pretty.
I don’t “rate” teams per se, the Hit List Factor formula does that, and while the formula (an average of the actual, first-, second- and third-order winning percentages as reported in Monday morning’s Adjusted Standings) is admittedly arbitrary, the rankings are created by the data, not by my opinions. I don’t always agree with what the formula spits out; the Indians–who finished last year at #1 despite missing the playoffs, and who linger in top ten territory this year despite being several games under .500, their season shot to hell long ago–remain a particular thorn in my side, for example. But as I see it, it’s my job to explore the “why” of those rankings while hammering home the concept of run differentials as indicators of team strength.
Why use all four winning percentages? Let’s start with a refresher course of what the ones beyond the actual winning percentage are:
- First-order winning percentage is computed (via Pythagenpat, Pythagoras’ slightly more sophisticated sibling) using actual runs scored and allowed
- Second-order winning percentage uses equivalent runs scored and allowed, based on run elements (hits, walks, total bases, etc.) and the scoring environment (park and league adjustments).
- Third-order winning percentage adjusts for the quality of the opponent’s hitting and pitching via Equivalent Average (EqA) allowed and opponents’ EqA.
By using the four percentages, we’re correcting for teams that over- or underperform relative to how many runs they’ve scored and allowed, how many runs they should have scored/allowed given the number and type of hits, walks and other events, their ballpark environment and their quality of competition. There’s nothing written in stone about this formula, but there’s no hidden agenda, either. It’s simply a way of looking at the question, “How good is each team?” and giving weight to various categories of performance without overcompensating for any of them.
Anyway, before we dig much deeper, here are this short week’s rankings for you completists out there, noted, as they say, without comment:
Overall Week Rk Team W-L W-L trend HLF ------------------------------------------- 1 Tigers 62-30 3-1 -1 .636 2 Yankees 53-36 3-0 1 .610 3 White Sox 57-34 0-3 -1 .593 4 Red Sox 54-36 1-3 -1 .584 5 Mets 55-37 2-1 0 .576 6 Blue Jays 51-40 2-1 0 .568 7 Rangers 47-45 2-2 0 .538 8 Twins 50-40 3-1 1 .534 9 Cardinals 52-39 4-0 1 .529 10 Angels 46-45 3-0 1 .528 11 Indians 41-50 1-3 -1 .527 12 Dodgers 46-46 0-4 -1 .524 13 Padres 48-43 0-3 -1 .520 14 Reds 49-44 4-0 1 .504 15 Giants 46-46 1-2 -1 .495 16 Rockies 44-47 0-4 -1 .495 17 Mariners 44-48 1-2 0 .490 18 Athletics 48-44 3-1 1 .488 19 Braves 43-49 3-0 1 .486 20 Diamondbacks 45-46 2-1 1 .481 21 Astros 45-48 2-2 1 .467 22 Marlins 40-50 2-2 0 .465 23 Phillies 42-48 2-1 1 .455 24 Brewers 45-48 1-2 0 .455 25 Orioles 43-51 2-2 0 .441 26 Nationals 39-54 1-2 1 .430 27 Devil Rays 39-53 0-3 -1 .417 28 Cubs 35-56 1-2 1 .408 29 Pirates 32-61 2-1 0 .401 30 Royals 32-59 1-3 1 .366
The most obvious feature of the list right now is the American League’s dominance; seven of the top eight slots and nine of the top 11 come from the Junior Circuit. Overall, AL teams average a 12.1 ranking and .523 Hit List Factor, while NL teams average an 18.5 ranking and .481 HLF. That’s an even wider disparity than last year, when the numbers were 13.4 and .509 for the AL, 17.3 and .492 for the NL.
That dominance, of course, is an artifact of last month’s interleague play. The AL went 154-98 (.611) against the NL this year, outscoring their NL “rivals” (if we can call such pairs as the Twins and Pirates rivals for anything beyond Bert Blyleven’s personal favorite World Series winner) by a score of 1,336-1,115. That projects out to “only” a .586 winning percentage via Pythagenpat, a margin of 6.3 extra wins in the AL’s favor. Still, that’s a pretty decisive advantage, and it’s helped leave the NL with just four teams above .500, two more are right at .500, and another two within three games of the mark.
