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September 29, 2004
Lies, Damned Lies
A Hall of Famer
Barry Larkin has decided to come back for another season, a fact that is sure to provoke some chuckles among those who believe that he is trivializing his Hall of Fame candidacy by hanging on too long. That criticism isn't fair on several levels, and is a moot point: barring a late-career breakout of unprecedented proportions, nothing Larkin does from this point forward is going to have any bearing on his Cooperstown merits one way or the other.
Larkin, unfortunately, gets hammered from both ends: he brings out certain detractors who claim that he did not have a strong enough peak, and others who claim that he did not sustain his greatness for a long enough period, citing his recent struggles as evidence. Neither of those claims has much basis in reality.
One reasonable way to avoid rehashing the whole peak/career squabble is simply to look at a player's value over his N best seasons. For example, using Clay Davenport's WARP3 figures, we might look at Larkin's career thusly:
We have what appears to be a very neat, orderly progression, with a handful of excellent seasons that boost Larkin's WARP total, several more very good seasons that enhance it somewhat, and a number of forgettable years at both ends of his career that don't have much of an impact. Whatever we think the standard ought to be for Hall of Fame election, we have a data point to support it. It doesn't mean very much, however, unless we compare Larkin's numbers with those of his contemporaries.
The graph above is an abbreviated listing; let's see how Larkin matches up against the eight shortstops who were elected by the writers (Luis Aparicio, Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau, Joe Cronin, Rabbit Maranville, Ozzie Smith, Honus Wagner and Robin Yount; Arky Vaughan, somehow, had to wait for the Veterans Committee), as well as Alan Trammell, Ryne Sandberg, Cal Ripken Jr. and the members of the 21st-century Trinity. (I am aware that Sandberg played second base. However, his career is a good parallel for Larkin's).
Here are how these infielders did in their best individual seasons:
Peak Season WARP Ripken 15.7 Wagner 14.8 Rodriguez 14.4 Boudreau 12.7 Trammell 12.4 Appling 12.2 Yount 12.0 Larkin 10.9 Cronin 10.8 Jeter 10.8 Garciaparra 10.8 Sandberg 10.8 Smith 10.5 Aparicio 7.8 Maranville 7.4Larkin's finest performance came in 1996, when he posted a robust .298/.410/.567 line while winning a Gold Glove Award. Why he received so little attention in the MVP balloting that year remains a mystery (he finished 12th behind the likes of Brian Jordan and Steve Finley), though Alex Rodriguez's arrival might have had something to do with it. This season is perfectly in line with the career years put up by other Hall of Famers; sure, Larkin is no Ripken, no Honus Wagner, but he shouldn't need to be to qualify for enshrinement.
Here is how Larkin performed at three- and five-year intervals. Remember, these are simply Larkin's three and five best seasons; they need not be consecutive.
Top 3 Seasons WARP Rodriguez 42.5 Ripken 42.5 Wagner 38.9 Boudreau 35.7 Yount 33.3 Appling 32.1 Trammell 31.9 Larkin 31.2 Cronin 31.1 Sandberg 31.1 Garciaparra 30.5 Smith 29.2 Jeter 27.9 Aparicio 22.7 Maranville 21.8 Top 5 Seasons WARP Rodriguez 68.5 Ripken 64.3 Wagner 61.8 Boudreau 56.6 Yount 53.0 Cronin 50.4 Trammell 50.4 Sandberg 50.2 Appling 49.9 Larkin 49.9 Garciaparra 48.1 Smith 47.1 Jeter 42.5 Aparicio 36.2 Maranville 34.9Once again, Rodriguez, Ripken and Wagner stand out. Larkin holds his own, ranking ahead of four of the eight Hall of Famers in three-year value, and three of the eight (tying with Appling) in five-year value. Larkin was particularly underrated during the period from 1990-1992, when he was at his defensive peak and putting up outstanding offensive numbers in an era before doing so was commonplace for shortstops.
At the risk of being redundant, let's take a look at the same numbers after 10- and 15- year intervals. We will exclude Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra from these comparisons since they have not played enough seasons to get a fair shake.
Top 10 Seasons WARP Wagner 115.4 Ripken 108.6 A-Rod 107.2 Boudreau 94.9 Cronin 89.9 Yount 88.9 Larkin 87.8 Appling 87.3 Sandberg 86.2 Trammell 84.7 Ozzie 84.5 Maranville 64.4 Aparicio 64.3 Top 15 Seasons WARP Wagner 160.3 Ripken 142.2 Ozzie 114.5 Yount 112.8 Appling 111.6 Trammell 108.8 Larkin 108.7 Sandberg 104.8 Cronin 101.7 Boudreau 100.8 Maranville 84.6 Aparicio 82.9Some quick observations:
It is not clear that Larkin will fail to be elected. However, the poor showings of Trammell and Sandberg, whose careers closely parallel Larkin's, do not bode well for his chances. I am not suggesting that the BBWAA electors ought to look at WARP and ignore everything else, though you'd think that Larkin would get some credit for sticking with the same team for so long and for winning a championship.
It seems the problem with Larkin is the same problem that Trammell had, which is that he's so damned quiet. There are few signature moments to remember him by--Larkin was overshadowed on the 1990 championship team by Chris Sabo, Billy Hatcher and the Nasty Boys, among others, just as Trammell was overshadowed in 1984 by Kirk Gibson. He did not break any major records and will not reach any major statistical milestones. He has a well-balanced statistical profile, without excelling in any particular category other than stolen-base percentage. Larkin plays for a team in the middle of the country, and that team has not been involved in too many pennant races. He does not have a distinct mode of speaking, nor a distinct batting stance.
But Barry Larkin is a Hall of Famer, and the baseball community ought to be happy to have him back in the saddle for one last season.