Index: Voting
Results | Individual Ballots
Our authors, august worthies every one, wrap up the offseason with their predictions for 2005. Come Sunday, we will no longer need the future tense, as we’ll have actual baseball to discuss.
In part one of this two-part series, we focus on the American
League, concentrating on the division standings and the major
player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year). Tomorrow
we’ll conclude with the National League predictions, along with
the staff picks for the World Series representatives.
Each author’s division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a tidy
summary of the results. In each table you’ll find the average
rank of the team, plus the standard deviation. The lower the
standard deviation, the more in agreement the authors were about
that team’s place in the division standings. There was unanimous
agreement on the Royals’ fate for 2005, for example, but no one agreed
on where the Rangers would end up.
In highly important news, no author referred to the Angels as
the “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.”
AL EAST
Team Average Std. Dev. Boston Red Sox 1.08 .29 New York Yankees 1.92 .29 Baltimore Orioles 3.33 .65 Toronto Blue Jays 4.08 .51 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 4.58 .8
AL CENTRAL
Team Average Std. Dev. Minnesota Twins 1.33 .49 Cleveland Indians 1.75 .62 Detroit Tigers 3.42 .67 Chicago White Sox 3.5 .52 Kansas City Royals 5 0
AL WEST
Team Average Std. Dev. Oakland A's 1.42 .67 L.A. Angels of Anaheim 2 .74 Texas Rangers 3 .85 Seattle Mariners 3.58 .80
Individual Awards:
For the MVP voting, we’ve kept the traditional points system in
place that’s been used elsewhere: 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP
Award, and 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards
(that’s 10 points for a first place vote, 7 for a second place
vote, etc). The projected statistics appearing after each
player’s name are their 50th percentile 2005 PECOTA forecasts.
Legend:
- Hitters: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), AVG/OBP/SLG, VORP, WARP, EqA
- Pitchers: Ballots, Points, (1st Place Votes), IP, ERA, VORP, WARP
AL MVP
- Alex Rodriguez 10 76 (4) .286/.380/.547, 58.0, 9.8, .319
- Vladimir Guerrero 9 58 (3) .313/.385/.552, 55.3, 7.9, .322
- Eric Chavez 6 52 (4) .281/.378/.526, 45.2, 8.4, .311
- Manny Ramirez 8 44 .306/.408/.571, 52.6, 7.4, .330
- Mark Teixeira 2 15 (1) .294/.378/.553, 39.7, 6.4, .306
- Hank Blalock 3 13 .287/.360/.504, 25.9, 5.8, .288
- Justin Morneau 3 13 .281/.349/.513, 26.6, 4.1, .293
- Victor Martinez 3 9 .280/.354/.456, 30.5, 5.5, .285
- Miguel Tejada 2 8 .293/.349/.498, 51.6, 8.7, .293
- Johan Santana 2 6 199, 2.91, 69.1, 8.7
- Travis Hafner 1 3 .282/.384/.518 40.9, 5.0, .312
- Hideki Matsui 1 3 .283/.373/.479 29.3, 5.5, .300
- David Ortiz 3 3 .284/.372/.549 42.7, 5.2, .310
- Vernon Wells 2 2 .287/.343/.490 29.5, 6.1, .284
- Randy Johnson 1 1 215.7, 2.83, 72.4, 9.5
- Joe Mauer 1 1 .298/.362/.453 25, 4.8, .286
- Sammy Sosa 1 1 .251/.337/.486 16.5, 3.5, .285
AL Cy Young
- Johan Santana 11 47 (7) 199, 2.91, 69.1, 8.7
- Randy Johnson 12 38 (4) 215.7, 2.83, 72.4, 9.5
- Rich Harden 4 14 (2) 152.7, 4.43, 22.3, 3.6
- Roy Halladay 3 5 165.0, 3.91, 36.5, 5.2
- Curt Schilling 2 2 207.7, 3.76, 52.9, 7.1
- Jeremy Bonderman 1 1 164.3, 4.70, 15.9, 3.4
- Keith Foulke 1 1 69.0, 3.43, 21, 2.7
- Cliff Lee 1 1 148.3, 4.73, 18.1, 3.4
- Mariano Rivera 1 1 80.3, 3.48, 20.5, 2.9
AL ROY
- Jeremy Reed 9 39 (6) .279/.345/.413, 15.2, 3.7, .277
- Dallas McPherson 6 22 (3) .267/.343/.491, 17.8, 3.2, .289
- Joe Blanton 2 6 100.3, 4.59, 12.8, 2.2
- Ian Kinsler 2 6 (1) .268/.335/.433, 10.8, 2.4, .262
- Brandon McCarthy 2 6 (1) 85.0, 4.76, 12.2, 2.0
- Ruben Gotay 1 5 (1) .256/.327/.403, 7.8, 2.3, .256
- Tadahito Iguchi 3 5 .272/.338/.401, 6.5, 1.8, .260
- Nick Swisher 3 5 .240/.344/.419, 8.6, 2.4, .272
- Jason Bartlett 2 4 .262/.334/.372, 6.2, 2.0, .255
- Scott Kazmir 2 4 98.3, 4.57, 13.0, 2.2
- Huston Street 1 3 66.0, 4.29, 10.9, 1.7
- Felix Hernandez 2 2 78.0, 4.16, 10.9, 1.8
- Jered Weaver 1 1 (PECOTA N/A)
- Will Carroll
- James Click
- Clay Davenport
- Jay Jaffe
- Rany Jazayerli
- Chris Kahrl
- Jonah Keri
- Dave Kirsch
- Dayn Perry
- Joe Sheehan
- Nate Silver
- Keith Woolner
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians A's Yankees (WC) Twins Rangers Orioles Tigers Angels Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals
