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April 7, 2000

The Daily Prospectus

A Tale of Two Phenoms

by Rany Jazayerli

Among the biggest stories in baseball every spring is the emergence of a new crop of phenoms, those great talents that take the relaxed atmosphere of spring training by storm before they take their first legal drink--or their first swing in Double-A. This year, the name on everyone's lips depended on the humidity: in arid Arizona, it was the Cubs' does-it-all-except-walk center fielder, Corey Patterson, while in sultry Florida, it was the Braves' does-it-all-except-hit-for-power shortstop, Rafael Furcal.

Both players are undeniably great talents; Furcal (#6) and Patterson (#9) rank behind only the Padres' Sean Burroughs (#4) among the players on our list of Top 40 Prospects who had yet to play above A ball. And while the Padres are fairly set at third base with Phil Nevin, the Cubs were so desperate for a center fielder that they traded for the scar formerly known as Damon Buford. The Braves' Walt Weiss/Ozzie Guillen hybrid at shortstop was cited by scientific experts in their call for a ban on genetic engineering in humans.

Patterson and Furcal both came into the spring with a head of steam from their off-season exploits. Patterson hit .368 and was arguably the most impressive player in the Arizona Fall League, while Furcal held his own with the bat in the Dominican Winter League and continued to wreak havoc on the bases. With their pedigrees, and their opportunity in the organization, both players were considered legitimate candidates to pole-vault past two levels and open the season in the major leagues.

And a funny thing happened: it was the Braves, normally the model for other teams to follow, who let caution fly and opened the season with Furcal on their roster. The Cubs, normally a team with all the originality of a lemming that drops into the ocean because all his friends are doing it, elected to be patient with Patterson and returned him to the minor leagues. And for once, it looks like the Cubs got it right.

Look at this from the Braves' perspective. In opening the season with Furcal on their roster, they are banking that:

  • Furcal is a better player than the alternatives for the roster spot.

  • That Furcal will benefit more by playing half-time in the major leagues than he will by playing every day in Double- or Triple-A.

  • That the Braves themselves will reap the benefits of Furcal's early emergence.

Given that the Braves' alternative was Ozzie Guillen, it's hard to disagree with the first point. Some would argue that this was reason enough to keep Furcal. But it's hard to argue that what the Braves gain from playing Furcal over Guillen comes close to what they lose on the latter two points. Furcal's development is very likely to be stunted by skipping the two highest classifications in the minor leagues (remember Mike Caruso and Jose Guillen?). And even if he is successful in the short term, the likelihood of him regressing in the future is unacceptably high. Remember, a year ago Caruso was coming off a .306 season and looked like a rising star.

Even if we give the Braves the benefit of the doubt here--from Terry Pendleton to Andres Galarraga, this is a team that knows how to get away with risky decisions--there is still the last point, as David Rawnsley recently argued, to consider. Keep in mind that a player is not eligible for free agency until he has six full years of service time. Six full years minus one day, and that player is still tied to his original team for another year.

Had the Braves sent Furcal to Triple-A and called him up this weekend, they would have retained his rights through 2006; now, unless they demote him during the season, he's eligible for parole in 2005. Furthermore, he's going to be eligible for arbitration after the 2002 season, whereas had the Braves had kept him in the minor leagues until Flag Day, he likely would not qualify as even a "Super Two" player and would be earning close to baseball's minimum wage through 2003.

Instead, the Braves have decided that having Furcal on their roster for the first 70 games of the 2000 season is worth jeopardizing his development. If he does develop into a star, it's also worth several million dollars in arbitration in 2003 and their contractual rights to him in 2006. Does that sound like a reasonable trade-off to you? What makes this decision even more galling is that the Braves didn't need to fabricate a reason to send down Furcal. There's no way anyone could argue that a demotion for Furcal would be for strictly financial reasons; after all, we're talking about a player who finished last season in the Carolina League.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have wisely decided that, even though Patterson clearly would be an improvement in their lineup over Damon Buford (at least against right-handers), the team is such a long shot to make any noise in the division that the organization is better off giving Patterson two months in Triple-A, ensuring that Patterson's time in Chicago will be as long, productive and cost-efficient as possible.

Maybe the Cubs learned their lesson with Gary Scott, who was rushed to the majors after a month's experience in Double-A. Or maybe with, surprisingly enough, Kerry Wood. Remember, Wood started the 1998 season in Triple-A, arriving in Chicago after just one start for Iowa, but that one start in the minor leagues was enough to delay Wood's free agency by a full season. And when dealing with potential superstars, it's worth using a little sleight of hand to extract an extra season at below market value.

It's not surprising that while one team showed wisdom in their decision, the other let their desperation cloud their judgment. What is surprising is that the prudent team plays on WGN, not on TBS.

Rany Jazayerli, M.D., can be reached at ranyj@baseballprospectus.com.

Rany Jazayerli is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Rany's other articles. You can contact Rany by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Rafael Furcal

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