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March 15, 2006
Doctoring The Numbers
The Draft, Part NineTwo quick things before we move on with the rest of the college position players:
Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall COL SS 84-91 + 51.5%* + 16.2% - 79.3%* + 34.5% COL SS 92-99 + 17.6%* + 41.5%* SSS + 45.1% COL SS 84-99 + 39.9% + 22.7% + 54.3% + 37.9% Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts 84-91 Barry Larkin, Matt Williams Monty Fariss, Gary Green 92-99 Nomar Garciaparra, Chris Gomez Jason Dellaero, Brandon LarsonNothing really pithy to say here; college shortstops are a good bet overall, but pretty much in the middle of the pack as far as college hitters go. The nice thing about this position is that you have a lot of positional leeway if your draftee can't handle shortstop as a pro. While a few draft picks have the leather to carry a sub-optimal bat (Walt Weiss, Adam Everett), far more college shortstops have major league bats but are forced to move down the defensive spectrum pretty quickly. Some still have the glove to shine at another key position, like second base (Brian Roberts, Alex Cora) or third base (Matt Williams). Others make you wonder how they ever played shortstop in the first place (Cory Snyder, Michael Tucker). If you draft the guy who can do both, as with Barry Larkin or an early-career Nomar Garciaparra, you've hit the jackpot.
The positional flexibility of shortstops stands in stark contrast to catchers, who with rare exceptions move to either first base--where the offensive demands are much greater--or third base, where the defensive demands are such that if you can't hack it behind the plate (and if you're being considered for a position switch, it's because of your defense), you probably aren't going to be a stud at the hot corner either. Think Todd Zeile.
The interesting case here is Inge, who was a shortstop in college and was made a catcher immediately after signing. Inge actually took to his new position extremely well, but his bat never came around, and it was only after he moved to third base that his offense perked up to the point where he has become a valuable player. If the Tigers had cut out the middleman and just moved him to third base from the start, he might have developed quicker.
Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall COL 3B 84-91 + 5.1%* - 57.0%* +133.1%* + 4.1% COL 3B 92-99 + 13.4%* +171.3%* SSS + 55.2% COL 3B 84-99 + 8.7% + 20.9% +186.4%* + 24.4% Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts 84-91 Robin Ventura, Ken Caminiti Tim Costo, Stan Royer 92-99 Jason Giambi, Aaron Boone Antone Williamson, Gabe AlvarezTroy Glaus and Pat Burrell would almost certainly surpass Aaron Boone on the list of recent bargains if 2005 data was included. Like catcher, third base is a position whose return on investment has increased markedly over the years. While Ventura and Caminiti were great draft picks, the return on third basemen from the 1980s was hit hard by five first-round busts from 1987-91. In chronological order: Chris Donnels, Royer, Eddie Zosky, Costo, and Eduardo Perez.
Only twelve college third basemen were selected in the top 100 from 1992 to 1999, but the dozen included Giambi, Boone, Glaus, and Burrell. Phil Nevin was a #1 overall selection who has almost earned his expected value, but with a career arc so delayed that the Astros received essentially nothing for him. As at second base and first base, the key to success at the hot corner seems to be to draft for the bat, and if the glove is a plus, that's a bonus. So while Ryan Zimmerman got off to a great start, chances are Alex Gordon will still prove to be the more valuable draft pick.
Pos Years 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd Overall COL OF 84-91 - 0.3% +103.7% +168.9% + 31.0% COL OF 92-99 - 12.8% + 34.0% - 44.8% - 5.3% COL OF 84-99 - 6.4% + 60.3% + 75.5% + 12.5% Years Biggest Bargains Biggest Busts 84-91 Barry Bonds, Marquis Grissom Donald Harris, Mike Kelly 92-99 J.D. Drew, Mark Kotsay Chad Mottola, Chad GreenThe "bargains" only scrape the tip of the iceberg; other guys drafted from 1984 to 1991 include Albert Belle, Tim Salmon, and Luis Gonzalez. From 1992 on, you can add Darin Erstad, Jacque Jones, and Brad Wilkerson to the list. It's interesting that the system tabs J.D. Drew as the best draft pick among college outfielders in the 1990s, given that a half-dozen teams passed on him in the draft solely because of his contract demands.