Most Valuable Player
- Alex Rodriguez
- Eric Chavez
- Mark Teixeira
- Victor Martinez
- Sammy Sosa
Cy Young
- Rich Harden
- Randy Johnson
- Cliff Lee
Rookie of the Year
- Ian Kinsler
- Tadahito Iguchi
- Jered Weaver
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians A's Yankees (WC) Twins Mariners Devil Rays Tigers Angels Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Orioles Royals
MVP
- Alex Rodriguez
- Manny Ramirez
- Eric Chavez
- Johan Santana
- Vladimir Guerrero
CY
- Johan Santana
- Randy Johnson
- Curt Schilling
RoY
- Dallas McPherson
- Jeremy Reed
- Nick Swisher
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Yankees Twins Angels Red Sox (WC) Tigers A's Orioles Indians Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Alex Rodriguez
- Manny Ramirez
- Vlad Guerrero
- Hideki Matsui
- David Ortiz
CY
- Randy Johnson
- Johan Santana
- Mariano Rivera
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Joe Blanton
- Jason Bartlett
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins Angels Yankees (WC) Indians A's Orioles White Sox Rangers Blue Jays Tigers Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Vlad Guerrero
- Alex Rodriguez
- Manny Ramirez
- Travis Hafner
- David Ortiz
CY
- Johan Santana
- Randy Johnson
- Curt Schilling
RoY
- Dallas McPherson
- Jeremy Reed
- Scott Kazmir
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins A's Yankees (WC) Indians Angels Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Orioles Tigers Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Eric Chavez
- Vlad Guerrero
- Hank Blalock
- Miguel Tejada
- Vernon Wells
CY
- Rich Harden
- Johan Santana
- Randy Johnson
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Dallas McPherson
- Felix Hernandez
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees (WC) Twins A's Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Orioles Tigers Mariners Devil Fishies Royals
MVP
- Vlad Guerrero
- Justin Morneau
- Victor Martinez
CY
- Johan Santana
- Roy Halladay
- Randy Johnson
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Jason Bartlett
- Brandon McCarthy
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins A's Yankees (WC) Indians Angels Orioles Tigers Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Eric Chavez
- Alex Rodriguez
- Vlad Guerrero
- Manny Ramirez
- David Ortiz
CY
- Randy Johnson
- Johan Santana
- Roy Halladay
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Joe Blanton
- Tadahito Iguchi
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins A's Yankees (WC) Indians Angels Orioles White Sox Rangers Blue Jays Tigers Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Alex Rodriguez
- Hank Blalock
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Justin Morneau
- Victor Martinez
CY
- Randy Johnson
- Johan Santana
- Roy Halladay
RoY
- Brandon McCarthy
- Nick Swisher
- Ian Kinsler
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins A's Yankees (WC) Indians Angels Orioles Tigers Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Eric Chavez
- Alex Rodriguez
- Vlad Guerrero
- Manny Ramirez
- Randy Johnson
CY
- Randy Johnson
- Johan Santana
- Rich Harden
RoY
- Dallas McPherson
- Jeremy Reed
- Nick Swisher
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins Angels Yankees Indians A's (WC) Orioles Tigers Mariners Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Devil Rays Royals
MVP
- Vlad Guerrero
- Manny Ramirez
- Alex Rodriguez
- Justin Morneau
- Vernon Wells
CY
- Johan Santana
- Rich Harden
- Randy Johnson
RoY
- Ruben Gotay
- Huston Street
- Tadahito Iguchi
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Twins A's Yankees (WC) Indians Mariners Orioles White Sox Angels Devil Rays Tigers Rangers Blue Jays Royals
MVP
- Eric Chavez
- Alex Rodriguez
- Manny Ramirez
- Johan Santana
- Joe Mauer
CY
- Johan Santana
- Randy Johnson
- Jeremy Bonderman
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Dallas McPherson
- Felix Hernandez
STANDINGS
AL EAST AL CENTRAL AL WEST Red Sox Indians Rangers Yankees (WC) Twins Angels Devil Rays White Sox A's Orioles Tigers Mariners Blue Jays Royals
MVP
- Mark Teixeira
- Manny Ramirez
- Miguel Tejada
- Alex Rodriguez
- Hank Blalock
CY
- Johan Santana
- Randy Johnson
- Keith Foulke
RoY
- Jeremy Reed
- Scott Kazmir
- Dallas McPherson
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