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March 30, 2006

Preseason Predictions

AL Staff Picks, 2006

by Baseball Prospectus

Index: Voting Results | Individual Ballots

When BP welcomes new contributors, we like to test them right away--usually by demanding that they take out their crystal ball. Yes, it's time to wrap up the off-season by predicting what things will look like at the conclusion of the 2006 season.

In part one of this two-part series, we focus on the American League, concentrating on the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year). Tomorrow we'll conclude with the National League predictions, along with the staff picks for the World Series representatives.

Each author's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a tidy summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about that team's place in the division standings. Like last year, there was unanimous agreement on the Royals' fate for 2005 and total disagreement on where to place the Rangers.

Standings:

AL EAST


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Boston Red Sox             1.42         .49
New York Yankees           1.58         .49
Toronto Blue Jays          3.16         .37
Baltimore Orioles          4.08         .64
Tampa Bay Devil Rays       4.75         .43


AL CENTRAL


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Cleveland Indians          1.58         .75
Chicago White Sox          1.75         .59
Minnesota Twins            3            .81
Detroit Tigers             3.66         .62
Kansas City Royals         5            0


AL WEST


Team                      Average    Std. Dev.

Oakland A's                1.33        .62
L.A. Angels of Anaheim     2.08        .64
Texas Rangers              2.75        .82
Seattle Mariners           3.83        .37


Individual Awards:

For the MVP voting, we've kept the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each player's name are their 50th percentile 2005 PECOTA forecasts.

Legend:

  • Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
  • Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP

AL MVP

  1. Alex Rodriguez 12 89 (5) .295/.387/.567, 75.0, 8.8, .331
  2. David Ortiz 8 59 (3) .289/.380/.569 59.9, 5.3, .321
  3. Mark Teixeira 6 29 (1) .286/.367/.552, 41.3, 6, .300
  4. Travis Hafner 4 25 (1) .282/.385/.542, 51.5, 4.5, .323
  5. Victor Martinez 2 14 .277/.351/.437, 32.5, 5.3, .285
  6. Grady Sizemore 3 12 (1) .284/.347/.462 35.5, 5.3, .289
  7. Vladimir Guerrero 5 11 .313/.374/.543, 48.3, 5.7, .322
  8. Manny Ramirez 3 11 .296/.386/.572, 51.5, 5.6, .324
  9. Jhonny Peralta 1 10 (1) .275/.346/.464, 35.6, 5.7, .288
  10. Bobby Crosby 4 10 .265/.340/.438, 28.5, 4.9, .280
  11. Eric Chavez 2 8 .266/.347 /.465, 30.8, 5.4, .290
  12. Gary Sheffield 2 6 .307/.393/.551 58.9, 7.0, .329
  13. Hideki Matsui 1 5 .289/.360/.462 31.9,4.8, .295
  14. Justin Morneau 1 5 .267/.333/.486, 18.9, 3.0, .286
  15. Troy Glaus 1 5 .264/.363/.527, 33.8, 4.3, .304
  16. Miguel Tejada 2 4 .294/.343/.483, 49.9, 6.5, .292
  17. Rich Harden 2 4 173.3, 3.60, 35.3, 5.0
  18. Johan Santana 1 3 213.3, 3.18, 56.5, 7.5
  19. Joe Mauer 1 3 .302/.363/.458, 39.7, 6.5, .294
AL Cy Young
  1. Johan Santana 11 49 (8) 213.3, 3.18, 56.5, 7.5
  2. Rich Harden 7 19 (2) 173.3, 3.60, 35.3, 5.0
  3. Roy Halladay 6 16 (1) 178.3, 3.33, 44.6, 6.3
  4. Scott Kazmir 1 5 (1) 175.3, 4.68, 17.5, 3.6
  5. Felix Hernandez 5 5 167.0, 3.33, 37.8, 5.3
  6. Josh Beckett 1 3 148.3, 4.73, 18.1, 3.4
  7. Dan Haren 1 3 191.0, 3.91, 32.2, 4.8
  8. Randy Johnson 1 3 216.0, 3.32, 50.6, 7.3
  9. Francisco Rodriguez 1 3 76.7, 2.87, 24.3, 6.6
  10. Jeremy Bonderman 1 3 196.3, 3.87, 22.3, 3.6
  11. Cliff Lee 1 1 174.3, 4.24, 22.9, 4.0
AL RoY
  1. Francisco Liriano 8 28 (5) 155.7, 3.92, 26.0, 4.2
  2. Ian Kinsler 5 17 (2) .263/.320/.434, 15.2, 3.1, .264
  3. Justin Verlander 5 17 (1) 156.7, 4.11, 21.7, 3.6
  4. Kenji Jojima 4 16 (2) .291/.359/.443, 21.0, 3.7, .279
  5. Brian Anderson 4 10 .266/.325/.460, 12.2, 2.7, .271
  6. Alex Gordon 1 5 (1)
  7. Jason Kubel 3 5 .272 .329 .424, 3.0, 1.2, .271
  8. Delmon Young 4 4 .284/.325/.475, 12.3, 2.9, .274
  9. Jeff Mathis 1 3 .233/.292/.385, 2.9, 2.1, .245
  10. B.J. Upton 1 1 .263/.339/.410, 29.1, 4.1,.280
  11. Scott Baker 1 1 149.7, 4.50, 16.4, 3.1
  12. Dustin Pedroia 1 1 .292/.357/.442, 28.9, 4.7, .283

