CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Approxima... (11/02)
Next Article >>
UTK Special (11/03)

November 2, 2005

Watch the Leather

Handicapping the 2005 Gold Glove Awards

by Clay Davenport

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

It's Gold Glove time in the majors, and once again we'll handicap the races using the BP fielding metrics.

On all of the tables below, the fielders will be rated by the familiar stat-stat-stat routine, only instead of AVG, OBP, and SLG, they will be Fielding Rate, Runs Above Replacement, and Runs Above Average (using the in-season, rather than the all-time, version). Since the awards are as much about reputation as performance, and since a reputation usually takes time to acquire, we'll break the stats out into 2005 only, 2004 and 2005 combined, and career. Asterisks (*) will designate the 2004 winner.

On to the awards!

Catcher


National League
Player, Team             2005        2004-05       Career
Brad Ausmus, Hou       107-30-8     104-51-9     107-388-106
*Mike Matheny, SF      104-28-5     107-59-16    106-272-64
Yadier Molina, StL     117-38-18    114-48-21    114-48-21
Brian Schneider, Was   111-30-11    110-65-23    111-126-47

The NL voters have an interesting decision on their hands. Mike Matheny may be the defending champ, and while he had a solid 2005 season it a) wasn't as good as the other three, and b) came for a disappointing San Francisco team that didn't make the playoffs. Brian Schneider has the best two-year total of the group. Brad Ausmus has two awards already and the best career RAA of the contenders. Yadier Molina had the best 2005 season, and doesn't have the career numbers because he's only played a half season prior to this year. He did catch the team with the best record in the NL and he's got a Gold Glove family connection with the Molinas of Los Angeles of Anaheim. I think Molina should get the GG, I have the feeling that Ausmus will, and I wouldn't be put out if Schneider got it.

American League
Player, Team              2005        2004-05       Career
Rod Barajas, Tex        107-29-8     105-50-10     100- 71-2
Joe Mauer, Min          109-30-10    109-37-12     109-37-12
*Ivan Rodriguez, Det    108-30-9     102-48-5      111-520-183
Jose Molina, LAA        130-26-16    123-47-26     116-66-30

Ivan Rodriguez is the defending GG winner, has more GGs than any catcher in history, and also has more career FRAA than any catcher in history. He bounced back from a sub-par 2004 to post a season squarely in the leader board, which should be all that is required to keep getting the award from the voters. Joe Mauer had a promising beginning despite his knee problems, Molina has been incredible in a mostly backup role, and Rod Barajas is a mostly average catcher who had a good year. I'd be shocked if it wasn't I-Rod. [Ed. Note: This article was submitted before the awards were announced. Clay is shocked.--JDE]

First Base


National League
Player, Team                2005        2004-05      Career
*Todd Helton, Col         114-28-19    115-61-43   110-201-124
Nick Johnson, Was         109-20-11    107-28-14   105-38-16
Derrek Lee, Chi           109-24-14    109-50-29   107-138-70
Lyle Overbay, Mil         111-24-15    108-43-25   110-59-36

In the AL, I think Lee and Overbay could very easily be winners, but the competition is stiffer here thanks to Todd Helton. Helton is the defending champ, and makes a clean sweep of all three categories, even though Overbay and Lee have performed at legitimate GG levels--Helton's just been better, and his career total is rapidly moving up the all-time lists. Voters could be swayed by Lee's Triple Crown run in batting, and he did beat out Helton two years ago. Helton should win, but none of the four listed would be a disgrace to the award.

American League
Player, Team              2005       2004-05       Career
*Darin Erstad, LAA      109-23-12   109-43-14   105-61-25
Paul Konerko, Chi       107-20-10   102-23-5     99-50-(-8)
Travis Lee, TB          114-21-14   113-22-14   107-115-59
Mark Teixeira, Tex      108-23-12   104-33-13   104-44-17

Using the wrasslin' analogy that you have to clearly beat the champ to get the belt, I think Erstad will pick up his second GG at first base. His main competition should come from Travis Lee, who barely played in 2004 but had the best 2005 season and has the best career numbers. Teixeira has potential to pick up one in another year or two. How Konerko got on the list I'm not sure; the fielding routine had a mania for all things White Sox, and I think Konerko is winding up with some credit that rightfully belongs elsewhere on the team.

