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November 11, 2005

Prospectus Today

AFL Report

by Joe Sheehan

Last weekend, I attended my fourth First Pitch Arizona, a seminar sponsored by Baseball HQ. Ron Shandler has been inviting me to participate as a speaker since 2002, for which I've been honored. As I've said, though, the year that Ron goes in a different direction, I'll likely show up anyway. I can't say enough for the event--three days filled with baseball and great people, the kind of thing that's a highlight of any year. Take a BP Ballpark Feed and make it five times better, and you'll have some idea of what the weekend is like.

The forum is built around the Arizona Fall League schedule, with sessions in the mornings with top fantasy baseball analysts like Shandler, Jeff Barton of Scoresheet Sports, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire and Rick Wilton of Baseball HQ, as well as more "real baseball" guys like Jim Callis of Baseball America, Neyer and myself. Then, in the afternoons and evenings, you take off to various Phoenix-area (in some cases, that's a generous term) ballparks to see top prospects square off. The AFL games are played in an environment much like spring training before spring training went Fodor's--small crowds, great seats, no hype.

The ballgames are just fantastic. Set aside that you're getting to see prospects like Lastings Milledge, Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon. You're watching baseball in November with a group of like-minded addicts, sitting in the sunshine and moving easily between discussion of so-and-so's status within his organization to remembrances of the early-'90s Yankees to…well, to discussions that happen when groups of guys get together.

Now, I am not a scout. And despite the protestations of at least one forum attendee this weekend, I think I get myself in the worst trouble when I let my eyes do evaluations for me. I certainly think analysts who have that club in their bag, guys who have more experience with observational evidence like Callis, Deric McKamey and John Sickels, bring a bit more to the table. I've been watching baseball for 30 years or so, but I can be badly fooled by one or two games, as my impassioned support of Carlos Pena and Sean Burroughs has shown.

So as you read the following notes, keep in mind a couple of things: these are based on a couple days of observation by someone who isn't trained to do this kind of work. I will pass along, where I can, the opinions of various people I talked to, but again, take those with a grain of salt; for the most part, everyone is working off of small sample sizes for players at the end of long seasons playing in an environment tilted towards hitters.

For more on every player in the AFL, I'd recommend the Mastersball.com Arizona Fall League Guide. It includes stat lines and scouting reports--a mix of performance analysis, opinion and scouting--on almost every player in the league, and is the only AFL-specific publication out there. I should disclose that I get an unofficial kickback on sales, as Jason Grey and his staff are prone to funneling money to my pocket in late-night poker games.