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September 2, 2005
Sometimes it's fun to look back at what you wrote earlier in the season and see what has come to pass since then. Other times, it's humiliating. It's an exercise that can cause smugness and embarrassment in equal measure. Looking for just that sort of duality of emotions, I have decided to take a stroll down Recent-Memory Lane and revisit some of the things I've written this season and see how they look in the colder light of the September day.
Besides, we must all stand naked before our predictions.
Yup. The Diamondbacks have a pretty secure eight-game lead on Colorado. All that stands in the way of making the prediction perfect is for the Giants to move into third place. That sounds reasonable.
And, from the same piece:
"The Rockies have got to be praying that Preston Wilson is putting up locally-inflated numbers come the All-Star break so that they can off-load him onto a team with outfield needs and a blind spot to what it is…"
Which is just what they did--almost to the day. Wilson's unadjusted OPS is nearly the same for Washington as it was for Colorado at the time he left. Obviously this means he's been playing slightly better since he departed Denver and it shows in his EqA. It's at .267 for the Nats while it was .262 for the Rox.
No exoskeletal cuisine for me. The White Sox got out of the walking blocks slowly--not that you have to haul ass when you when you walk--but have long since recovered. They're still next-to-last in the American League, but they're nowhere near setting any records. In fact, they won't even finish in the bottom ten in team walks since 1972. It's probably foolish to even discuss such matters as early as April 19, but, as I said at the time, "I swore I would never do as early as Tax Day…"
We won't know because they are quite far removed from that situation now, sporting a K:BB ratio of 816:502. That's still the most walks allowed in the National League, but the ratio problem is solved. In fact, apart from a few short-terms like Matt Anderson (4 Ks, 11 BBs), the Rockies starters and most-used relievers are well above the 1:1 point.
"Is this Baltimore team any different from the 2000-04 editions? Just because it's happened five years in a row doesn't mean it will happen again. One red flag is the number of runs they've allowed so far. As of Sunday, they had surrendered nearly five runs per game, the worst record among first-place teams. If that keeps up, how far are they going to get surrendering 784 runs this year?"
As we have seen, not very far at all. They're going to end up having allowed somewhere around 785 to 800 and we see where it's gotten them: a trip back to their old butt groove on the fourth-place couch.
And that's basically what has happened. The A's are 11 steals behind Boston and have moved up to ninth in the league in home runs.
Well said, man! Good show. Nicely done.
In the alternate universe where Bonds didn't get all those knee infections, I would stand behind this prediction.
This isn't going to happen. The Rays could win as few as 10 of their remaining 27 games, yes, but the Orioles won't cooperate on their end. Instead, they'll probably end up 10 to 12 games apart.
Young is currently at 21.6, a number that is not going to land him in the 40s nor among the best rookie pitching seasons of the last 25 years. Chacin, on the other hand, has continued to climb, although he will need a big finish to even crack the 20-best rookie campaigns since 1979.
If the Brewers can get through the last month without hitting another triple, they will have set the team low with 10. If they hit one more, they'll tie the '98 Orioles with 11. The White Sox and Yankees are currently at 11 and would also tie those O's if they didn't hit another one the rest of the way. The Reds have surged to 14.
The Rangers have actually increased their home run output since then. At the time, they were pacing for about 250 homers. Now, they'll be good for around 265 if they keep hitting the way they have since then. If they can do it, this will put them beyond even the Maulin' Mariners of 1997 who smacked 264.