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July 15, 2005
Diversity and Unpredictability
CLOSEST MATCHUP (opponents closest to one another in the Prospectus Hit List rankings): Texas Rangers (7th) @ Oakland Athletics (11th)
The Rangers were very close to leading all of baseball in scoring heading into last night's game, trailing only the Yankees in that department and by only two runs at that. This makes Rich Harden's near-perfect game that much more impressive. It's one thing to blank a load of banjo hitters in this fashion, it's another to take down a team with the best infield in baseball--whether in their friendly home ballpark or not.
Harden posted a Game Score of 91. How does this rate in complete-game shutouts against baseball's highest scoring teams? Since the advent of Ultra-Hi Skoring ™ in 1993 (rolled out after a successful test-marketing in 1987), these are the best such games:
G Sc Pitcher Team Hi-Scoring Tm date 92 Jason Schmidt San Francisco vs. Boston 6/20/2004 92 Ted Lilly Toronto vs. Boston 8/23/2004 91 Rich Harden Oakland vs. Texas 7/14/2005 90 Pedro Martinez Boston vs. Chi. White Sox 7/23/2000 89 Tim Hudson Oakland vs. Boston 8/11/2004 89 Chuck Finley Anaheim vs. Seattle 7/6/1997 86 Dwight Gooden NY Yankees vs. Seattle 5/14/1996 86 Pat Hentgen Toronto vs. Cleveland 5/20/1994 85 Mike Hampton Houston vs. Cleveland 7/18/1999 83 Tim Wakefield Boston vs. Seattle 7/29/1997 83 Jack McDowell NY Yankees vs. Cleveland 9/11/1995Harden's outing rates pretty well. Gooden's game was his no-hitter. It would have ranked higher except he walked six batters. Hampton's start came against the highest-scoring team of recent times, the '99 Indians, a club that averaged 6.23 runs per game.
Going back slightly before the Ultra-Hi Skoring ™ era, in 1992, a pitcher named Tim Fortugno threw such a game against the Tigers. Although Detroit won only 75 games that year, they did pace the majors in scoring with a mark of 4.88 runs per game. Fortugno struck out 12 while walking four and surrendering three hits for a Game Score of 89. He was a 30-year old rookie who only made five career starts and this was his only complete game.
When you watch the Rangers play, there isn't a lot of extraneous movement on the basepaths. Consider that they have the fewest sacrifice bunts in baseball (2), have drawn the fewest intentional walks (9) and have had the fewest sacrifice flies (12). Their 36 stolen-base attempts are third-fewest. The only teams with less are these A's and the Red Sox, a team currently sporting a Beltranesque 25-for-27 success rate.
BEST MATCHUP (opponents with best combined Prospectus Hit List rankings): Chicago White Sox (2nd) @ Cleveland Indians (6th)
Why is baseball the greatest game in the history of human endeavor? Consider three games from last night that happened to be sequential in the report I was looking at. The first was a 12-9 Kansas City victory over the Tigers in Detroit. That's 21 combined runs in a pitcher's park. Down the road in Cleveland, the Indians and White Sox opened their series with a 1-0 game. At one time, a 1-0 game at the Jake would have been fairly novel, but the park been drifting toward favoring the pitcher over the past few years. The next line score down was the Yankees versus the Red Sox, an 8-6 game won in the ninth by one of the game's premier players facing one of its premier pitchers taking on a new roll.
Those are run totals of one, 14 and 21. Diversity and unpredictability, two elements at the core of what makes this game superior to all others. (Note to MLB accounts payable, make check payable to "James Baker.")
Here are the five highest VORP figures among position players who were not allowed to attend the 2005 All Star Game without a ticket:
Travis Hafner, Indians - 44.4 Hideki Matsui, Yankees - 38.6 Carlos Delgado, Marlins - 34.6 Nick Johnson, Nationals - 31.4 Adam Dunn, Reds - 30.8Just for bar-fighting material, here are the top uninvited starting pitchers:
Jarrod Washburn, Angels - 32.1 Brett Myers, Phillies - 30.9 Freddy Garcia, White Sox - 30.0 John Patterson, Nationals - 29.5…and their bullpen counterparts:
Mike Timlin, Red Sox - 19.4 Pete Walker, Blue Jays - 19.1 Cliff Politte, White Sox - 18.7 Huston Street, Athletics - 17.6 Dan Wheeler, Astros - 17.3WORST MATCHUP (opponents with worst combined Prospectus Hit List rankings, provided both are in the lower half): Colorado Rockies (28th) @ Cincinnati Reds (27th)
The Rockies' All-Star--reliever Brian Fuentes--did not appear in the game on Tuesday night. This is the first time in Rockies history that this has happened. Whether or not this is a good or bad thing is debatable. The Rockies have not shown well in their All-Star Game appearances. They've hit .152 and slugged .333 as a group. Granted, it's only 33 at-bats and you could probably find a few teams who fared about as poorly over the same time period. True, also, that they were facing the best pitchers in the world and that they were away from Colorado in all instances but one--and you know what happens to the Rox when they leave Denver.
The Rockies All-Star Game highlights are these:
Oh, who are we kidding? The best Rockies moment in an All-Star Game came in 1997 when Walker put his helmet on backwards and jumped batter's boxes after a Randy Johnson pitch sailed over his head.