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March 13, 2006

Future Shock

2006 Draft Notebook

by Kevin Goldstein

It’s only March, and the 2006 Major League Draft is nearly three months away, but it’s never too early to check with the talent evaluators to get an early look at which players are gaining and slipping on early boards. The high-school season has barely begun for most teams, but the college season is six weeks in for some teams, offering plenty of opportunity for players to make an early impression. Overall, this year’s talent is weaker than it's been in previous years, particularly among position players. “Last year, we had Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun,” said one National League scout. “This year, there is just nothing in that class when it comes to college hitters.” One American League front-office executive speculated that as many as 22 of the 30 first-round picks in June could be pitchers, while a scouting director remarked, “Even that number might be a little low.” Again, it’s early, and as a scout based on the East Coast put it, “We still have lots of times to see these guys. Somewhere between now and June, some guy will start exploding and everyone will suddenly be all over him . . . we just don’t know who that guy is yet.”

• Of what little positional talent there is in this year’s college class, much of it has been disappointing, other than Long Beach State infielder Evan Longoria (sorry, no relation to Eva). Looking to follow in the steps of recent Dirtbag infielders who went in the first round (Bobby Crosby in 2001 and Troy Tulowitzki in 2005), Longoria has been primarily playing third base this year (where he’s made just one error on the season), but had played shortstop in the past, leaving a debate as to whether he has the athleticism to play in the middle of the infield as a pro. “He’s the best college position player in the county for me, and he can play shortstop,” said an American League scouting director. “And guys from that school play in the big leagues, so the track record is nice,” he added. A National League scouting director saw Longoria as unable to play in the middle, leaving him questioning if he’ll hit enough as a third baseman. “I like Longoria plenty, but he’s too big and not quick enough to play second base or shortstop as a pro--if you draft him as a third baseman, you are buying into that power,” he added.

  PLAYER        TEAM    AVG  OBP  SLG  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR BI BB SO SB CS
  Evan Longoria LBSU   .375 .516 .569  72 11 27  3  1  3 13 19  5  3  1
  

• One player slipping in the minds of some is Texas center fielder Drew Stubbs. Entering the year ahead of Longoria by most accounts, Stubbs is a dynamic athlete and a fantastic outfielder, but he’s yet to convince some evaluators that he can make consistent contact at the major league level, as he’s recorded 167 whiffs in 629 college at-bats. However, with plus or better tools across the board, he may have a ceiling higher than any player in the draft. “He’s a 70 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] center fielder in the big leagues right now, and if he hits, he’ll have power--but I’m still on the fence about him,” said one scouting director. Another scouting director remains high on Stubbs, seeing him as the top college position player. “He just has such great tools, and such great athleticism and he’s one of the best 10 center fielders in baseball right now, at any level,” said the scouting director. “He doesn’t have to improve that much to be more valuable long-term than Longoria--Stubbs just has far more impact-player potential.” An amateur scout who recently saw Stubbs summed up the debate concisely. “He’s the kind of guy you hope is not on the board anymore when you pick. You don’t want to necessarily take him, but you don’t want to be the team that missed out on him either.”

  PLAYER        TEAM    AVG  OBP  SLG  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR BI BB SO SB CS
  Drew Stubbs   Texas  .338 .449 .563  80 23 27  5  2  3 15 16 21  9  2
  

• Pure power has been hard to come by among college hitters. Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta, who led the nation with 26 home runs last year, has been sidelined much of the year by a strained oblique muscle, while Tulane first baseman Mark Hamilton has stuggled at the plate. With a number of scouts in every weekend to see righthander Brandon Morrow (more on him in a bit), University of California outfielders Brennan Boesch and Chris Errecart are both getting plenty of eyeball time, and both have impressed--Scouts like Errecart’s bat speed, but prefer Boesch overall, who some see as having a chance to slip into the supplemental first-round. At 6'5", 215 pounds, the left-handed hitting Boesch offers more projection than his teammate and has drawn some Paul O’Neil comparisons. Also keep an eye on Wake Forest third baseman Matt Antonelli, who offers a power bat from third base, but not enough of an all-around game to get into the first round.

  PLAYER         TEAM     AVG  OBP  SLG  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR BI BB SO SB CS
  Matt Antonelli WForest .314 .435 .600  70 23 22  2  0  6 12 15 10  6  0
  Brennan Boesch Cal     .272 .329 .470  66 10 18  1  0  4 11  4  8  0  1
  Chris Errecart Cal     .308 .375 .600  65 13 20  1  0  6 13  4 12  0  1
  Matt LaPorta   Florida .308 .513 .538  28  7  8  0  0  2 10 10  5  0  0
  

• Pitching is the name of the day so far in this year’s draft, particularly on the college side. North Carolina lefthander Andrew Miller remains the early favorite to go number one to the Royals, as all teams love Miller’s size (6'6", 210) and his two plus-plus pitches--a 92-97 mph fastball and a nasty slider that features heavy two-plane break. Fellow Tar Heel Daniel Bard also could be a top five pick, as he equals Miller’s velocity from the right side, and has better command. “When I saw Bard, he sat at 95-97 in the first inning and stayed there all day,” said a scouting director who recently saw the righty. “If you didn’t use a radar gun, you’d think it’s 91-92 . . . it’s just so easy and effortless.” Bard’s breaking ball is a power pitch, but can get a little slurvy.

  PLAYER            TEAM           ERA   IP    H  BB   K
  Daniel Bard       N.Carolina    1.93  28.0  15   4  35
  Andrew Miller     N.Carolina    0.64  28.0  14   7  33
  

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