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June 25, 2005

Prospectus Today

Flying High

by Joe Sheehan

Thanks in large part to a sweep over the visiting Texas Rangers this week, the Angels have established a 5 1/2-game lead in the AL West. This isn't quite as impressive a feat as it's been for most of the 21st century, of course. With the A's and Mariners stumbling along below .500, and the Rangers a flawed squad, the AL West has ceded its position as the toughest division in the game. Still, a hot June has pushed the Angels to the second-best record in the AL, and the third-best in all of baseball.

This is a pretty neat trick given how bad the Angels' offseason moves have turned out. Bill Stoneman made just two significant moves over the winter, signing center fielder Steve Finley and shortstop Orlando Cabrera to big-money deals. Neither player has been productive; Finley has looked his age, hitting .225/.287/.408 and playing a below-average center field. Cabrera is at .246/.298/.355, or about what he was hitting before his trade to the Red Sox last summer. Cabrera is, however, playing very good defense, already saving six runs beyond an average shortstop per Clay Davenport.

Of course, any number of disappointing signings last winter are more than made up for by the masterstroke from early 2004, the signing of Vladimir Guerrero. Coming in at a bargain price due to a buyer's market and concerns about his back, Guerrero won an MVP award last year and is a dark horse candidate to repeat in '05, putting up a .338/.392/.570 line and a .334 EqA that places him fourth in the AL. He lacks a comparable rank in the other Davenport metrics because of a partially dislocated left shoulder, suffered on an awkward slide, that sidelined him for about three weeks (18 games).

It's only a slight exaggeration to say that Guerrero is the Angels' offense. His .334 EqA is 48 points higher than any other Angel has posted, and even with the missed time, he's been worth more than a win more than any of his teammates, per both RARP and VORP. (It's worth noting that they actually averaged 5.4 runs per game during his absence, well above the 4.5 they've averaged the rest of the time. However, that figure was a bit inflated by a visit from the Royals, and they scored three runs or fewer in seven of the 18 games.)

Even with Guerrero, this is a marginal offense. The Angels rank seventh in the AL in runs scored and eighth in EqA. They're tenth in OBP and ninth in slugging, and outside of Guerrero they have no one who is well above average at their position. Guerrero aside, only Bengie Molina has even an 800 OPS. As is the case every year for the Angels, their run scoring depends entirely on how well they hit for average. They're at .271 this year, thanks to a .317 June that has seen four players hit .341 or better. They don't walk--13th in the AL--they don't hit for power--tenth in isolated power, 10th in home-run rate--and they're not anything special on the bases: third in steals, but just seventh in success rate.

Summing all this up: Secondary Average is a statistic that measures everything batting average doesn't; the Angels are 11th in the AL in it, ahead of three non-contenders. They need to keep Guerrero in the lineup, and they need to hit .280, or an already shaky group won't score enough runs to win.