June 29, 2005
Can Of Corn
Anti-Triple Crown Contenders
If you've given even fleeting attention to the current major league baseball season, you're no doubt aware that Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee has at least an outside shot at claiming the Triple Crown. If Lee pulls it off, he'd be only the 15th player since 1900 to lead his league in batting average, home runs and RBI. The weaknesses of batting average, home runs and RBI as evaluative tools are legion, but, like most flawed statistics, they are telling at the margins. If you're leading the league in these categories, you're going to be a productive player regardless of what the more evocative statistics say. Of course, the same applies to the other, uglier end of the continuum.
A slightly rarer and thoroughly less distinctive honor is what we might call the "Anti-Triple Crown," i.e., when a batter with a qualifying number of plate appearances finishes last in the league in batting average, home runs and RBI.
This latter indignity is pertinent because, at present, Tony Womack of the Yankees and Cristian Guzman of the Nationals both have reasonable shots at "winning" the Anti-Triple Crown. Here's a list of those players to plumb such depths since 1900:
Year League Player PA AVG HR RBI 1914 AL George McBride 552 .203 0 24 1915 NL Herbie Moran 493 .200 0 21 1919 NL Jack Smith 435 .223 0 15 1920 AL Ivy Griffin 495 .238 0 20 1929 NL Freddie Maguire 518 .252 0 41 1931 NL Freddie Maguire 513 .228 0 26 1945 NL Woody Williams 523 .237 0 27 1956 AL Willy Miranda 508 .217 2 34 1970 AL Mark Belanger 518 .218 1 36 1971 NL Enzo Hernandez 606 .222 0 12 1979 NL Ozzie Smith 627 .211 0 27 1981 NL Ivan DeJesus 450 .194 0 13 2003 AL Ramon Santiago 507 .225 2 29Some observations on these data before we level our gaze at "Guzmack":
As for Womack and Guzman, here's how they currently stack up:
Player AVG/Rank HR/Rank RBI/Rank Womack .239/93rd of 105 0/T-Last 11/Last Guzman .200/Last 3/T-83rd of 104 13/T-99th of 104As you can see, Womack has significant ground to make up in the AVG department. However, he still has a shot. Bottom feeders John Buck and Aaron Boone or Casey Blake could easily fall short of qualifying, and others like Richard Hidalgo, Steve Finley and Tino Martinez are likely under-performing in terms of AVG. Still, much needs to happen. Womack's tied with Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall in the homers category--it's entirely possible someone in the AL will finish without a single bomb. Womack's RBI tally is only one shy of Nook Logan's, so that'll be a tight one, as well.
As Guzman goes, he's last in AVG, by a full 19 points, so that mark appears safe. The HR race looks untenable for him at first blush, but only two homers separate him from the anti-lead. Guzman also has a couple of factors in his favor with regard to making up ground in the RBI chase. One, he's batting low in a lineup that has general OBP issues and playing in a park that suppresses scoring; two, many of the players behind him figure to get less playing time as the season wears on.
(As a tactical aside, why in the name of all that is holy does Guzman have four intentional walks? The answer, of course, is that he often bats in the eight hole, and many NL managers are beholden to the idea that the eighth hitter should be walked in situations of critical mass to get to the pitcher's spot. But if your reliever can't retire the likes of Guzman, why is he on the roster?)
So if schadenfreude on the individual level is your thing and your HACKING MASS team isn't cutting it, there's something to follow for the balance of the season. Viva la Guzmack!