Printer-friendly

Contact Author

January 9, 2006

Prospectus Today

The Ballot

by Joe Sheehan

Tomorrow, the results of the BBWAA balloting for the Hall of Fame will be announced. This is the weakest year in memory for new candidates, with none of the 14 first-timers likely to ever crack 50% in the balloting, much less find their images cast in bronze. With the electorate’s votes being tallied, I wanted to take a belated look at the ballot and offer some opinions. I will not make elaborate statistical arguments in this space; for more detail, you should read Jay Jaffe’s excellent pieces in which he evaluates the 29 players using his JAWS system.

Of the 14 new candidates, at least 10 are probably making their only appearance. Rick Aguilera, Gary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Ozzie Guillen, Gregg Jefferies, Doug Jones, Hal Morris, Walt Weiss and John Wetteland all had prominent places in the game in their time, winning awards, making All-Star teams and contributing to championships. None, however, even passes the sniff test for Hall of Fame consideration. Their inclusion on this ballot is an honor unto itself, one that will likely serve as the sole coda to their playing careers.

Four other newcomers had careers that deserve a bit more mention. Albert Belle, Will Clark, Dwight Gooden and Orel Hershiser.

• Belle was a dominant hitter even in an era filled with dominant hitters. His nine-year peak, from 1991 through 1999, is clearly that of a Hall of Fame talent. Outside of that period, however, he had almost no value, thanks to a hip injury that ended his career shortly after his 33rd birthday. The lack of any decline phase leaves his career totals in line with other middling candidates, even as his rate stats scream, “inner circle.”

  Belle doesn’t have much to lean on other than his bat. He should have been the 1995 AL MVP, losing out as much to his own poor press and public relations as to winner Mo Vaughn. An average defender at his best, he was an indifferent left fielder the latter half of his career, and he had no moments or accomplishments that would spruce up his argument. Belle was a contributor to the Indians’ mid-‘90s resurgence, although he left the team after the ’96 season and did not play in the postseason after that.

  To a certain extent, this is a moot point. The BBWAA looks largely at career counting stats, and Belle’s won’t separate him from the other outfielders on the ballot or from his peers to come. Any evaluation of Belle’s candidacy is going to suffer from the inevitable discussion of the suspensions and outbursts that marked his career. Had he achieved any kind of decline phase, adding some years as a league-average hitter, there would be little question about his eventual induction. As is, Belle has little chance to make the Hall of Fame, and may slip from the ballot quickly. I’m comfortable with the idea that he’s not a Hall of Famer, but I do think his peak performance deserves consideration.

  The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

  Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.