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April 19, 2005

Prospectus Hit List

Week of April 17, 2005

by Jay Jaffe

Rk Team
Overall W-L
Week W-L
Trend
Comment
1 Dodgers
9-2
5-0
Up
Majors' most potent offense, thanks especially to Jeff Kent (.415/.529/.829/4 HR), who's scored in 10 straight games. Weekend shutouts from Derek Lowe and Jeff Weaver mean everything's coming up blue on the other side of the ball as well.
2 Marlins
6-6
3-3
Down
Team ERA (1.61) is still tops in majors, more than a run better than #2. Back-to back-shutouts from Dontrelle Willis averaged a tidy 105.5 pitches.
3 Twins
8-4
5-1
Up
Fill-ins Terry Tiffee and Dave Gassner came up big replacing injured cogs Justin Morneau and Carlos Silva; the former hit a homer in first game up from minors, while the latter pitched six strong innings and got the win in his debut.
4 Blue Jays
8-5
4-3
Up
Meet Gustavo Chacin: 24-year-old lefty with wins in his first three starts, 1.42 ERA in 19 IP. Spent five years in Double-A Eastern League before escaping via cut fastball (a/k/a the Sturtze Gambit).
5 Astros
5-6
1-5
Up
Stat line doubletake of the week: Jason Lane (.326/.319/.739).
6 Orioles
8-4
5-1
Up
Brian Roberts leads majors in EqA (.443) and RARP (14.4), heading up a potent offense that punished Yanks by a collective score of 23-11 this weekend.
7 Nationals
8-4
5-1
Up
Winners of five straight. Vinny Castilla (.429/.487/.857) and Jose Guillen (.327/.346/.714) making Jim Bowden look pretty smart...for now. But Frank Robinson knows that "numbers don't win you ballgames."
8 White Sox
8-4
4-2
Up
Rotation continues to be impressive, with a 3.16 ERA in nearly seven innings per start. Paul Konerko leads majors with six home runs.
9 Giants
6-5
2-3
Up
Barely missing Barry (and Moises): outfield hitting a combined .299/.347/.540 with nine homers, including three grand slams.
10 Red Sox
7-5
5-1
Up
Sweet week (ring ceremony, series win over Yanks) slightly overshadowed by Fenway fan flap with Gary Sheffield.
11 Mets
6-6
5-1
Up
Clawed their way back to .500 in a hurry. Pedro Martinez (2.45 ERA, 12.3 K/9) is looking like the model in the catalog. Note to Willie: get Jose Reyes (.278 OBP, 0 BB) out of the leadoff spot.
12 Mariners
6-6
4-2
Up
Ichiro is second in AL EqA (.390) and on a 284-hit pace. Richie Sexson's bat is healthy (.265/.342/.647), but he's missed three straight with flu.
13 Tigers
5-7
2-4
Down
Jeremy Bonderman: two good starts against Royals, who won't compete, but roughed up by Indians, who will. Meanwhile Magglio Ordonez's ill fortune continues with hernia.
14 Brewers
5-6
2-4
Down
Biggest win of the week: locking up Ben Sheets for four years, $38.5 million. Thank heavens for insurance.
15 Indians
5-7
2-4
Up
Anemic offense (.219/.294/.362) has team below .500 despite 3.82 ERA.
16 Rangers
6-7
3-4
Up
Though he's yet to win a game, Pedro Astacio (2.57 ERA, 7.1 K/9 in 14 innings) has looked very promising.
17 Phillies
6-6
3-3
Down
Brett Myers breaking out? One ER in 20.2 innings, 20:2 K/BB ratio.
18 Cubs
6-6
3-3
Down
We're through the looking glass: Nomar Garciaparra (.145 EqA) off to a frigid start, but Neifi Perez (.332 EqA) is en fuego.
19 Diamondbacks
6-6
3-3
Up
Javier Vazquez: 11.77 ERA in 13 innings pitched. Other starters (Russ Ortiz, Shawn Estes, Brad Halsey, Brandon Webb): 3.25 ERA in 55.1 innings pitched.
20 Braves
6-6
2-4
Up
Chipper Jones: .348/.434/.630. Rest of team: .234/.288/.360. This is what happens when Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi both get to play.
21 A's
6-6
3-3
Down
Moribund offense is last in EqA, with Eric Chavez (.223), Jason Kendall (.205) and Erubiel Durazo (.112) the worst offenders.
22 Angels
6-6
3-3
Down
Clues That Your Sample Size Is Too Small, 238: when Ben Molina (.336) leads your team in EqA.
23 Padres
5-7
2-4
Down
It's not easy being Khalil Greene: Padre SS heads to DL with another broken finger.
24 Cardinals
6-4
4-1
Up
Offense still stuck in first gear (.220/.283/.396). Mark Mulder: 8.18 ERA with 2.18 WHIP.
25 Reds
6-5
3-2
Down
Joe Randa (.385/.478/.769/4 HR) already halfway to last season's homer output.
26 Devil Rays
4-8
1-5
Down
Thank you for retiring, Roberto Alomar: 2B Jorge Cantu hitting .313/.320/.563. Survived "loss" of Alex Sanchez to steroids suspension.
27 Yankees
4-8
1-5
Down
Swept by O's while still smarting from Sox smackdown. It took Mount Steinbrenner this long to erupt? Team DER of .647 is 2nd-worst in all of MLB.
28 Royals
4-8
1-5
Down
Zack Greinke's six scoreless innings aside, latest turn through the rotation not so successful (18 ER in 23 IP). Royally screwed if their pitching bubble bursts.
29 Pirates
4-8
2-4
Up
Buried, perhaps, but no treasure. Oliver Perez has a 9.60 ERA in 15 innings, and team brass is upset he didn't follow offseason throwing program. Craig Wilson and Jack Wilson are hitting a combined .232/.320/.244.
30 Rockies
2-9
1-5
Down
No, that's not a new Boeing model; 7.84 ERA is, you guessed it, worst in majors. On the positive side, SS Clint Barmes (.395/.447/.744/4 HR) has started hot.

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jay's other articles. You can contact Jay by clicking here

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