Long-time readers will recognize the phrase “Three True Outcomes” (or TTO) as
referring to those plate appearances that end without a fielder touching the ball–the home run, the walk, and the strikeout. Baseball Prospectus has continued a tongue-in-cheek tradition of honoring players who excel in producing True Outcomes, a tradition
that began in the Usenet newsgroup rec.sport.baseball more than a decade ago.
The Three True Outcomes are, at their core, a celebration of hitters, epitomized by
the patron saint of the TTO, and the prototype for early BP book covers, Rob
Deer. Last year,
we introduced a more formal method for balancing the contribution from each True
Outcome to a hitter’s overall rating. To summarize that method, we compute each
hitter’s HR/PA, BB/PA, and SO/PA and divide it by the MLB average to normalize the
rate. We then look at the lowest value for each hitter (i.e. determining which
category he performed worst in compared to league average), and use that value as
the hitter’s overall score. This ensures that those who rise to the top of the
rankings truly embrace and produce all three True Outcomes in abundance.
So who tops the 2004 list? Let’s go straight to the table:
TTO – Three True Outcomes (total)
TTO% – Percentage of plate appearances ending with a True Outcome
NHR – Home run rate, normalized to league average (1.00 = average)
NBB – Walk rate, normalized to league average (1.00 = average)
NSO – Strikeout rate, normalized to league average (1.00 = average)
NAVG – Average of NHR, NBB, and NSO
NLST – Least of NHR, NBB, NSO (value in their worst category)
RK – Rank among all players (300+ PA) in the preceding category
NAME PA HR BB SO TTO TTO% RK NHR NBB NSO NAVG RK NLST RK Adam Dunn 681 46 108 195 349 51.2% 2 2.34 1.84 1.70 1.96 2 1.70 1 Jim Edmonds 612 42 101 150 293 47.9% 3 2.37 1.92 1.45 1.91 3 1.45 2 Carlos Pena 562 27 70 146 243 43.2% 8 1.66 1.45 1.54 1.55 16 1.45 3 Pat Burrell 534 24 78 130 232 43.4% 7 1.55 1.70 1.44 1.56 13 1.44 4 Jim Thome 618 42 104 144 290 46.9% 4 2.35 1.96 1.38 1.90 4 1.38 5 David Dellucci 387 17 47 88 152 39.3% 19 1.52 1.41 1.35 1.43 34 1.35 6 Brad Wilkerson 688 32 106 152 290 42.2% 11 1.61 1.79 1.31 1.57 11 1.31 7 Andruw Jones 646 29 71 147 247 38.2% 27 1.55 1.28 1.35 1.39 41 1.28 8 Hee Seop Choi 416 15 63 96 174 41.8% 13 1.25 1.76 1.37 1.46 28 1.25 9 Charles Johnson 362 13 49 91 153 42.3% 10 1.24 1.57 1.49 1.43 31 1.24 10 Carlos Delgado 551 32 69 115 216 39.2% 20 2.01 1.46 1.24 1.57 12 1.24 11 Hank Blalock 713 32 75 149 256 35.9% 44 1.55 1.22 1.24 1.34 49 1.22 12 Sammy Sosa 539 35 56 133 224 41.6% 14 2.25 1.21 1.46 1.64 7 1.21 13 Gary Matthews 317 11 33 64 108 34.1% 60 1.20 1.21 1.20 1.20 72 1.20 14 Cliff Floyd 457 18 47 103 168 36.8% 37 1.36 1.20 1.34 1.30 53 1.20 15 Casey Blake 668 28 68 139 235 35.2% 53 1.45 1.18 1.23 1.29 55 1.18 16 Mike Cameron 562 30 57 143 230 40.9% 17 1.85 1.18 1.51 1.51 21 1.18 17 David Ortiz 669 41 75 133 249 37.2% 35 2.12 1.30 1.18 1.53 17 1.18 18 Corey Koskie 488 25 49 103 177 36.3% 40 1.77 1.17 1.25 1.40 40 1.17 19 Jason Varitek 536 18 62 126 206 38.4% 25 1.16 1.34 1.39 1.30 52 1.16 20
There is one conspicuous omission from the table above. The overall MLB leader in
TTO% and average normalized score (NAVG) does not appear. How can this be?
NAME PA HR BB SO TTO TTO% RK NHR NBB NSO NAVG RK NLST RK Barry Bonds 617 45 232 41 318 51.5% 1 2.52 4.37 0.39 2.43 1 0.39 238
The mystery is easily solved. Barry Bonds had the highest
normalized home run rate and an absurdly high walk rate, but his stubborn refusal
to strike out more often costs him under the “best worst-category” criteria. He
embraces but two of the the True Outcomes, and despite his unparalleled production
of those two, he can’t aspire to the tripartite perfection that
those-who-would-be-Deer must.