Second Base


National League
Player, Team               2005          2004-05       Career
*Luis Castillo, Fla      108-27-9      106-55-15     98-156-(-17)
Craig Counsell, Ari      109-35-13     109-35-13    109-101-34
Marcus Giles, Atl        106-32-9      108-55-18    109-125-41

The BP metrics have always been kind to Atlanta second basemen, above and beyond their defensive reputations. I've always wondered if it was a Leo Mazzone thing, something about the way he gets his pitchers to work the hitters to generate lots of weak grounders to second, and maybe we'll get the chance to find out next year. Nobody stands clearly above the pack in the NL, and I expect the voters will take the easy way out and stick with the defending champ, Castillo (who had a better year this year than last). Counsell is a popular guy, though, and had the best 2005.

American League
Player, Team              2005          2004-05       Career
*Bret Boone, Sea/Min     97-11-(-3)   94-23-(-14)  102-332-41
Ron Belliard, Cle       110-37-14    102-53-7      100-124-(-1)
Mark Ellis, Oak         109-29-10    109-29-10     102-61-6
Orlando Hudson, Tor     114-37-17    113-72-33     115-130-63
Brian Roberts, Bal      104-28-6     101-48-3      101-69-3

We hope this is the year that the award stops going to Bret Boone, who shouldn't have come close to winning last year. The choice here is easy--Orlando Hudson is hands down the premier second baseman in the AL right now, and should have won last year in a walk. I think since Boone stopped hitting everyone is going to be able to see that he's done, and all the rest of the AL second basemen are journeymen fielders who had a really good year.

Third Base


National League
Player, Team                2005        2004-05       Career
David Bell, Phi           107-25-11    106-45-18     104-104-31
Vinny Castilla, Was       106-20-8     107-44-18     104-213-53
Morgan Ensberg, Hou       105-22-8      98-20-(-4)   101-40-5
Mike Lowell, Fla          109-24-12    108-48-21     107-148-61
*Scott Rolen, StL         111-11-6     113-44-25     110-238-116

Did Rolen play enough? The five-time defending champ only played 50-odd games at third this year, which might be reason enough to pass the torch to someone else. On the other hand, he was very good when he was in, still has a better two-year RAA than anyone else in the league, and is an all-time great on the career side. If you're going to give a Gold Glove to someone who only played 56 games, Rolen is exactly the kind who should get it. If they decide not to go with him, I think Ensberg can be ruled out as being a fluky good year. Bell, Castilla, and Lowell are all reasonable choices if you don't go with Rolen.

American League
Player, Team              2005       2004-05      Career
Adrian Beltre, Sea      106-24-9    107-51-21   99-91-(-11)
*Eric Chavez, Oak       106-24-9    106-44-17   103-118-26
Joe Crede, Chi          109-24-11   101-29-3    100-48-2
Brandon Inge, Det       109-30-14   107-36-15   107-36-15

It seems strange, that a converted catcher playing his first full year at third should have the top RAA in the league, but that is what Brandon Inge managed to accomplish. The statistics are tighter than I think real life will be. Chavez is a four-time winner who, for whatever reason, doesn't do as well in the BP fielding stats as his reputation in life would suggest. Statistically, you'd pick either Inge for this year, Beltre for the two-year total, Chavez for the career total, or Crede for the post-season performance. I think Chavez probably did enough to keep it.

Shortstop


National League
Player, Team             2005        2004-05     Career
Rafael Furcal, Atl     114-41-20   109-64-24    103-130-22
*Cesar Izturis, LA     109-24-9    103-46-8     102-86-9
Neifi Perez, Chi       115-35-18   112-48-21    109-243-92
Omar Vizquel, SF       108-32-11   104-52-10    102-401-54
Jack Wilson, Pit       111-38-16   109-72-28    105-132-32

Izturis is another one who followed up his GG season with an even better statistical performance, but still isn't among the very top guys in the league. Furcal had a great year, but he's never done anything remotely like this before. Vizquel has a long and distinguished career, even if the stats don't make him the second coming of Ozzie Smith, and had a good year. Jack Wilson, poor guy, is stuck in Pittsburgh and can't attract the attention that GG typically requires. Neifi Perez, for all of his faults, is a terrific defensive shortstop, and did win the GG back in 2000. I think he should get it this year, but everybody has a viable case.

