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August 12, 2004

Prospectus Today

Excitement on the Reservation

by Joe Sheehan

When I make my preseason predictions, I don't go entirely by what the numbers tell me. I'm willing to make a potentially embarrassing call if I believe that a team has a chance to go sharply in one direction or another. Sometimes this leads to great moments (picking the '02 Mets to finish last, for instance), and sometimes I drive off the cliff (any time I've picked the Padres or Reds to do anything).

So it feels good to have called a big surprise in the AL Central this year. I knew that one of the disappointing teams from last year would rise up, surprise the pundits, and stay in the division race deep into the summer.

I just had the wrong one.

The Cleveland Indians open today just three games out of first place in the AL Central, thanks in part to an 18-10 record since the All-Star break. For a team that I picked to be the worst in the American League--the Tigers were my choice to shock the world--this is a heck of an achievement. How did they get here?

First things first: The record is real. The Tribe is outplaying its projected record by about three games, largely on the strength of a weak schedule. (The Twins, just as an example, are outplaying their projection by five games.) Like the Twins and Tigers, the Indians are basically a .500 team that's benefiting from the White Sox's inability to play to their component skills. That's not to say that they're not catching some breaks: The Tribe has an AL-best 22 one-run wins, and their 22-14 record in those games (8-4 since the All-Star Game) is the best in the league.

This isn't a balanced team. The Indians are in a race because their offense has exceeded expectations, bludgeoning all comers. They lead the AL in runs and are third in the circuit in EqA. The offense has been built on two poles--doubles and OBP, categories in which they lead MLB. For a team that had seen its runs scored decline in every year since 1999, and had one of the worst offenses in baseball last year, it's been a reminder of the heady days of the 1990s, when the Indians had a dominant offense that would be among the league leaders in those categories in most years.