September 16, 2004

Lies, Damned Lies

Top 50 Prospects Report

by Nate Silver

Now that the minor-league seasons are complete, and the better prospects are being rewarded with eighth-inning at-bats against Devil Rays to Be Named Later and the tab at the group outing to the strip club, let's take a look at the performances of the position player representatives on our Top 50 Prospects list. This review has been written from a PECOTA standpoint; I am not going to rehash the merits or lack thereof of our particular rankings, a topic we can talk about during the off-season.

For each player, I have provided the weighted mean EqA projection as determined by PECOTA, along with the actual major-league equivalent EqA as provided by Clay Davenport (whom you'll be happy to know is safe and sound in Maryland and not bruising a cornea or something trying to chase down Hurricane Ivan). Players are divided into groups according to where they placed relative to their PECOTA percentile forecast. For players who performed at multiple venues this season, we have combined their production at all levels.

Dramatically Exceeded Expectations (90th percentile or better)

Player              Level      Actual EqA     Projected EqA

Joe Mauer            MLB         .309            .232
David Wright      AA/AAA/MLB     .281            .227
B.J. Upton        AA/AAA/MLB     .268            .222

Neither David Wright nor B.J. Upton are going to win their league's Rookie of the Year award, but they are without a doubt this season's shining stars. Wright is likely to draw some of the same comparables that Miguel Cabrera had before this season: Gary Sheffield, Ron Santo, Eric Chavez, all of whom were above-average major-league regulars by the time that they hit age 21. It is hard to find fault with Wright's performance: all aspects of his offensive game (contact, power, plate discipline) have improved markedly this season, and all have held up beautifully at three levels. The only question is whether he will be "merely" a very good player like Scott Rolen, or a true superstar like Mike Schmidt (who, by the way, did not become a major leaguer for good until age 23).

Upton profiles an awful lot like Roberto Alomar did, with a combination of good athleticism and a great hitting approach that is tough to improve upon. Comparisons to Robin Yount, Alan Trammell and Derek Jeter also work, but might be too modest; Trammell and Jeter were not real offensive threats until they were 22, and Yount until he was 24. So few players become major-league regulars at age 19 that PECOTA may have a tough time getting a handle on Upton until 2006.

Question of the day: is Joe Mauer's value higher or lower than it was a year ago at this time? I vote lower: injury problems tend to compound over time and a catcher with knee problems is a potential disaster.

Markedly Exceeded Expectations (75th percentile through 90th percentile)

Player              Level      Actual EqA     Projected EqA

Dallas McPherson    AA/AAA       .263            .250
Khalil Greene        MLB         .284            .252
Jason Bay            MLB         .305            .282

Dallas McPherson is one of my favorite prospects, and he has a good chance to crack our top five next year. PECOTA likened him to Jim Thome before the year began. His 2004 performance should do nothing to change that. Khalil Greene's performance was a little bit overlooked this year, in part because of the offense-dampening effects of Petco Park. Particularly important was the improvement in his plate discipline, as those changes tend to stick. Greene is already 24, so he's unlikely to experience a huge amount of improvement from this point forward; more likely he will put together a string of six or seven seasons that look an awful lot like this one. Jason Bay's breakout year was news to a lot of people, but not to PECOTA, which found a lot to like in his 2003 performance and gave him a very healthy forecast. He does not profile as the sort of player who is likely to maintain a high batting average, but the power spike is here to stay. Bay is more likely to end up like Jay Buhner than Rusty Greer.

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