With that issue set aside, we can see that 2003’s co-winners Adam
Dunn and Jim Thome continue to be True to form, both
ranking in the top 5. Jim Edmonds, who ranked 3rd last year, moves up to 2nd,
thanks to a slight decline in Thome’s strikeout rate. Pat Burrell
also returns to the top 10. Newcomers to the top 10 include Carlos
Pena (an impressive 3rd-place finish), David Dellucci,
Brad Wilkerson, Andruw Jones, Hee Seop
Choi, and Charles Johnson.
As to crowning the 2004 TTO champion, it comes down to Adam Dunn and Jim Edmonds,
who occupy the top two spots on our chart. Unlike last year, where Thome and Dunn
were #1/#2 and virtually indistinguishable in TTO production, Dunn has a significant
edge on Jim Edmonds in strikeout rate, while being very close in home run rate and walk
rate. So instead of co-champions, Baseball Prospectus is proud to award Adam Dunn
sole possession of the Three True Outcome title of 2004.
In addition to the overall award, for the first time, we’re honoring the individual
team leaders in Three True Outcome production as well. Those who best set the TTO
example for their teammates in 2004 are:
TEAM PA HR BB SO TTO TTO% NHR NBB NSO NAVG NLST NAME ANA 337 7 46 54 107 31.8% 0.72 1.59 0.95 1.08 0.72 Jeff DaVanon ARI 451 17 68 58 143 31.7% 1.30 1.75 0.76 1.27 0.76 Luis Gonzalez ATL 646 29 71 147 247 38.2% 1.55 1.28 1.35 1.39 1.28 Andruw Jones BAL 531 15 45 113 173 32.6% 0.98 0.98 1.26 1.07 0.98 Larry Bigbie BOS 669 41 75 133 249 37.2% 2.12 1.30 1.18 1.53 1.18 David Ortiz CHA 311 18 64 57 139 44.7% 2.00 2.39 1.09 1.83 1.09 Frank Thomas CHN 539 35 56 133 224 41.6% 2.25 1.21 1.46 1.64 1.21 Sammy Sosa CIN 681 46 108 195 349 51.2% 2.34 1.84 1.70 1.96 1.70 Adam Dunn CLE 668 28 68 139 235 35.2% 1.45 1.18 1.23 1.29 1.18 Casey Blake COL 362 13 49 91 153 42.3% 1.24 1.57 1.49 1.43 1.24 Charles Johnson DET 562 27 70 146 243 43.2% 1.66 1.45 1.54 1.55 1.45 Carlos Pena FLO 340 15 52 78 145 42.6% 1.53 1.78 1.36 1.55 1.36 Hee Seop Choi HOU 312 14 31 63 108 34.6% 1.55 1.15 1.20 1.30 1.15 Mike Lamb KCA 496 18 49 92 159 32.1% 1.26 1.15 1.10 1.17 1.10 Matt Stairs LAN 597 19 71 123 213 35.7% 1.10 1.38 1.22 1.23 1.10 Milton Bradley MIL 437 19 37 100 156 35.7% 1.50 0.98 1.36 1.28 0.98 Keith Ginter MIN 488 25 49 103 177 36.3% 1.77 1.17 1.25 1.40 1.17 Corey Koskie MON 688 32 106 152 290 42.2% 1.61 1.79 1.31 1.57 1.31 Brad Wilkerson NYA 322 12 47 62 121 37.6% 1.29 1.70 1.14 1.38 1.14 Jason Giambi NYN 457 18 47 103 168 36.8% 1.36 1.20 1.34 1.30 1.20 Cliff Floyd OAK 623 22 58 141 221 35.5% 1.22 1.08 1.34 1.21 1.08 Bobby Crosby PHI 534 24 78 130 232 43.4% 1.55 1.70 1.44 1.56 1.44 Pat Burrell PIT 555 17 50 114 181 32.6% 1.06 1.05 1.22 1.11 1.05 Rob Mackowiak SDN 623 26 66 121 213 34.2% 1.44 1.23 1.15 1.28 1.15 Phil Nevin SEA 658 24 56 135 215 32.7% 1.26 0.99 1.22 1.16 0.99 Bret Boone SFN 417 12 58 61 131 31.4% 1.00 1.62 0.87 1.16 0.87 J.T. Snow SLN 612 42 101 150 293 47.9% 2.37 1.92 1.45 1.91 1.45 Jim Edmonds TBA 636 21 76 117 214 33.6% 1.14 1.39 1.09 1.21 1.09 Jose Cruz Jr. TEX 387 17 47 88 152 39.3% 1.52 1.41 1.35 1.43 1.35 David Dellucci TOR 551 32 69 115 216 39.2% 2.01 1.46 1.24 1.57 1.24 Carlos Delgado
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