Printer-friendly

Contact Author

March 21, 2006

Future Shock

California, Here They Come

by Kevin Goldstein

Of the 14 teams that have their Low Class A affiliate in the Midwest League, eight have their High Class A affiliate in the California League, a very different offensive environment for young hitters and pitchers. The dramatic change in the California League leads to plenty of performances which look like growth, owing the the way the League as a whole inflates offense. Taking a step back and looking at the broader picture, however, shows that one needs to evaluate more than just raw statistics to determine the difference between a true offensive breakout season and one that is a product of the California League.

To start, let's take a look at the 2005 California and Midwest Leagues in a modified form of seasonal notation, where I've balanced the league totals to 600 plate appearances.

LG    AB  R  H  2B 3B HR BI BB  K   AVG  OBP  SLG
CAL  530 87 152 33  5 15 80 53 112 .286 .357 .452
MWL  528 77 138 28  4 11 69 55 108 .261 .336 .389

The differences may not look huge at first, but with a 25 point difference in batting average and an advantage in power across the board, the average California League hitters amassed a whopping 84 point differential in OPS. Players moving up from the Midwest to the California League in 2005 followed this basic trend. Last year, there were 22 players who had 300 or more at-bats in the California League who also had 300 or more at-bats in the Midwest League in the 2004 season. Here's how their offensive numbers benefited from the jump.

YEAR LEAGUE     HR/100   OPS
2004 Midwest     2.25   .732
2005 California  3.37   .817
Increase        49.4%  11.6%

This generally follows the league averages we looked at above, and it shows us that to a significant level, increases in raw production for players moving from the Midwest to the California League can be attributed solely to the change of environments. To illustrate this point, let's look at an individual player who at first glance made marked improvements in his overall game, but upon closer inspection, was a product of the scenery switch. This is Angels catcher Bobby Wilson's 2004 season at Cedar Rapids, and last year's numbers at Rancho Cucamonga, where he set new career-highs nearly across the board:

YEAR LG   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR BI BB SO  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
2004 MWL 396 45 106 23  0  8 64 30 55 .268 .320 .386 .706
2005 CAL 466 66 135 32  1 14 77 30 61 .290 .333 .453 .786

A major step forward? Not really. Assuming we knew Wilson would get 466 at-bats and that he would make the average progression in skills to compete in the more advanced California League at the same level he competed in the Midwest League (and not taking park factors into account), we would have expected an 11.6% increase in his OPS, and a massive 49.4% increase in his home run percentage. So let's do some math.

2004 HR/100:            2.02
Expected 2005 HR/100:   3.02 (2.02 + 49.4%)
Expected HR in 466 ABs: 14.1
Actual Home Runs        14
2004 OPS:               .706
2005 Expected OPS:      .788 (.706 + 11.6%)
Actual OPS:             .786