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August 18, 2004

Can Of Corn

With A Bullet

by Dayn Perry

Bullet points, for the people:

• That certain San Fran Giant just keeps on cutting a swath through the league. Look at these post-Break numbers: .405/.537/.750.

  The hitch is that I'm actually talking about noted cipher J.T. Snow and not he who has turned the sublime into the banal (who is hitting a tidy .316/.545/.709 himself since that stunningly lame evening in Houston). But Snow's not the only Giant in aberrant rarified air of late.

  Michael Tucker is clouting .319/.413/.543 since the All-Star Game, and Dustan Mohr and Yorvit Torrealba are hitting .385/.468/.673 and .344/.382/.500, respectively, over that same span. In light of those performances, it's little wonder that the Giants, among NL squads, trail only the Cardinals in runs scored since the break. Of course, since all of those players, other than Barry Bonds, figure to regress in the coming weeks, the Giant offensive attack is poised to deteriorate down the stretch. Something for Cubs and Padres backers to keep in mind.

• At this writing, Alex Sanchez, So Taguchi and Brandon Inge lead the majors in productive-outs percentage, the regrettable and largely useless product of idle hands and consistent decline at ESPN.com. When the answer is Alex Sanchez, are you really asking the right question?

• You've probably heard a great deal about the 2004 renaissance of Indians second-base prospect Brandon Phillips. Presently, he's hitting .308/.370/.428 at Triple-A Buffalo. Those aren't bad numbers, but perhaps more importantly, they constitute a quantum improvement over his thoroughly abysmal showing last season. Though before we label him a strong buy once again, let's take a look at his monthly splits this season, all compiled at Buffalo:

  
  Month       Rate Stats         UBB/AB     ISO
  ---------------------------------------------
  April       .369/.455/.508     9/65      .139
  May         .219/.283/.333     9/96      .114
  June        .330/.368/.462     5/106     .132
  July        .360/.421/.430     11/100    .070
  August      .264/.333/.431     5/72      .167
  Total       .308/.370/.428     39/439    .120
  

  In terms of peripherals, Phillips has posted an adequate walk rate only in April. His Isolated Power numbers have been uniformly sub-optimal, although he did show a nice spike in August. His batting average peppers the continuum from patently inadequate (.219 in May) to superlative (.369 in April). Such is the nature of batting average. And the problem with Phillips, even during this nominal period of skills recovery, is that too much of his value is tied up in batting average.

  He's still only 23, but in his entire career he's never had a season in which be posted both a strong walk rate and promising raw-power indicators. Even in his breakout season at Double-A Harrisburg in 2002, Phillips didn't walk, and his ISO of .179, while certainly solid, didn't betray a great deal of projectable power. He'll likely have a major league career of some import, but Phillips still doesn't look like a future star.

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