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May 25, 2006

Future Shock

Draft Notebook, 5/25

by Kevin Goldstein

With less than two weeks to go before the draft, those charged with covering the annual pick-fest have been busy with mock drafts. I was going to follow suit, but it's still too much of a guessing game. The first five picks have solidified to the consistency of Jello at best; after the first fifteen, you might as while get a monkey to throw darts, as any number of pre-draft deals could create chaos in the second half. So instead of projecting exact names, let's go through the first half of the draft and see what the rumors are and where each team stands. The glass half-empty guy would say I'm wussing out here, but the glass half-full guy--a personal friend of mine--would say I'm giving you far more information this way.

1. Kansas City Royals.

By all accounts, University of North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller is once again the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall, but it's still anything but carved in stone. Miller's performance in yesterday's ACC tournament opener, in which he gave up seven runs in six innings, didn't exactly help things, either. Rumors of the Royals going cheap and selecting University of Washington righty Tim Lincecum or even University of Houston righthander Brad Lincoln remain...

...and then there is this. Straight from the X-Files, and directed by Oliver Stone, it's the latest tidbit of gossip in the world of draft discussion: Luke Hochevar to the Royals with the first pick in the draft. It almost begins to makes sense if you think about it too long because of the spin-job that allows for both sides to sell this as a win-win situation. Assuming the Royals and Hochevar's agent, Scott Boras, could bang out the basics of a deal before the Royals selected (with the numbers being mentioned as around four million), here's how it works. For Kansas City, it means a seven-figure savings from what it would take to sign Miller. In addition the Royals would say that they selected the best pitcher from last year's draft, which is a much stronger class than the current one. Not only would being the top pick benefit Hochevar, but it would be a bit of redemption for Boras, who was highly criticized for his handling of the Tennessee star last year, but now would be able to boast that he turned his protégé into the No. 1 pick in the draft and signed him for far more than the $2.98 million bonus Hochevar agreed to with the Dodgers while temporarily advised by Matt Sosnick. Will this happen? Probably not. But in late May, talking about these scenarios is half the fun. Some people have the National Enquirer, we have the draft.

2. Colorado Rockies