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March 1, 2006

The World Baseball Classic

Davenport Translations, Part Two

by Clay Davenport

Yesterday, we began our look at the WBC by focusing on Pool A, which consisted of Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan. Today, we forge ahead with the three remaining Pools.

Pool B - United States, Mexico, Canada, South Africa

The US is probably the strongest team in the tournament. The secret to that rating is their depth. There are a lot of countries who may have a .280 EqA third baseman, say…but if for some reason he doesn’t play, their next choice is down at .250, and if he can’t play, their next choice is at .230. By contrast, if the US loses a .280 player, they’ve got .275 and .270 guys lined up right behind--minimal dropoffs, even if they don’t get their first choice. The upshot of that is a US lineup with someone like Johnny Damon as their worst hitter, which is how they get an overall batter rating of .290--a narrow second place to the Dominican’s .292. But it is the pitching, and especially the bullpen, that really sets them apart, where they will line up Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Huston Street, and Billy Wagner. Overall, the US gets a 134 rating--tops in the tourney. The US' Batting DT is here and the Pitching DT is here (again, the file can be viewed in your browser, or in a plain text editor).

Mexico and Canada are virtually even, with Mexico getting a 102 rating and Canada earning a 101. Mexico looks a little better offensively, with a fairly balanced lineup that avoids any deep holes. Canada has a better single hitter than anyone Mexico can claim (thank you, Jason Bay), but looks weak up the middle; Pete Orr looks like their best middle infield option, and that’s not so good. They look slightly better from the mound, but not by much. If all of the favorites advance, then the loser of the Canada/Mexico is going to be the best team watching the second round from their sofas. Their DTs are here: Mexico’s batting DT and Mexico’s pitching DT, Canada’s batting DT and Canada’s pitching DT.

South Africa’s team is similar to China, as far as how hard it is to evaluate, except that I don’t even have stats from a national league to work with. Most of their WBC players also participated in the 2005 World Cup, but that is not an endorsement. They went 0-8 at that tournament, and they were outscored 76-15. By comparing them to the Cubans, the South Africans score at about a 4 on the scale. I ran the tournament out 100 million times; South Africa still never won. Unless they are a lot better than they showed at the World Cup, they are the weakest team in the tournament. (Their Batting DT and Pitching DT.)

Simulation results (to win and finish second in first round):

Team     Rating   Win   Second   Advance
USA       134   .6131   .2569    .8700
Mexico    102   .1964   .3731    .5695
Canada    101   .1904   .3665    .5569
S. Africa       .0001   .0035    .0036 (won 119 out of one million)