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May 17, 2006

Lies, Damned Lies

Trouble in Wrigleyville

by Nate Silver

Three weeks ago this Wednesday, I did an in-studio radio gig with Dave Kaplan and Tom Waddle at WGN. The Cubs were 12-7 at the time. Derrek Lee had just been injured, but we couldn’t help but look at the upcoming schedule--which featured plenty of games against the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Padres--and find ample reason for optimism. Will Carroll called in with a report that Lee might be back sooner than expected; Kerry Wood had thrown off a mound that afternoon, and we received a tip that his performance had been very impressive. In 2005, just about everything that could go wrong for the Cubs did go wrong; perhaps 2006 would be the year that they caught a few breaks.

Since then, the Cubs have gone 3-15, including an 0-7 mark against the Padres, which as the Tribune reported on Monday, represented the first time that the Cubs had been swept in the season series by an NL opponent since they adopted their ursine moniker in 1907. It has been absolutely terrible baseball; the Cubs have allowed exactly six runs per game since April 29th, while scoring just 2.3. They were shutout on Monday--not just shut out but two-hit--by Clay Hensley, a result only slightly more dignified than being shut out by Clay Aiken or Clay Davenport.

Happy precedent aside, the Cubs’ 2006 is over. They began their day of respite on Monday as a roughly 125-to-1 shot to so much as make the postseason, and will enter the 2007 season at 99 years and counting since last winning a World Championship. Indeed, not much has gone right since the Curse of the Billy Goat has been supplanted by the Curse of the Bartman. If the White Sox haven’t yet supplanted the Cubs’ as Chicago’s favorite nine, they’re at least right on their heels in terms of fan and media attention.

What can be salvaged from all of this? It all depends on how quickly Jim Hendry and company can recognize that the time for building for 2007 and beyond begins now. The Cubs have many admirable qualities as an organization, but tractability has not usually been among them.

This is more editorializing than I usually do, and the truth is that at least a dozen franchises in baseball would happily trade places with the Cubs, both for the stock of talent on their 40-man roster and for their inherent organizational strengths and competencies. Let’s take a look at the franchise through a series of Tufte-like infographics; everything you should need to decode these is right here: