Florida
Marlins
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Delgado is Spanish for “Slim”: After a bidding war that drew in the
Rangers, Orioles and Mets, Carlos Delgado is now a
Florida Marlin. Though correlation does not imply causation, Delgado’s
four-year, $52 million deal did come just days before Miami-Dade County
approved, in principle, a $420 million
ballpark plan.Before anyone gets too excited, there have been agreements in principle
before in the Marlins’ saga, going back to Wayne Huizenga’s tenure as team
owner. Right now, the whole thing’s contingent on getting money from the
state. Since some Florida legislators want to re-name the team the
Terrorists (hey, it’s better than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim)
you’d have to think the funding isn’t exactly in the bag. Stay tuned. -
Nostradamus Wouldn’t Stand for “God Bless America” Either: In
deciding to move to South Florida rather than Flushing, N.Y., Carlos
Delgado claimed–as many free agents are wont to do–that he made his
decision based upon which team was most likely to go to the World Series.What kind of future does Delgado have as a player/prognosticator? Let’s
ask PECOTA, with first base removed from both teams’ lineups to account
for the Marlins’ pre-Delgado state:Marlins Mets Pos. Player VORP Player VORP C LoDuca 16.3 Piazza 24.2 2B Castillo 20.3 Matsui 25.9 3B Lowell 33.0 Wright 32.4 SS Gonzalez 14.7 Reyes 12.7 LF Encarnacion 12.7 Floyd 23.1 CF Pierre 19.9 Beltran 51.6 RF Cabrera 43.0 Cameron 24.4 Hitters' Total 159.9 194.3
Carlos isn’t looking too good based upon the two teams’ lineups, since the
Mets wallop the Fish in VORP by 34.4 runs, roughly a three-win advantage.
The Mets’ attack looks to be well-balanced, and if Jose
Reyes is able to beat his projection, things could get
interesting in Queens. Meanwhile, Juan Encarnacion and
Alex Gonzalez–he of the least impressive 23 homers in
major league history–weigh down the Marlins’ attack like a pair of
concrete overshoes. What about the pitchers?SP Beckett 32.3 Martinez 53.3 SP Willis 31.2 Glavine 12.2 SP Burnett 23.3 Trachsel 9.7 SP Leiter 14.9 Benson 13.6 SP Valdez 4.7 Zambrano 4.7 RP Mota 14.8 Looper 14.9 RP Jones 8.3 DeJean 9.1 RP Bump 6.9 Bottalico 7.1 Pitchers' Total 136.4 124.6 Team's Total 296.3 318.9
The Marlins make up some of the difference on the pitching side, with
Florida’s young top three expected to provide more production than
Pedro Martinez and a bunch of guys who are old
(Tom Glavine), mediocre (Kris Benson) or
hurt (Victor Zambrano). Surprisingly, Guillermo
Mota is expected to be a dead ringer for Mets’ closer
Braden Looper, VORP-wise. Still, PECOTA gives the Mets
the overall edge in the “who’s more likely to go to the Series”
sweepstakes.Still, there’s one last factor that Delgado might’ve considered:
1B Delgado 42.5 Mientkiewicz 12.7 New Total 338.8 331.6
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From the Nostalgia File, Part I: In honor of BP 2005–our 10th
annual, hitting the shelves in a couple of weeks–we’re going to look at a
few comments from a past BP on Delgado.Carlos Delgado (1999): Delgado’s fast comeback was a huge surprise, and
he went on to enjoy his best season yet. For sluggers, doing this at this
age isn’t extraordinary…Statistically, the expectation should be that he
won’t be much better than he’s been, but I can’t shake the feeling that
he’s going to have a better career than your typical slow slugger.Turns out that 1998 wasn’t even the tip of the iceberg. Since
1999, Delgado has hit 251 homers, and been in the top 10 in OBP or
slugging or both, each year. Better than your typical slow slugger,
indeed.Still, Delgado would have to be an extraordinary player, indeed, to meet
one of the incentives contained in his new contract. In order to
guarantee a fifth year at $16 million to his contract, Delgado needs to
earn 30 points, on a system where he gets 10 points for winning the
League MVP down to one point for finishing 10th, 10 points for being the
LCS MVP, and 20 points for winning the World Series MVP.Under this system, here are the top point-getters over the past four years:
MVP WS/LCS TOTAL Albert Pujols 33 10 43 Barry Bonds 40 0 40 Manny Ramirez 17 20 37 Alex Rodriguez 24 0 24 Randy Johnson 4 20 24 David Ortiz 13 10 23 Curt Schilling 2 20 22 Troy Glaus 0 20 20 Josh Beckett 0 20 20 Lance Berkman 18 0 18
As you can see, although it’s not quite Curt
Schilling‘s “when the Red Sox win the World Series” clause,
Delgado better hope the Fish make a habit of the post-season if he’s to
have any chance of vesting that fifth year. Over his entire career,
Delgado has a total of 16 points for two top-five MVP finishes.
New York Yankees
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A Jason Giambi Valentine: All our Valentine’s Days could look like
this, if we only took our relationship advice from Jason Giambi:“C’mon baby, let’s make up. It’s Valentine’s Day. You know I love you,
and I’m really sorry for what I did.”“What does that mean?”
“Y’know, I’m sorry I let you down, baby. I apologize. Now come here, let
me put my arms around you.”“How’d you let me down?”
“Now, you know I can’t talk about that baby. Isn’t it enough that I’m
really, truly sorry?”“Yeah, that’s nice, but what are you sorry you did?”
“Uh, um. OK. I’m sorry I hurt your feelings, baby. I was very hurtful,
and it was wrong, and I wanna make it up to you.”“Just tell me what you did to hurt my feelings, and it’ll be a start.”
“I don’t want to get into that, baby. Isn’t it enough that I apologize?”
“You’d better start making sense soon, or I’m going to leave.”
“This is the last thing I want to say on this subject: I promise, I’ll
never do it again.”“Do WHAT again? Aaaaargh!” [She stomps out of the room, slams the door,
goes out to a bar, and has a one-night stand with some random guy.]Maybe it works better if you have Arn Tellem sitting next to you…
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Pine Time Players: The Yanks are unleashing a horde of NRIs on a
quest to try and capture the 25th, 24th, and possibly 23rd spots on the
roster:Age 2004 VORP PECOTA VORP Doug Glanville 34 - 8.6 -3.2 Damian Rolls 27 -13.3 2.5 Homer Bush 32 -1.6 N/A Russ Johnson 32 N/A 4.5 Ramiro Mendoza 33 9.4 6.8 Buddy Groom 39 6.8 6.3
These are the highlights, we’re not counting the Mike Ventos, Marc
Valdeses, Colin Porters or David Parrishes of the world. Doug
Glanville was invited as a defensive replacement for
Bernie Williams, or as a concession to Yankee beat
writers in need of a good quote. While Glanville was once a top gloveman
in center, the last few years he’s been about average by our measures, and
he’s a giant vacuum on offense. Over the past three years, Glanville’s
hit .246/.281/.329. He could make Joe Torre yearn for
Kenny Lofton.Damian Rolls can handle three infield spots and play the
outfield, and he has a little speed. He’s a super utility guy in the
Joe McEwing mold–right down to the weak hitting. Rolls’
problem is that the Yankees already have a player like this on the
roster-Tony Womack. They don’t need another guy
who can back up at every position and-pinch run from time to time. What
they need is a starting second baseman, so they can use Womack in that
utility role.Ramiro Mendoza and Buddy Groom enter an
already overstuffed bullpen situation. While the Yankees are actually
short on lefty relief, Groom’s stats don’t indicate success in the
specialist role the Yanks would need of him. Over the past three years,
right-handers have produced a .728 OPS against him; he’s held lefties to a similar
.710 OPS.It’s tempting to file away Mendoza as another sign of the Yankees’
nostalgic reattachment to the championship teams of the 90’s. Still, last
year the Yanks were well-served by an
old-timer who got a rehab-and-make-good minor league contract, so
you never know. -
From the Nostalgia File, Part II: This time, we’re walking down a
pinstriped memory lane with a Dodgers comment:Kevin Brown (2003): Brown’s injuries prompted
management to throw more money at pitching help before last season,
ignoring the multiple offensive holes in the lineup.That was written two years ago while Brown was with the Dodgers, but
change the word “offensive” for “defensive,” and it would fit right into
BP 2005. Just as Brown’s 2001 injury prompted the Dodgers to acquire
Hideo Nomo, Omar Daal, and Kaz Ishii, his injured and ineffective 2004 may
well have prompted the Carl Pavano and Jaret
Wright signings, restricting the Yankees’ ability–or at least their desire–to acquire a