Individual Ballots:

Will Carroll

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             A's
Yankees (WC)     White Sox           Rangers
Blue Jays        Twins               Angels
Devil Rays       Tigers              Mariners
Orioles          Royals

Most Valuable Player

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. Travis Hafner
  3. Mark Teixeira
  4. Miguel Tejada
  5. Bobby Crosby

Cy Young

  1. Rich Harden
  2. Johan Santana
  3. Cliff Lee

Rookie of the Year

  1. Francisco Liriano
  2. Ian Kinsler
  3. Delmon Young

Dan Fox

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             Rangers
Yankees          White Sox           Angels (WC)
Blue Jays        Twins               A's
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Travis Hafner
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. David Ortiz
  4. Vladimir Guerrero
  5. Mark Teixiera

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Josh Beckett
  3. Roy Halladay

RoY

  1. Francisco Liriano
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Brian Anderson

Steven Goldman

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          White Sox          A's
Red Sox          Indians            Angels
Blue Jays        Twins              Rangers
Tampa Bay        Tigers             Mariners
Orioles          Royals

MVP

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. David Ortiz
  3. Troy Glaus
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Travis Hafner

CY

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Johan Santana
  3. Rich Harden

RoY

  1. Francisco Liriano
  2. Jeff Mathis
  3. Delmon Young

Kevin Goldstein

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          White Sox           Angels
Red Sox          Indians             A's (WC)
Orioles          Twins               Mariners
Blue Jays        Tigers              Rangers
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. Mark Teixiera
  3. Manny Ramirez
  4. Vladimir Guerrero
  5. Grady Sizemore

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Rich Harden
  3. Felix Hernandez

RoY

  1. Kenji Jojima
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Francisco Liriano

Thomas Gorman

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             A's
Yankees (WC)     White Sox           Angels
Blue Jays        Tigers              Rangers
Orioles          Twins               Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. David Ortiz
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. Gary Sheffield
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Grady Sizemore

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Rich Harden

RoY

  1. Ian Kinsler
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Delmon Young

Jay Jaffe

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          Indians             A's
Red Sox          White Sox (WC)      Angels
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Jhonny Peralta
  2. David Ortiz
  3. Alex Rodriguez
  4. Vladimir Guerrero
  5. Miguel Tejada

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Felix Hernandez

RoY

  1. Francisco Liriano
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. B.J. Upton

Christina Kahrl

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          White Sox           A's
Yankees          Indians (WC)        Rangers
Blue Jays        Tigers              Angels
Orioles          Twins               Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. David Ortiz
  2. Victor Martinez
  3. Alex Rodriguez
  4. Bobby Crosby
  5. Manny Ramirez

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Rich Harden

RoY

  1. Alex Gordon
  2. Brian Anderson
  3. Ian Kinsler

Jonah Keri

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             A's
Yankees (WC)     Twins               Rangers
Blue Jays        White Sox           Angels
Orioles          Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. Travis Hafner
  3. David Ortiz
  4. Johan Santana
  5. Vladimir Guerrero

CY

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Randy Johnson
  3. Felix Hernandez

RoY

  1. Ian Kinsler
  2. Kenji Jojima
  3. Scott Baker

Dayn Perry

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          White Sox           A's
Yankees (WC)     Tigers              Angels
Blue Jays        Indians             Rangers
Orioles          Twins               Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. David Ortiz
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. Hideki Matsui
  4. Rich Harden
  5. Eric Chavez

CY

  1. Rich Harden
  2. Johan Santana
  3. Felix Hernandez

RoY

  1. Kenji Jojima
  2. Brian Anderson
  3. Francisco Liriano

Joe Sheehan

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          Twins               A's
Red Sox          White Sox (WC)      Angels
Orioles          Indians             Rangers
Blue Jays        Tigers              Mariners
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Alex Rodriguez
  2. Eric Chavez
  3. Manny Ramirez
  4. Joe Mauer
  5. Vladimir Guerrero
CY
  1. Johan Santana
  2. Rich Harden
  3. Roy Halladay
RoY
  1. Francisco Liriano
  2. Ian Kinsler
  3. Delmon Young

Nate Silver

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Yankees          Indians             A's
Red Sox (WC)     White Sox           Angels
Blue Jays        Tigers              Mariners
Orioles          Twins               Rangers
Devil Rays       Royals

MVP

  1. Grady Sizemore
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. David Ortiz
  4. Bobby Crosby
  5. Gary Sheffield
CY
  1. Johan Santana
  2. Dan Haren
  3. Felix Hernandez
RoY
  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Brian Anderson
  3. Dustin Pedroia

Keith Woolner

STANDINGS


AL EAST          AL CENTRAL          AL WEST

Red Sox          Indians             Angels
Yankees          White Sox           A's (WC)
Blue Jays        Twins               Rangers
Devil Rays       Tigers              Mariners
Orioles          Royals

MVP

  1. Mark Teixeira
  2. Victor Martinez
  3. Justin Morneau
  4. Bobby Crosby
  5. Alex Rodriguez
CY
  1. Scott Kazmir
  2. Francisco Rodriguez
  3. Jeremy Bonderman
RoY
  1. Jason Kubel
  2. Kenji Jojima
  3. Francisco Liriano

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