After both Derek Zumsteg and Joe Sheehan covered Ichiro Suzuki‘s chances at hitting .400 yesterday, I figured I’d take a quick look at Barry Bonds‘ chances of turning the trick.
Following Monday’s loss to the Braves, Bonds has played in 117 games. He’s racked up 112 hits in 305 AB, for a .367213 (.367) batting average. If he got hits in each of his next 17 AB, his average would stand at .400621, so he needs a minimum of 17 AB to reach .400.
He’s played in 88% of the Giants’ games, which if he continues to do so for
the rest of the year, means about 26 more games. He’s averaging 2.61 AB/G
(and 1.56 BB/G), which would give him about 67 more at-bats the rest of the
year.
What would he then need to hit over the next month to reach .400? For 67 AB, 37 hits (.552) would give him a .400538 batting average.
What about for other AB totals? Well, with 26 games left for the Giants, and assuming ~5-6 PA/game, the most AB Bonds could conceivably get is about 150, which itself would require a gigantic reversal of how he’s being pitched to, and how often he walks. That said, let’s look at how he’d have to perform at various levels of ABs up to 150 for the rest of the season to hit .400.
PROB is the probability of a batter with Bonds’ 2004 current established
level of .367213 batting average, hitting well enough in the specified
number of AB remaining to reach a legitimate .400 batting average for the
season (no rounding needed).
AB H AVG YR_AB YR_H YR_AVG PROB 17 17 1.000 322 129 0.400621 0.000004% 20 18 0.900 325 130 0.400000 0.000119% 30 22 0.733 335 134 0.400000 0.005006% 40 26 0.650 345 138 0.400000 0.026256% 50 30 0.600 355 142 0.400000 0.069050% 60 34 0.567 365 146 0.400000 0.130538% 70 38 0.543 375 150 0.400000 0.204812% 80 42 0.525 385 154 0.400000 0.286020% 90 46 0.511 395 158 0.400000 0.369471% 100 50 0.500 405 162 0.400000 0.451777% 110 54 0.491 415 166 0.400000 0.530659% 120 58 0.483 425 170 0.400000 0.604688% 130 62 0.477 435 174 0.400000 0.673049% 140 66 0.471 445 178 0.400000 0.735357% 150 70 0.467 455 182 0.400000 0.791519%
Somewhat surprisingly, Bonds is more likely to reach .400 the more AB he gets, rather than with fewer, because of the ground he’d need to make up. But based on how what he’s done so far in 2004, it looks very unlikely (0.2% chance) that he’ll pull his average up to .400.
A few more days like Sunday’s 4-for-5, though, and he could make it interesting.
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