We at Baseball Prospectus long ago fell into referring to PECOTA, our player projection system, as if it were a living thing. “What does PECOTA think about
Like all oracles, PECOTA can be inscrutable if you’re not familiar with its frame of reference. This has become more apparent with the inclusion of each player’s top three comparable players in the book. Sometimes what PECOTA is getting at is simple.
It is important to note that when PECOTA lists its comparables, it is not saying that Player A is Player B, but simply that Player A is very similar to Player B at the same age. Yet, the comparables do seem to establish a taxonomy of ballplayers, grouping players of similar styles together–though this reading of PECOTA’s “motivation” is sometimes complicated by comparisons of round pegs and square holes;
It’s the prospects and unestablished players where PECOTA enjoys its little jokes. Consider
McCarty was a Stanford first baseman made the third overall pick in the 1991 draft by the Minnesota Twins, allowing teams with better records to claim
McCarty was a typical story, but Komminsk’s was the rarer case of the fully developed player who couldn’t make the jump to the big leagues. Komminsk, a high school first baseman-outfielder, was the fourth overall pick of the June 1979 amateur draft. Given the special weakness of that particular class, he had a chance to be the outstanding player of the first round, one of the least impressive in history.
The Mariners had the top pick and took
With the second pick the Mets took UCLA righty
The Blue Jays used the third pick to take catcher Jay Schroeder, who went to the Superbowl with the 1987 Redskins. The A’s took shortstop Juan Bustabad. Fortunately for them he didn’t sign. The Indians missed with high school lefty Jon Bohnet with the seventh pick, the Astros whiffed with catcher
Komminsk was 18 years old on selection day. After a weak first season in the Appalachian League, his power blossomed at Anderson of the Sally League, where he hit 20 home runs in 425 at bats. He moved up to Durham of the Carolina league as a 21-year-old and rained fire on the competition, batting .322/.464/.606. He led the league in batting, hit 33 home runs, walked 110 times (eight intentional), and stole 35 bases in 47 attempts (the league leader in home runs, 22-year-old Padres outfield prospect Gerry Davis, batted .306 with 34 home runs and 161 walks, but he’s a story for another day). “I have never been fortunate enough to have another player of Brad Komminsk’s ability,” Durham manager Al Gallagher told the Sporting News,. “He has a chance to be a superstar. This is the first player I’ve ever seen in my managerial career in A ball who was so defined at his age.”
Atlanta’s player development program was then run by
Aaron and Braves manager
Komminsk finally got the call in mid-August, when injuries attacked the Braves’ outfield. At that moment, Atlanta had a .602 winning percentage and a 5.5 game lead over the second-place Dodgers. Komminsk had one hit in his first three games. The Braves lost all three. Not only was Torre an impatient man, but he was insecure in his position, nervous about the whims of owner Ted Turner and convinced that
Nonetheless, Komminsk had already changed the history of the Braves franchise. When the Braves needed an extra arm during the 1983 stretch drive, they traded for Indians righty
During spring training, 1984, Komminsk was beaten out for the open spot in the Braves’ outfield by
Komminsk struggled with lefties to a degree unusual in a righty hitter, batting just .159/.219/.261 against southpaws that year. It would be a career-long problem. Torre kept Komminsk playing part time through the rest of the season, even as he endured a horrific July-August slump in which he hit just .160. The Braves, competitive in the first two months of the season, fell out of the NL West race in July, and Komminsk deserved part of the blame.
“You know what, he had an asthma problem,” Torre said before a recent Yankees game. “He was Henry Aaron's favorite. He was strong. He never really got a chance to play under me like the other guys in the outfield. I remember having to take him out of a game in L.A. because of the smog in the daytime.” According to Torre, a lack of oxygen wasn’t the youngster’s only drawback. “He was strong. What I thought I noticed about Brad Komminsk was he had only one swing. But it was more mechanical than anything. He was a good kid. A big, strong kid.”
After that season, Torre went into broadcasting exile, but Komminsk could made little headway against major league pitching. Torre’s replacement, Eddie Haas, platooned Komminsk with Washington. Once again, Komminsk struggled to hit lefty pitching, not hitting a home run until mid-August despite regular appearances. The Braves organization was largely done with him after that, and he was traded to the Brewers for Dion James after spending nearly all of the season at Richmond. He didn’t hit there either.
The Brewers let Komminsk play for Triple-A Denver in 1987. He led the American Association in home runs, but it didn’t lead to any playing time. In fact, there’s no happy ending; though Komminsk did get some playing time with the Indians and Orioles in 1989 and 1990, he never rediscovered the offensive potential of his early years. PECOTA really doesn’t like Luis Terrero.
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