better center fielder and/or second baseman.PECOTA sees the Yankee defense lining up as follows in 2005:
1B Tino Martinez 94 1B +2 Jason Giambi 91 1B -6 2b Tony Womack 101 2B -7 Rey Sanchez 50 2B +1 SS Derek Jeter 145 SS -4 3B Alex Rodriguez 148 3B +9 LF Hideki Matsui 142 LF -6 CF Bernie Williams 123 CF -12 RF Gary Sheffield 142 RF -4
Outfield defense is a priority the Yankees are putting off until next
year. They shouldn’t. Randy Johnson is being blamed for
the team’s failure to land Carlos Beltran, who would’ve
patched that hole in center field. But some of the blame should be put on Kevin Brown.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Satisfaction Not Guaranteed: The Pirates are bringing a bunch of
down-on-their-luck old favorites to Brandenton as non-roster invitees:Age 2004 VORP PECOTA VORP Chris Enochs 29 N/A 10.2 Graham Koonce 30 N/A 6.9 Ben Grieve 29 12.5 6.3 Joe Roa 33 10.8 5.5 Howie Clark 31 -3.4 3.6 Jose Leon 28 N/A 0.8 Kirk Bullinger 35 -2.6 0.5 Todd Ritchie 33 -3.5 0.3 Brian Reith 27 -4.5 N/A Cesar Crespo 26 -8.1 N/A
We’re still waiting for the episode of Unsolved Mysteries that deals with
Ben Grieve. With apologies to Robert Stack: “If you have
any information about Ben Grieve’s lost power, or which could lead to its
recapture, please call David Littlefield, care of the Pirates front
office.” As things stand right now, Grieve could still provide the Bucs
some much-needed OBP in a limited outfield role. But if there were such a
thing as a Leo Mazzone of batting coaches, we’d sure like him to make
Grieve’s acquaintance.Graham Koonce will be battling for the same spot as
Grieve–lefty bat with a good batting eye, corner fill-in. His stock has
dropped a bunch since his Ken Phelps All-Star 2003 season, as Koonce’s Triple-A
performance last season was only good enough for a .224 MjEqA. Chris
Enochs’ claim to fame is that he’s the best pitcher in West Virginia
Mountaineer history, a former first-round pick of the Oakland A’s.
Jose Leon has been traded for both Will
Clark and Mike Timlin–that tops his career
achievements list. Cesar Crespo was Theo Epstein’s first
acquisition as Boston’s GM. Crespo’s batting eye abandoned him
in the Red Sox organization, and in 2004 he was jettisoned before the playoffs after a performance (.165/.165/.215) that was scarier than a beer-soaked Ron Artest. Any one of these players could become a feel-good
story with a few good weeks in the Grapefruit League. -
From the Nostalgia File, Part III: We’ll explore near history in
the Pirates’ player comments:Mike Gonzalez (2004): Now healthy, he gets his fastball
up over 95 and has a good slider. Command is a concern, but it’ll come,
either this year or next.As things turn out, “it” came this year (55 strikeouts versus six walks in
43.1 innings pitched). Still, there’s some disconnect between Gonzalez’s
excellent traditional stats (3-1, 1.25 ERA) and his performance preventing
inherited runners from scoring.Let’s look at this using BP’s reliever evaluation tools. The Relievers
Expected Wins Added Report shows Gonzalez with an R&O_E(W) (man, does this
stat need a nickname, like “Reliever Coolness Factor”) of 1.141. That’s
roughly in the range of Ricardo Rincon (1.229),
Joe Horgan (1.189) and Grant Balfour
(1.123). Not bad, but you wouldn’t call it elite. Looking directly at
Gonzalez’s inherited runners allowed from our Inherited/Bequeathed
Runners Report puts Gonzalez at -3.0 inherited runners prevented, roughly the
same area as Felix Heredia (-2.6) and Terry
Adams (-3.3). That’s pretty ugly.As noted on the Baseball Graphs Web site, Gonzalez had three particularly damaging appearances in June that might explain some of the discrepancy.
PECOTA remains bullish on Gonzalez, predicting a 19.7 VORP, and a 33.8%
chance of a breakout season in 2005.
–Derek Jacques
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