But the only reason there are so many bargains is that there are so many draft picks from the outfield ranks--outfielders have actually returned less value than any other college position. The four busts listed above give you a pretty strong clue as to why: while Chad Mottola was a well-regarded hitter who didn't hit, the other three were legendary tools guys who never converted their tools into production. Harris and Green in particular weren't impressive hitters in college, and more than a few heads were scratched when they were each drafted in the top 10.
Other college tools goofs who famously washed out as pros include Calvin Murray, the #7 overall pick in 1992; Ken Felder, the #12 pick the same year; Dante Powell (#22 in 1994). Shea Morenz (#27 in 1995). Keith Reed (#33 in 1999). And, of course, Jason Tyner (#21 in 1998). That's just a sampling. There have been a LOT of draft picks, particularly high first-rounders, that have been wasted on college outfielders. Chris Gwynn. Steve Hosey. Someone stop me…
The converse side of that is that the best draft picks out of college have been the guys who were already elite hitters; by and large, they didn't need a whole lot of projection to see them as quality major league hitters. No one was complaining about Barry Bonds' performance at Arizona State, or Albert Belle back when he was still known as Joey. Mark Kotsay's performance at Cal State-Fullerton was so impressive that he ended up being drafted #9 overall even though scouts were extremely lukewarm on his skills. Geoff Jenkins was a world-class masher at USC, and to this day Pete Incaviglia is one of the most legendary power hitters in NCAA history.
Not to belabor the point, but it's an important one to make: among college hitters, performance matters. The ability to hit against a strong level of collegiate competition is a very good indicator of one's ability to hit and be successful as a pro. The player whose tools have not translated into production at the college level is unlikely to learn how to turn the trick later on in life. Historically, most of the college players who have been drafted high on the basis of their "tools" have been outfielders, and not surprisingly outfielders have provided the least return on investment among all college hitters.
At the high school level, outfielders are pretty middle-of-the-pack in terms of value. This gets to the heart of the Scouts vs. Stats issue: you can't weigh scouting vs. statistical comparisons the same with an 18-year-old that you would with a 21-year-old. An 18-year-old who has tremendous athletic gifts but a questionable bat can reasonably be expected to learn how to hit as he matures. (Though it's still a gamble; hello, Reggie Taylor.) If you're still expecting a player to convert his tools into hitting ability when he's 21, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment.
The preseason favorite to be the first college hitter selected this year, Drew Stubbs from the University of Texas, may fit this profile. He has world-class speed and is considered a potential Gold Glover, but as one scouting director told Baseball America, "Stubbs can't hit. He never could hit, and he never will hit." While his .338/.449/.563 line to date is nothing to be ashamed of, neither is it the line of a player who is likely to go in the top half of the first round. (Especially since it's still an improvement over his .311/.384/.527 line as a sophomore.)
To sum up…here's a chart comparing the relative values of college hitters:
1984 - 1999 1992 - 1999 Pos Overall Pos Overall COL 1B +155.3% COL 1B +113.1% COL 2B + 41.0% COL 2B + 55.6% COL SS + 37.9% COL 3B + 55.2% COL 3B + 24.4% COL C + 49.8% COL C + 12.5% COL SS + 45.1% COL OF + 12.5% COL OF - 5.3%Overall, this is a very different picture from the one we saw with high school hitters. At the high school level, you want to avoid first and second basemen like the plague; at the college level, they are the two most fruitful positions to draft from. High school outfielders are a reasonable risk overall, but at the college level they are clearly the riskiest position to draft from.
Back soon with a look at pitchers.