April 26, 2006

Prospectus Today

Smart Ball

by Joe Sheehan

I need to make a correction to last week's Jim Edmonds piece. It was pointed out to me that Jay Jaffe modified his calculation of the JAWS score, taking into account a longer peak that wasn't defined by consecutive seasons. I calculated Edmonds' peak using the original, five-consecutive-year definition.

Under the new method, the Hall of Fame vs. Jimmy looks like this:

NEW        BRAR BRAA FRAA  Career  Peak   JAWS
Avg HOF CF  731  478    0  108.8   63.4   86.1
Edmonds     555  371  106   98.3   78.2   88.3

*JAWS: (Career WARP + Peak WARP) / 2

Edmonds is already comparable to the average Hall of Fame center fielder. If he retired today, he'd be a good candidate for induction. He's likely to add to his case over the next few seasons, and will retire as a clear Hall of Famer.

On to less enjoyable topics, this is how the Rockies helped themselves lose Monday night, clipped from the third inning of a game they trailed 2-1: Josh Fogg: Ball, Ball, Ball, Fogg walked.
Cory Sullivan: Sullivan reached on fielder's choice to pitcher, Fogg to second.
Clint Barmes: Barmes sacrificed to third, Fogg to third, Sullivan to second.
Let's put that into some exasperated copy. The Rockies were trailing, on the road, with a pitcher on the mound who had started the game by allowing two runs in the first inning. They were given a gift in the form of a leadoff four-pitch walk to that same pitcher, changing a likely out into a baserunner with the top of the lineup coming up. Against a pitcher who had just issued a four-ball walk. To the opposing pitcher. (I'm being repetitive on purpose.)

The first thing they do? Try to make an out intentionally. Cory Sullivan laid down a sacrifice bunt and was bailed out by Ryan Howard's lousy throw trying to get the lead runner. Wow, two free baserunners, 2-3-4 hitters coming up, big inning in the works, right?

On the very next pitch, Clint Barmes lays down another sacrifice. This time, the Phillies take the out. They go on to allow a single run on a wild pitch, and eventually win 6-5. Just an incredible waste of an opportunity by the Rockies and Clint Hurdle.

Sacrifice bunting is generally a bad idea, useful in certain clearly defined situations, almost all of which involve a pitcher or a late inning. It seems like the early part of the 2006 season, however, has seen a sharp uptick in the number of truly dumb bunts. Brian Roberts: Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Ball, Foul, Foul, Roberts walked.
Nick Markakis: Ball, Pickoff attempt, Pickoff attempt, Ball, Roberts stole second, Ball, Strike looking, Markakis walked.
Melvin Mora: Ball, Mora sacrificed to pitcher, Roberts to third, Markakis to second.
This came in the third inning of Saturday's Orioles/Yankees tilt. There was no score, and the Orioles were hitting off of Shawn Chacon. Now, the two shutout innings notwithstanding, how many runs does it usually take to beat the Yankees? They score a bit more than six runs a game, so you have to count on getting, well, more than two. Not only did this bunt cut the knees out from under a potential big inning--Melvin Mora, you should note, is the O's everyday #3 batter, and presumably someone they think can hit a little--but it did so in the hopes of acquiring runs that would almost certainly not be the difference in the game. And as the Rockies did, the Orioles gave an out to a pitcher who didn't seem all that certain of getting one on his own. Thirteen pitches, eight balls to start the inning for Chacon, and he started Mora out 1-0. Throwing Chacon an out in that situation is like throwing Richard Kind a residual check.

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