Those imbalanced results are a product of five teams wailing the tar out of the NL; the Red Sox and Twins both went 16-2, the Tigers went 15-3, and the White Sox and Mariners went 14-4. All but the latter wind up in the aforementioned top eight. In general, the AL spread their beatings around rather equitably; the Rockies (11-4) and Giants (8-7) were the only teams to wind up with winning records in interleague, but every NL team besides the Pirates (3-12) and Cubs (4-11) won at least five games.
Breaking the leagues down into divisions, we can get a closer look at who has the hammer, and how the balance of power has shifted since the end of last year:
----2006---- ----2005---- Division Avg RK HLF Avg RK HLF AL Central 10.6 .531 14.0 .500 AL East 12.8 .524 14.0 .508 AL West 13.0 .511 12.0 .521 NL West 15.2 .503 24.4 .443 NL East 19.0 .482 13.2 .522 NL Central 25.0 .461 14.8 .508
Despite being weighted down by the Royals, who’ve been in the #30 spot for 15 out of 16 editions of the Hit List (all but week 1) this season, the AL Central shines the brightest this year, with two of the list’s top three teams and four of its top eight. Not too shabby. The AL East, with three of the list’s top six teams, is a solid second, though weighted down by the Orioles (#25) and Devil Rays (#27).
The AL West sports two ignominious distinctions. The A’s lead the division by one game, though they’re actually the lowest-ranked of the four teams, which is rather bizarre. They’re also the only division leader sporting a negative run differential (-4), which is nothing to write home about either. Meanwhile, the second-pace Rangers rank a respectable #7 and carry a +25 differential, and the third-place Angels this week cracked the top 10 for the first time all year, their run differential finally in the black as well.
Turning to the NL West, last year’s doormats are the league’s strongest division this year, and the most improved (+.060) as well. Had the Dodgers and Padres not both endured sweeps this week, those two teams would have been in the top 10, and the division would have given the AL West a run for its money in terms of average ranking (I know this because I calculated preliminary breakdowns with Saturday’s Adjusted Standings). Even their worst team, the Diamondbacks, is ranked a relatively respectable #20. Well behind the West, and below .500 collectively is the NL East; though the Mets are the NL’s top team, the other four are clustered between #19 and #26.
Bringing up the rear is the NL Central, the division that not surprisingly has taken the biggest hit since last year. Not only does the Central have two of the bottom three teams (#28 Pirates and #29 Cubs, both suffering from a terminal case of The Suck) and four of the bottom 10, but without the Cardinals’ sweep of the Dodgers, they might have closed out the week without a top 10 team. The Cards are 13 games over .500 but with just a 28-run differential, one that comes out in the wash by the time we do all those adjustments–park, league, and quality of competition–to get to third-order winning percentage. Theirs is just .493, and their +7.1 Delta-W3 is the majors’ highest. It’s also worth noting here that the team currently holding the NL Wild Card lead, the Reds, is ranked just #14. Given the insanely imbalanced trade the Reds made with the Nats, we shouldn’t expect them to hold onto that lead.
Moving on, we can use the Hit List to help quantify which teams have shown the biggest improvement since the end of last year:
Team 7/16 2005 fin. dif --------------------------------- Tigers .636 .466 .170 Rockies .495 .409 .086 Dodgers .524 .447 .077 Blue Jays .568 .505 .063 Giants .495 .439 .056 Reds .504 .455 .049 Diamondbacks .481 .439 .042 Mariners .490 .450 .040 Padres .520 .483 .037 Mets .576 .539 .037 Yankees .610 .574 .036 White Sox .593 .561 .032 Rangers .538 .515 .023 Red Sox .584 .565 .019 Twins .534 .516 .018 Royals .366 .360 .006 Devil Rays .417 .419 -.002 Orioles .441 .475 -.034 Angels .528 .562 -.034 Pirates .401 .436 -.035 Marlins .465 .501 -.036 Nationals .430 .474 -.044 Brewers .455 .510 -.055 Braves .486 .544 -.058 Cardinals .529 .591 -.062 Athletics .488 .558 -.070 Indians .527 .598 -.071 Astros .467 .549 -.082 Phillies .455 .552 -.097 Cubs .408 .510 -.102
Not surprisingly, it’s the surprising Tigers at the top of the list; they’ve posted a gain that’s bigger than the next two teams combined. The Dodgers, who have still suffered their share of injuries, are nonetheless among the majors’ most improved, and in fact the trend is that the NL West as a whole has seen four of the seven largest year-over-year improvements. Also much improved is the AL East, a result that seems somewhat counterintuitive. Not only have the Blue Jays posted the fourth-biggest gain, but those two Beasts of the East, the Yankees and Red Sox, have also improved as far as the Hit List is concerned, with the Bombers just one point off the gains of their Big Apple cohorts. For all of the chatter about how the AL East is winner-take-all because of the strength of the Central, this past weekend’s Yankees sweep of the White Sox has left the Yanks ahead of the defending champs not only on the Hit List, but in the Postseason Odds report as well.
