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August 25, 2004

Can Of Corn

The Way We Were

by Dayn Perry

Barry Bonds soldiers on at demigod level. Adrian Beltre is on pace to crack 51 homers. There's the blanket party that is the Cardinals' heart of the order. Todd Helton continues to rack up numbers that defy the "Coors Discount." Carlos Guillen becomes the best-hitting shortstop in the game. I could go on.

This season, we're seeing some remarkable statistical bestowals from hitters around baseball. To put a finer point on it, if paces hold, we'll have five hitters eclipse the 90.0 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) mark (VORP projections determined by multiplying VORP-per-plate appearance times projected number of end-of-season plate appearances):

Hitter          Projected VORP      Current Rate Stats
B. Bonds        145.8               .371/.612/.822
A. Pujols        98.0               .321/.405/.642
T. Helton        95.9               .333/.458/.622
S. Rolen         92.4               .329/.414/.623
A. Beltre        91.3               .333/.380/.643

There's a little less than six weeks to go in the regular season, which means the following guys, with even modest productivity gains, could join the above litany of 90-plussers:

Hitter           Projected VORP     Current Rate Stats
J. Edmonds       88.9               .304/.421/.630
M. Loretta       88.5               .344/.395/.518
M. Mora          87.0               .348/.425/.594

That's potentially eight hitters with at least a reasonable shot at making the 90.0 VORP cutoff. Impressive, no?

Yes, but it's not a record. Most fans, when reflecting upon the seasons in recent history that provided us with a lion's share of staggering individual performances, will think of 1998, when Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire hawked down Roger Maris' single-season home run record. Or maybe they'll think of 2001, when Bonds re-wrote the record books with the revisionist vigor of a Texas schoolbook committee.

However, in terms of hitters reaching or surpassing a 90.0 VORP, 1996 and 2000, with a total of 11 hitters in each season, are tops. Here are the numbers:

2000

Hitter           VORP            Rate Stats
C. Delgado       114.3           .344/.470/.664
A. Rodriguez     111.1           .316/.420/.606
J. Giambi        106.2           .333/.476/.647
N. Garciaparra   104.2           .372/.434/.599
J. Kent          102.4           .334/.424/.596
T. Helton         97.8           .372/.463/.698
F. Thomas         94.1           .328/.436/.625
B. Bonds          93.8           .306/.440/.688
S. Sosa           93.1           .320/.406/.634
V. Guerrero       92.2           .345/.410/.664
M. Ramirez        90.4           .351/.457/.697