Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Rafa... (08/01)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Hit List: W... (08/02)

August 1, 2005

UTK Special

Rafael Palmeiro

by Will Carroll


Major League Baseball announced the suspension of Rafael Palmeiro on Monday. Under the terms of the collectively bargained Joint Testing Program, Palmeiro was suspended for ten days without pay. The likely Hall of Famer is by far the biggest name caught in the steroid dragnet. Palmeiro famously pointed his finger during sworn Congressional testimony, saying “Let me start by telling you this: I have never used steroids. Period. I don't know how to say it any more clearly than that. Never. The reference to me in Mr. Canseco's book is absolutely false.”

Rumors began circulating this weekend that something was brewing. I heard from no fewer than three independent sources that a “big story” was breaking. In retrospect, it appears that news of Palmeiro’s test and hearing before an arbitrator was leaking. Palmeiro becomes the seventh player that tested positive under the newly negotiated testing policy that took effect before the 2005 season. Palmeiro has issued a statement saying that he “has never intentionally taken steroids.” An independent arbiter heard his grievance and upheld the ten day suspension. This suspension brings up many questions, so I will try to answer them as best I can:

What did he test positive for?

This is unknown. Under the terms of the Joint Testing Policy, the substance that caused the positive test is not publicly released. It is also unclear from the policy whether the team is informed of the exact substance. Thus far, no testing results have publicly leaked. Data released from 2003 and 2004 indicates that the most abused substances were deca-durabolin and winstrol. Winstrol does not have a classical half-life, while “deca,” the drug that Jason Giambi admitted using, has an active half-life of up to fifteen days. The “detectable period” for Winstrol is about 3 weeks for the oral and two months for the injectable. Deca can be detected in the body as much as twelve to eighteen months after use.

If he didn’t take them intentionally, how did they get there?

If we accept Palmeiro’s statement that he did not intentionally take steroids, the most likely culprit would be that he took an over-the-counter supplement that contained a substance that metabolized into a substance that created the positive test. This is not unheard of, due to cross-contamination in some factories, lax testing procedures, and/or vague guidelines for what is and is not a banned substance. As a member of the “No Tolerance Committee” formed after the spring Congressional hearings, Palmeiro should have little or no excuse for ingesting any substance that could have held a banned substance. The NFL has created a procedure under which supplements can be “blessed,” meaning that they are certified as clear of any banned substance. MLB has no such procedure.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Rafa... (08/01)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Hit List: W... (08/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Introducing SIERA
Premium Article Future Shock: Dodgers Top 11 Prospects
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Florida Marlins
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: Catching conundrum
Introducing SIERA
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: The NL East

MORE FROM AUGUST 1, 2005
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Rafael Palmiero
Premium Article Lies, Damned Lies: The Manny Non-Deal
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: July 31
Premium Article Under The Knife: Upping the Workload
Fantasy Article Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Implications of the T...
The Week In Quotes: July 25-31

MORE BY WILL CARROLL
2005-08-05 - Premium Article Under The Knife: Good Stuff
2005-08-04 - Premium Article Under The Knife: Not-So-Swift Justice
2005-08-03 - Premium Article Under The Knife: Looking for Leadership
2005-08-01 - Premium Article UTK Special
2005-08-01 - Premium Article Under The Knife: Upping the Workload
2005-07-31 - Premium Article Will's Mill: Deadline Weekend
2005-07-30 - Premium Article Under The Knife: An Ugly Injury
More...


INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2005-08-09 - Prospectus Hit List: Week of August 7
2005-08-02 - Prospectus Hit List: Week of July 31