On the other hand, the NL Central has seen three of the six largest year-over-year declines, including the Cardinals, who spent 14 weeks ranked #1 last year but live on the fringes of the top 10 this year. Note that for all of the disappointment about the Indians, who missed the playoffs last year despite ending up #1 on the Hit List, their 71-point decline is still outstripped by three other teams, including the defending NL champion Astros.
Looking back at our preseason Hit List, which was driven by a PECOTA-based Postseason Odds report, we can see which teams have over- and underperformed by the widest margins relative to projections:
Team 7/16 PECOTA dif --------------------------------- Tigers .636 .512 .124 White Sox .593 .506 .087 Blue Jays .568 .488 .080 Rangers .538 .494 .044 Padres .520 .481 .039 Rockies .495 .457 .038 Mets .576 .543 .033 Yankees .610 .580 .030 Angels .528 .500 .028 Marlins .465 .438 .027 Reds .504 .481 .023 Mariners .490 .475 .015 Twins .534 .519 .015 Red Sox .584 .574 .010 Diamondbacks .481 .475 .006 Giants .495 .494 .001 Nationals .430 .432 -.002 Cardinals .529 .531 -.002 Devil Rays .417 .426 -.009 Royals .366 .377 -.011 Dodgers .524 .537 -.013 Indians .527 .543 -.016 Astros .467 .500 -.033 Orioles .441 .475 -.034 Braves .486 .525 -.039 Brewers .455 .519 -.064 Phillies .455 .531 -.076 Athletics .488 .574 -.086 Pirates .401 .488 -.087 Cubs .408 .525 -.117
Again, the Tigers top the list, which includes some real surprises. But before we get carried away with the extremes, note that 15 out of 30 teams are within .030–over the course of the year, that’s five games in either direction–of their PECOTA-based Pythagorean projections. The Tigers and White Sox, of course, have far outstripped their projections; I’ve already conceded the point to those once-angry Pale Hose fans. Even the dinged-up Yanks are ahead of their projections, as are the Angels, who had been written off just a few weeks ago, and the Twins, who were left for dead after a seven-week bellyflop to start the year.
Towards the middle of that bunch we can see that PECOTA had the Cardinals pretty well pegged, that the Dodgers are still underperforming slightly relative to expectations, and that the Indians aren’t all that far off of PECOTA’s expectations (as opposed to our loftier human ones). Meanwhile, the preseason #1 A’s have been one of the year’s biggest underperformers, as have the Pirates, shiny new manager and all.
Our final list looks at the average week-by-week rankings of each team:
Team Avg Rk ------------------- Tigers 1.5 Yankees 2.8 Mets 3.9 White Sox 5.4 Red Sox 6.1 Cardinals 8.1 Blue Jays 8.5 Indians 9.4 Dodgers 9.9 Reds 11.9 Rangers 12.1 Rockies 13.6 Diamondbacks 13.7 Brewers 14.8 Padres 16.5 A's 16.7 Giants 16.7 Astros 17.5 Braves 18.2 Angels 18.8 Mariners 20.2 Twins 21.1 Phillies 21.5 Cubs 22.3 Nationals 23.0 Orioles 23.1 Marlins 23.4 Devil Rays 26.6 Pirates 28.1 Royals 29.7
Again, we see just how dominant the Tigers have been. Not only have they held first place for 10 out of the 15 regular-season weeks (including this short one), but they’ve never dropped lower than third. The Mets have been the only other team to remain in the single-digit rankings all year; their lowest ranking is sixth place. On the other hand, the Royals have been 30th in all but the first week. Note how far above their average rankings the Twins and Angels currently are, by about 13 and nine games respectively. On the other hand, the Brewers are about nine slots below where they’ve spent most of the year.
Can the Tigers hold on? To me, that’s the single most interesting question the second half will answer. They’ve dominated all things on the Hit List, but whether they can continue to make that stick in the standings… well, that’s why they play the games.
Thank you for reading
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