American League
Player, Team              2005       2004-05       Career
Orlando Cabrera, LA     105-29-6    100-44-(-1)   106-211-60
*Derek Jeter, NY        105-31-7    102-52-5       91-169-(-134)
Johnny Peralta, Cle     113-40-18   112-40-17     110-53-20
Juan Uribe, Chi         108-35-11   109-45-16     110-118-47

As Castillo, as Izturis, so Jeter. This is the first time in his career that the BP system has given Derek Jeter a solidly above average mark, and I can't begin to tell you how much his last two seasons have made me go back and tear his first eight seasons apart. I just can't find any way to reconcile record low assist numbers with genuinely good shortstop play, no matter what assumptions and adjustments you try to work in. So, anyways, he's a defending champ, had a better year than last, but does that mean he keeps the award? Could be. Peralta had the best single-season numbers, but he's a rookie (well, no, not really; everyone forgets 2003). Cabrera came back from an off-year to post reasonably good numbers, although I'd probably pick Jeter if forced to choose between them. I think Uribe is probably the best fielder of the lot, and that he probably deserves some of the RAA that wound up in Konerko's column.

Outfield


National League
Player, Team             2005        2004-05     Career
Jason Bay, Pit         104-18-6    103-28-9    103-30-10
Carlos Beltran, NY     104-23-6    104-48-12   103-150-28
Brady Clark, Mil       103-21-4    101-29-3    100-38-0
*Jim Edmonds, StL      115-34-19   111-62-30   106-257-82
Cliff Floyd, NY        110-24-14   105-28-12    99-68-(-8)
*Andruw Jones, Atl     101-20-2    104-49-12   110-295-132
Willy Taveras, Hou     111-31-15   110-31-15   110-31-15

Edmonds has won the award seven times already and is still going great guns--he's a lock for an eighth. Andruw Jones has won seven in a row and is likewise a lock for an eighth, even though the numbers say he lost a big step this year (and even 2004 was down from his previously historic performance levels). If I were picking, I'd probably give the third one to Willy Taveras, although I expect Carlos Beltran has the inside track. Actually, I'd go along with Beltran, if I was able to say for sure that what I suspect--that the program misappropriated runs for the Met outfield between Beltran and Floyd--was true.

American League
Player, Team              2005        2004-05       Career
*Torii Hunter, Min      101-14-1    100-28-0      100-112-3
Jacque Jones, Min       109-24-11   107-43-18     103-100-21
Scott Podsednik, Chi    107-20-9    100-28-(-2)    99-42-(-5)
Aaron Rowand, Chi       105-27-7    103-43-8      103-71-14
*Ichiro Suzuki, Sea     107-25-11   104-39-11     104-98-32
*Vernon Wells, Tor      106-30-9    103-43-9      101-91-8

No center fielder in the American League could manage to score 10 RAA this year, which throws the race for the three spots into a dreadful mess. Top RAA marks come from right field, where Suzuki and Jones both post deserving numbers--which means Suzuki, as a four-time defending champ, will get a fifth. Wells did have the top RAA in center field, and won the award last year, so he probably should hang on to it this year as well. Hunter's numbers have been down for several years, and while I think there's a good chance that he's too low and Jones is too high, I still find it easy to move him aside, in favor of Aaron Rowand.

Pitcher

What's the point of ranking them, since none of them have even 30 nine-inning games worth of action? Kenny Rogers and Mike Mussina have taken turns winning the AL GG for the past six years, but I think Rogers will keep it this year instead of giving it back…unless voters charge him for a huge error with the cameraman. Remember, though, that GG voting is done by the coaches, who I suspect will be just a little more forgiving about that than the media would be. Greg Maddux has won 14 of the last 15 awards. He and Rogers both appear in the top 10 for RAA by pitchers this year, so unless Tom Glavine or Jake Westbrook can pull a surprise, expect them to add to their trophy collection.

Related Content:  The Who,  Cameraman,  A-rod

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Approxima... (11/02)
Next Article >>
UTK Special (11/03)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Circling Back to The Holy...
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: The Season's Most D...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 23, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Wren's End
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Backing Off Backstop Pros...
Prospectus Feature: Colin Moran and the Matt...
Baseball Therapy: Will StatCast Cure Our Def...

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 2, 2005
Premium Article Can Of Corn: Approximate Psychic
Prospectus Notebook: White Sox, Marlins

MORE BY CLAY DAVENPORT
2006-03-23 - Premium Article About Outs
2006-03-01 - Premium Article The World Baseball Classic
2006-02-28 - Premium Article The World Baseball Classic
2005-11-02 - Premium Article Watch the Leather
2005-10-03 - How Far They Fell
2005-09-12 - Premium Article Playoff Odds Report, 1964
2005-08-23 - Premium Article An Objective Hall of Fame
More...


INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2005-11-10 - Prospectus Notebook: Phillies, Giants